NFL Predictions Week 10: Early Odds, Picks and Projections for Upcoming … – Bleacher Report
Early-week underdogs in the NFL picks department can put bettors ahead in a major way.
That is, if they can properly identify the surefire underdogs to bet before the lines dramatically shift as others throw coin down on the full slate.
Funnily enough, it seems underdogs have been ripe for the picking this season, but actually being confident enough to roll against Seattle at home or Denver in general is quite rare.
No, let’s play a bit closer to the vest this time around to identify some underdogs. They will not pay out as much as some of those rare occurrences, but they are more likely and give bettors a sound chance of trumping the house.
NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread
Matchup | Spread | Pick ATS | Reason |
Cleveland at Cincinnati (Thurs., Nov. 6) | CIN -7 | CLE | Cincinnati is going to win, but not by almost a touchdown in an AFC North clash. |
Kansas City at Buffalo | KC -1.5 | KC | Kansas City’s offense finally seems to be turning things around and will move the ball well against the Buffalo defense. |
Miami at Detroit | DET -2 | DET | Miami is on a roll, but Detroit has an elite offense and defense and is at home. |
Dallas at Jacksonville | DAL -7.5 | DAL | The chance of no Tony Romo is scary, but so is DeMarco Murray against Jacksonville’s defense. |
San Francisco at New Orleans | NO -4.5 | NO | The Saints at home will be able to upend a reeling San Francisco team. |
Tennessee at Baltimore | BAL -10 | BAL | A two-win Tennessee team stands no chance against a surefire contender. |
Pittsburgh at NY Jets | PIT -5 | PIT | A quarterback issue in New York will only get worse with Pittsburgh in town. |
Atlanta at Tampa Bay | TB -1.5 | ATL | See analysis below. |
Denver at Oakland | DEN -11 | DEN | An angry Denver offense will have few issues blowing away one of the league’s worst overall rosters. |
St. Louis at Arizona | ARI -7 | STL | St. Louis has a way of keeping games close and just upended San Francisco. |
NY Giants at Seattle | SEA -7.5 | SEA | Seattle has been no sure thing at home this year but will be against an injured New York team. |
Chicago at Green Bay | GB -7.5 | GB | Green Bay had a week of rest to figure out Chicago’s defense, which is scary. |
Carolina at Philadelphia (Mon., Nov. 10) | PHI -6 | CAR | See analysis below. |
Source: ESPN, odds via Odds Shark.
Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 p.m. ET, Nov. 3.
Early Underdogs to Bet
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Reinhold Matay/Associated Press
While a contest between two teams with a combined three wins will not attract much attention on a global scale, it should draw the eyes of bettors on the hunt for a good deal.
The Atlanta Falcons are a tough horse to back, considering the team has lost five straight games, but it is easy to forget—and imperative to remember—that the Falcons blew away the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 back in Week 3.
Then, the Falcons rushed for 144 yards and three scores on the ground, and Matt Ryan misfired just three times en route to 286 yards and three scores. The defense actually looked competent, too, allowing just 153 passing yards and 64 rushing yards.
Which team wins?
Which team wins?
-
Falcons
-
Buccaneers
“I thought I had my football team ready to play,” Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith said after the loss, per ESPN.com. “Obviously, we weren’t ready to play.”
That quote would do well to explain the one-win Buccaneers most weeks, though. Smith continues to have no sound option under center, his leading rusher is Bobby Rainey and his defense just about ranks dead last against the pass.
Now, the Falcons do not rank much better, but the team at least showed well in Week 8 with a narrow one-point loss to one of the best teams in the league—Detroit. The Falcons also enter the contest coming off a bye and are led by Ryan, who has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 2,306 yards and 15 touchdowns to eight interceptions this season.
Ryan is going to shred Tampa Bay once more. Jump on this line before it shifts too much.
Prediction: Falcons 35, Buccaneers 17
Carolina at Philadelphia (-6)
The Carolina Panthers may be a bumbling mess right now, but the team has been gifted with a major break in Week 10 thanks to a matchup against a team without its starting quarterback.
Philadelphia is one of the league’s better teams, but a Week 8 loss and just a 10-point win over Houston last week have signaled a bit of a downward trend, which has only intensified thanks to an injury to quarterback Nick Foles, as detailed by Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports 1:
Eagles QB Nick Foles does not need surgery on his fractured collarbone, source says. Best possible news. Hope is he’s back in 6 weeks.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) November 3, 2014
In other words, Mark Sanchez is the starter under center for the Eagles on Monday Night Football, a dangerous recipe after he threw a pair of touchdowns and interceptions last week.
Which team wins?
Which team wins?
-
Panthers
-
Eagles
Now more than ever, the Panthers will be able to employ a ball-control offense to exploit a defense that ranks No. 23 against the pass and No. 20 against the rush. Cam Newton remains as versatile as ever, having thrown for 1,793 yards and eight scores with another 257 yards and a pair of scores on the ground.
Even better, the backfield behind Newton continues to get healthy, as DeAngelo Williams is back in the fold and Jonathan Stewart looked great upon his return last week with eight carries for 46 yards.
The Panthers are a safe play thanks to what is a must-win game, not to mention the injury issues for the home team. Bettors should feel comfortable with a line this large.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Eagles 20
Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, San Diego, Washington, Houston on bye.
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