Week 10 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas’ Midweek Betting Odds and Lines – Bleacher Report
In the interest of honesty, NFL fans should know that Week 10 doesn’t offer the most promising schedule.
Three matchups feature a pair of winning teams, which is misleading considering those require viewers to take a leap of faith and accept the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns as legitimate 5-3 clubs. When the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins are playing the game of the week, it isn’t the best week for football.
That will happen when six teams take a bye and three of them are the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. On the bright side, not every contest needs to harbor Super Bowl implications to captivate audiences for three hours. Many fans love the thrill of competition regardless of who takes the field.
And then there are those with betting interests. Anything to make the New York Jets interesting, am I right? For the gambling brethren out there, here’s a look at odds heading into Week 10.
Away | Home | Line | Prediction |
Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN -7 | 23-20 CIN |
Kansas City Chiefs | Buffalo Bills | Even | 20-13 KC |
Miami Dolphins | Detroit Lions | DET -2.5 | 24-21 MIA |
Dallas Cowboys | Jacksonville Jaguars | DAL -7.5 | 28-14 DAL |
San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints | NO -4.5 | 31-23 NO |
Pittsburgh Steelers | New York Jets | PIT -4.5 | 34-16 PIT |
Tennessee Titans | Baltimore Ravens | BAL -10.5 | 35-17 BAL |
Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Even | 28-27 ATL |
Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders | DEN -12.5 | 42-14 DEN |
St. Louis Rams | Arizona Cardinals | ARI -8 | 24-13 ARI |
New York Giants | Seattle Seahawks | SEA-10 | 27-10 SEA |
Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | GB -8 | 37-27 GB |
Carolina Panthers | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI -7 | 27-23 PHI |
Odds via OddShark.com
Betting lines via Odds Shark as of early Wednesday morning.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored 94 points in their past two games. The Jets have scored 92 points in their past six games—all losses. When they host the Steelers on Sunday, two months will have passed since the Jets won a game.
This contest opened with a 2.5-point line in Pittsburgh’s favor that quickly soared to 4.5. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have a worse point differential than the Jets. Meanwhile, the Steelers demolished the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, who rank No. 2 and 3, respectively, in total scoring margin despite suffering lopsided losses to Mike Tomlin‘s surging squad.
Jets quarterbacks have amassed eight passing touchdowns this season. Ben Roethlisberger has tallied 12 in the last two games. Per ESPN Stats and Info, that has never happened before:
Ben Roethlisberger: 1st QB in NFL history to throw for 12 TD in a 2-game span (via @eliassports)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 3, 2014
Although the New York Mets once again missed the cut for October baseball, they’ve produced several more victories than the Jets since Week 1 of the NFL season. Allow The New York Times’ Ben Shpigel to remind us all how bad Gang Green is:
The Mets have won 11 games since the Jets last won.
— Ben Shpigel (@benshpigel) November 3, 2014
Get the point yet? Anything can happen on any given Sunday and all that jazz, but there’s no way to rationally look at the mountains of evidence pointing to Pittsburgh as a monumental favorite. Roethlisberger can’t possibly keep throwing six passing touchdowns every game, but regression won’t strike its hardest against a banged-up New York secondary.
Prediction: Steelers 34, Jets 16
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
With two 5-3 AFC squads clashing, the oddsmakers are framing this as a toss-up, with the current line even. Records are deceiving, however, and the Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs contest hardly merits pick-em status.
Ever since an ugly Week 1 loss to the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs are one of the NFL’s hottest teams. They have notched a plus-78 point differential over that stretch, dropping two single-digit losses to the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers.
With three victories of three points or less, the Bills could just as easily have a 3-5 mark at the moment. While Kyle Orton has stabilized the quarterback position, he’ll face a tough challenge against the NFL’s No. 1 passing defense.
Entering Week 8, Kansas City placed No. 4 in Football Outsiders’ defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric, while the Bills ranked No. 16. As the league’s only actual New York team took a bye in Week 9, the Chiefs padded their hot streak with a win over the Jets.
Despite even records, a gap exists between these two squads. Look for the Chiefs to create some separation with a victory on Sunday.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bills 13
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Going all October without a victory coaxed the betting line to depict the Carolina Panthers as underdogs against Mark Sanchez.
Yes, the same Sanchez who owns a 55.2 completion percentage over his career with one more interception (71) than passing touchdowns. In the place of Nick Foles, who suffered a broken collarbone during Week 9 that will cost him six to eight weeks, Sanchez went 18-of-22 with 202 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Chip Kelly doesn’t sound concerned about the Philadelphia Eagles’ outlook without Foles, per The Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Zach Berman:
I feel great about Mark. We felt great about him all along. I always said you need two quarterbacks. …I thought he did a great job in our system. He played outstanding in the preseason and showed no rust when he got in there against Houston yesterday. We feel real confident. We feel obviously really bad for Nick that he’s out, but we feel very confident in Mark if we have to go in that direction.
Part of that confidence stems from the fact that Philadelphia went 6-2 despite of Foles, who generated a 59.9 completion percentage while turning the ball over 13 times. Hey, Sanchez can be inaccurate and turn the ball over a bunch as well!
For the Eagles to pull out a victory, they’ll need a monster day from LeSean McCoy, who has registered 3.9 yards per carry this season. Yet Carolina ranks No. 26 in rushing defense, and McCoy has averaged 116.3 rushing yards over his past three games. This would be the ideal time for vintage Shady to resurface.
From a spread standpoint, the Panthers are poised to come out as winners given Sanchez and Philadelphia’s secondary woes. Where it actually matters, they’ll extend their win drought with McCoy rushing the Eagles to victory.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Panthers 23
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