AccuScore’s NBA pick of the day – Spurs at Rockets – SportingNews.com
Rebounding key to matchup
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Dwight HowardOne of the two Thursday night NBA games features a showdown in Texas, as the defending champ Spurs go to Houston to face a Rockets team that has yet to be defeated this season (8:05 p.m. ET, TNT).
After performing 10,000 simulations of tonight’s game, AccuScore has the Rockets as solid 66 percent favorites to win, The money-line odds on the Rockets are -170 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, which implies about a 63 percent chance to win. AccuScore’s forecast suggests Houston’s money-line odds should be -194, making the -170 price a bargain.
But if laying -170 isn’t appealing to you, AccuScore gives Houston nearly a 57 percent chance of covering a 3-spread. The average score after the simulations is 101-97.
Although the Spurs’ probability at a close win (4 points or fewer) is fairly comparable to the Rockets’, the disparity in probability of a big win (10 points or more) indicates Houston will more than likely come out on top. The Rockets have more than twice the chance of the Spurs to win the game by 10 points or more.
For more valuable wagering information: Visit AccuScore
AccuScore box score: One category in the simulated box score stands out: rebounds. The Rockets out-rebound the Spurs by nearly eight in the 10,000 sims. Most importantly, Houston finishes with four more offensive rebounds than does San Antonio. Given Dwight Howard’s presence in the paint, four extra possessions will lead to easy buckets.
Spurs projected leaders
Tony Parker: 15 points, 6 assists, 1 steal
Tim Duncan: 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks
Rockets projected leaders
James Harden: 27 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds
Dwight Howard: 16 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks
More NBA from The Linemakers: Live odds | Thursday’s matchups | ATS standings Visit AccuScore.com for more NBA picks
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