College Football Picks Week 10: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams – Bleacher Report
With the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, each team now knows where it stands in the eyes of the committee. Of course, the only thing that matters is that the squads find ways to keep winning.
No matter where teams are at this point of the season, a lot can change over the next two months. Anyone can lose at any time, starting with this week, which features a number of dangerous matchups for the nation’s top programs.
Here is a look at the latest official Top 25, Bleacher Report’s Top 25 and predictions for Week 10 of the college football season.
Rank | Committee Top 25 | B/R Top 25 |
1 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State |
2 | Florida State | Florida State |
3 | Auburn | Alabama |
4 | Ole Miss | Notre Dame |
5 | Oregon | Auburn |
6 | Alabama | Oregon |
7 | TCU | Michigan State |
8 | Michigan State | Ole Miss |
9 | Kansas State | Georgia |
10 | Notre Dame | TCU |
11 | Georgia | Kansas State |
12 | Arizona | Baylor |
13 | Baylor | Ohio State |
14 | Arizona State | Arizona State |
15 | Nebraska | Arizona |
16 | Ohio State | Nebraska |
17 | Utah | LSU |
18 | Oklahoma | Utah |
19 | LSU | Oklahoma |
20 | West Virginia | East Carolina |
21 | Clemson | West Virginia |
22 | UCLA | Clemson |
23 | East Carolina | Marshall |
24 | Duke | Duke |
25 | Louisville | USC |
via CollegeFootballPlayoff.com; Bleacher Report
Top Games to Watch
No. 3 Auburn at No. 4 Ole Miss
Ole Miss might have suffered its first loss of the season Saturday at LSU, but you cannot blame the defense. The Rebels allowed just 10 points in Baton Rouge, continuing a trend of great play throughout the season.
The defensive side of the ball is not only a strength for Ole Miss; it is arguably the best unit in the nation. Alex Brown of Optimum Scouting broke down the squad’s talent level:
This #OleMiss defense has future #NFL‘ers at literally every spot. SAF Cody Prewitt, DT/DE Byron Bennett & CB Senquez Golson are top seniors
— Alex Brown (@OS_AlexBrown) October 25, 2014
ESPN’s Joe Schad provided some stats for how the elite defense matches up against Auburn:
Ole Miss leads the nation in scoring defense (10.5) and has allowed 8 TDs in 8 gms. Auburn has 32 pass/rush TDs.
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) October 30, 2014
As good as Auburn is with its read-option rushing attack, it will be difficult to move the football at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, and this will be another low-scoring battle.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace should be more comfortable at home, especially against a Tigers defense that ranks just 75th in the country against the pass. If he can find a way to get the ball to Laquon Treadwell in space, the Rebels will be able to get enough points to win.
Auburn has one of the more talented teams in the nation, but road games against Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama could end up dooming a run to the national championship.
This game will not be pretty, but Ole Miss will find a way to come out on top at home.
Prediction: Ole 17, Auburn 13
No. 7 TCU at No. 20 West Virginia
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
While that SEC battle is going to be all about defense, this Big 12 contest will look more like a track meet.
TCU has the No. 1 offense in the country, scoring 50.4 points per game. Even in the team’s only loss, the Horned Frogs totaled 58 points against Baylor. While West Virginia’s defense has improved lately, it will be difficult to slow down Trevone Boykin.
However, the Mountaineers have their own quick-strike offense with Clint Trickett throwing the ball to receiver Kevin White, one of three players in the nation with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2014.
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com is impressed with what he has seen from the senior this season:
Studying West Virginia WR Kevin White and I’ve already had about 5 wow moments in 2 games. Pretty special talent.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) October 22, 2014
Of course, Trickett deserves credit on his own, as he has not let any defense slow him down this year. He has thrown for over 300 yards against top defenses such as Alabama and Oklahoma, and he gives his team a chance to win any game.
Considering TCU has only played in two true road games this season and zero outside the state of Texas, the offense could have some problems in the intimidating environment of Morgantown. If Boykin is slowed down even a little bit, it could be all West Virginia needs to pull off an upset in a back-and-forth battle.
Prediction: West Virginia 41, TCU 38
Stanford at No. 5 Oregon
There are two different matchups between ranked Pac-12 teams, but this is the one people really want to watch. Oregon is in position to play its way into the College Football Playoff if it wins out, but Stanford has represented a thorn in the team’s side over the past few seasons.
Since Marcus Mariota became the starting quarterback in 2012, the Ducks have lost only four games. Two of them were against Stanford, with each seemingly knocking the squad out of the national title picture.
Despite this lack of success, head coach Mark Helfrich does not have any doubts about his quarterback, via Andrew Greif of The Oregonian:
Marcus Mariota doesn’t need to beat anybody to prove the greatness of him. I know that he as a competitor wants to beat everybody and it doesn’t matter if it’s Stanford or whoever he’s going to compete like heck to win as a competitor, as a teammate but again that’s kind of an external factor that doesn’t help him make a read better. If he prepares with a little chip on his shoulder great, and then just go out and play fast.
Still, it is not a coincidence the Cardinal have had success against Oregon. They consistently have one of the best defenses in the nation (No. 2 in scoring in 2014) thanks mostly to a defensive front that hits hard and tackles well.
ESPN’s David Lombardi notes how consistent the unit has been in recent years:
31 straight games for Stanford defense allowing fewer than 30 points. Longest streak in nation, 2nd longest is 14 games (!)
— David Lombardi (@LombardiESPN) October 25, 2014
As the Ducks deal with injuries and reshuffling along their own offensive line, Mariota could be under a lot of pressure throughout the game.
Playing at home will give Oregon a boost, especially with Kevin Hogan and the Stanford offense struggling to score on the road. The team is averaging only 14.7 points in three games away from home.
That should allow the Ducks to pull out a win, but it will be difficult to cover the spread.
Prediction: Oregon 24, Stanford 20
Away | Home | Pick ATS* |
Arkansas | No. 1 Mississippi State | MSU -10.5 |
No. 3 Auburn | No. 4 Ole Miss | MISS -2.5 |
Stanford | No. 5 Oregon | STAN +8 |
No. 7 TCU | No. 20 West Virginia | WVU +3.5 |
Oklahoma State | No. 9 Kansas State | KSU -11 |
No. 10 Notre Dame | Navy | NAVY +14 |
Florida | No. 11 Georgia | FLA +10.5 |
No. 12 Arizona | No. 22 UCLA | UCLA -7 |
Kansas | No. 13 Baylor | KAN +35.5 |
No. 17 Utah | No. 14 Arizona State | ASU -5 |
Purdue | No. 15 Nebraska | NEB -23.5 |
Illinois | No. 16 Ohio State | OSU -28.5 |
No. 18 Oklahoma | Iowa State | OKLA -16.5 |
No. 23 East Carolina | Temple | ECU -7.5 |
No. 24 Duke | Pittsburgh | DUKE +3.5 |
*Spread info via Odds Shark
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