NFL against the spread picks: Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. Enjoy
We’re pretty fortunate to have seen one of the great sports rivalries unfold before us this century.
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning don’t literally face each other – I assume they’ve never been on the field together for even one play in 15 head-to-head games – but it’s incredible to see one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time lead his team against one of the other greatest quarterbacks of all time. When they retire, many lists will have them as the top two ever. Which player gets the top spot will depend on your tastes in quarterbacks.
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Brady’s teams are 8-3 in Manning-Brady bowls in the regular season, but when the stakes are higher in the playoffs Manning’s teams are 2-2. When they’ve met in the conference championship game, the biggest game the two AFC lifers could play in against each other, Manning is 2-1. That’s pretty much the opposite of how most people want to paint the narrative of those two.
The rivalry has changed. For years, the Patriots as a team were much better than the Colts. The Patriots, for much of Manning’s career, were in the middle of one of the greatest runs in NFL history. That’s not the case anymore.
The Broncos are the best team in the NFL now. They are a much more complete team than last year, when they went to the Super Bowl, and in the AFC championship game looked like the clearly superior team … like Brady’s Patriots often did against Manning’s Colts. The Patriots are pretty good too (like Manning’s Colts were in the 2000s), but not quite as good as the Broncos.
I’ll take the better team for Sunday’s game. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Patriots, who have played like the Super Bowl contender we thought they were since the debacle at Kansas City, won at home. But I think this is a big proving ground for Denver, and the Broncos win and cover the minus-3 spread. But either way, hopefully this will be another Brady-Manning classic.
Here are the rest of the picks for this week, with the spreads as usual coming from Yahoo Pro Football Pick ‘em (and as always, clearly, just for entertainment):
Panthers (+3) over Saints (picked Thursday): The strategy of picking against the Road Saints didn’t work out well. The Panthers are in really bad shape.
Jaguars (+11) over Bengals: If there’s a spot for a letdown, it’s playing the Jaguars at home a week after an emotional, close win over the Ravens.
Browns (-6.5) over Buccaneers: The Buccaneers have already shown a propensity for not giving all that much effort. Do we think that they’re going to suddenly get fired up after the organization basically announced the season was over by trading two players for picks?
Cardinals (+4) over Cowboys: I might be overrating the Cardinals a bit – their average metrics don’t match up with their 6-1 record – but we saw what Tony Romo did against Washington’s blitz after he got hurt, and now he’s facing the most blitz-happy team in the NFL. Or Brandon Weeden starts, and that’s not changing my pick.
Chiefs (-9.5) over Jets: The Chiefs are legit, it seems. The Jets’ 1-7 record is just as legit.
Chargers (+2.5) over Dolphins: I know Miami is playing well, I just don’t think a good Chargers team lets a three-game losing streak happen.
Vikings (-1) over Redskins: Toughest game on the board to pick, because I have absolutely no idea what Robert Griffin III will do in his first game back.
Eagles (-2) over Texans: According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rating, the Eagles are eighth in defense, first in special teams and 23rd in offense. If we believe Chip Kelly finds a way to get the offense to click (and I do) that means the Eagles’ storm is coming.
Rams (+10) over 49ers: Hopefully the Rams don’t give up another terrible deep touchdown at the end of the first half against the 49ers.
Raiders (+15) over Seahawks: I just can’t give more than two touchdowns to any NFL team. I hope the Raiders team that almost beat the Patriots shows up.
Ravens (-1) over Steelers: Are the Steelers the team that destroyed the Colts? Or are they the team that lost at home to the Buccaneers and got destroyed by these same Ravens earlier in the season?
Colts (-3.5) over Giants: I know I shouldn’t take the road favorite on Monday night, but I can’t pick this Giants team over this Colts team.
Last week: 7-8
Season to date: 57-63
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
