Weekly Surprises: Week 9 Sleepers
Thursday, October 30, 2014
We’ve finally hit the part of the schedule where more than two teams are on their bye. Off this week are the Falcons, Lions, Bears, Packers, Titans, and Bills. There are plenty of lineup holes to be filled. As of late Wednesday night, the Vegas oddsmakers only have two non-Thursday games (DEN at NE and IND at NYG) currently saddled with an over-under of 50 points or greater. PHI at HOU sits at 49. Everybody knows the deal with Sleepers by now. It’s a mix of re-draft and daily here. In parentheses is Player X’s FanDuel price. For quarterbacks, anything below $8,000 is value. I’ve set the limit at about $6,500 for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $3 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 9’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $500,000. Starts Sunday, November 2nd at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
QB Michael Vick at Chiefs ($6900): We’re finally going to see Vick make starts under center for Gang Green after Geno Smith tossed three first-quarter interceptions against the Bills last Sunday. Smith has turned the ball over 12 times, and the Jets are 1-7. It was time for a change. Vick is no protector of the football himself, but he knows the offense like the back of his hand and can fill a box score. In three quarters of action, Vick managed to lead the Jets to 17 points on five series, tallying 152 pass yards and 69 more on the ground. The Chiefs have a talented defense, led by edge rushers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, but Vick’s floor is high every time he steps on the field. He’ll be fresh and is a decent bye-week fill-in option for Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan owners. I’m personally streaming Vick in place of Cutler in my big-money re-draft league.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Eagles ($6400): The over-under for this game sits at 49 with the Eagles as two-point favorites, so there’s more than likely going to be plenty of points put up in this one. I get the Texans offense goes through Arian Foster. But if Fitzpatrick can uncork 30-plus pass attempts in what should be a fast-paced game that could turn into a bit of a shootout. The Eagles are horrible against opposing quarterbacks, and outside cornerbacks Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher are particularly bad. If Fitzpatrick can throw for 250-plus yards and a couple scores with 20-30 rushing yards thanks to his underrated mobility, he’d pay off. I’ll take a couple bites out of the Fitzpatrick apple in tournament action on FanDuel.
RB Bobby Rainey at Browns ($6200): Doug Martin hurt his ankle last week and was in a walking boot Wednesday, missing practice. Couple that injury with Martin’s horrific play all season, and it may be time for the Bucs to turn back to Rainey. Rainey is “JAG” himself, but he’s shown that he can produce numbers in the right matchup, even if he does have ball-security issues. If Martin were to sit out, Rainey would take over lead-back duties with rookie Charles Sims likely coming off short-term I.R. and playing a limited role. Rainey has Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 elusive rating — breaking 28 tackles on 84 touches — behind only Jonathan Stewart. Martin is 41st among 48 running backs with five broken tackles on 67 touches. Martin is also a zero in the pass game. Rainey is tenth among running backs with 22 catches. The Browns are dreadful against the run and remain banged up on the defensive line. If looking for a solid RB2/FLEX option possibly hanging on the waiver wire, Rainey is my pick.
RB Carlos Hyde vs. Rams ($5800): This is purely based on me expecting the 49ers to blow the Rams out on Sunday. The Rams can’t stop the run, as they’re allowing a 4.7 YPC average on the ground and have given up a league-high ten runs of 20-plus yards. Look for this one to get out of hand early, with the San Francisco defense taking advantage of Austin Davis in his first game minus No. 1 receiver Brian Quick (shoulder), LT Jake Long (torn ACL), and possibly RG Rodger Saffold (shoulder) and C Scott Wells (elbow). No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson will protect Davis’ blind side for the first time, while turnstile Mike Person will man left guard. It’s a recipe for a Rams disaster. Frank Gore will get his work early before spending much of the second half in a ball cap. That’ll allow Hyde to rack up carries and burn clock after the break. Hyde averaged 10 touches per game from Weeks 4-6, and the 49ers are coming off their Week 8 bye. Hyde is fresh and likely to see a couple goal-line looks.
RB Jeremy Hill vs. Jaguars ($5200): Let me be clear. I don’t love this pick and would totally avoid it if Giovani Bernard (hip, collarbone) plays Sunday. But if Bernard, who didn’t practice Wednesday, can’t play, Hill will be a workhorse against Jacksonville. He’d be a candidate for 20-plus touches. The problem here is the Jaguars are playing stout defense since being gashed on the ground in September. The good news would be the Bengals are getting them in Cincinnati. Hill would be a borderline RB1 in the event Bernard sits out, and he’s dirt-cheap. Hill should be owned in most re-draft leagues as a top handcuff. Bernard has proven susceptible to weekly nicks and dings.
Don’t forget, for everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @NickMensio on Twitter.
WR Rueben Randle vs. Colts ($6400): This is a dream matchup for Randle. Even if Colts ace RCB Vontae Davis (knee) plays, he doesn’t shadow receivers, so Randle will still run routes against LCB Greg Toler. Toler is Pro Football Focus’ No. 103 cover corner out of 107 qualifiers and just allowed an 8-118-2 line to Steelers receivers last week. Special teamer Josh Gordy would fill in for Davis if he can’t play. In the absence of Victor Cruz, the Giants have talked about getting Randle more looks out of the slot. Manning the slot for the Colts: Darius Butler. Butler was just torched by Ben Roethlisberger, who completed a perfect 6-of-6 throws on Butler for 109 yards and one touchdown. I can’t seem to avoid using Randle across the board on FanDuel. He dominates targets in the Giants’ passing game, and the G-Men have had two weeks to prepare for Indy.
WR Andrew Hawkins vs. Bucs ($6400): The Bucs have been really bad against the pass, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Tampa’s two worst corners: RCB Johnthan Bancks and SCB Leonard Johnson. Who does Hawkins run most of his routes against? You guessed it. Right cornerbacks and slot cornerbacks. Hawkins has seen at least eight targets in 6-of-7 games and has 12 catches for 200 yards and one touchdown over the past two weeks. He doesn’t exactly qualify as a sleeper, but it’s another dream matchup for the Browns’ No. 1 receiver. He should see even more looks with Jordan Cameron (concussion) out.
WR Anquan Boldin vs. Rams ($6300): In three games against the Rams as a member of the 49ers the past season-and-a-half, Boldin has posted receiving lines of 5-90-1 on seven targets, 9-98-0 on 13 targets, and 7-94-1 on nine targets. The latter came in Week 6. Fresh off their bye, the 49ers have had two weeks to prep for a home game against the Rams, who just got shellacked by the Chiefs at Arrowhead. St. Louis is really banged up at corner, with LCB Trumaine Johnson (knee) yet to play this season and RCB Janoris Jenkins hobbled by a knee injury of his own. Boldin simply owns the Rams. He’ll run plenty of routes against SCB Lamarcus Joyner, S T.J. McDonald, and the linebackers. Boldin is a favorite of Colin Kaepernick’s in the red zone. I currently have seven DFS lineups for Week 9, and Boldin is in every single one of them.
WR Torrey Smith at Steelers ($6100): With Cortez Allen getting roasted on a weekly basis, the Steelers will start something called Antwon Blake at cornerback opposite William Gay. Smith didn’t catch a pass last week against the Bengals and missed snaps while being checked for a concussion. He reentered the game and isn’t on the Week 9 injury report. Gay and Blake will play sides, with Brice McCain likely to cover the slot. Torrey and Steve Smith Sr. will each run routes against both outside corners. Gay hasn’t been bad this season, but Blake (5-foot-9, 198) is an undersized, virtually unknown, third-year UDFA who has given up 4-80-1 on just 28 defensive snaps. Both Smith’s should feast. Before his Week 8 goose egg, Torrey had scored three touchdowns on 10 targets in the previous two games. He’s a solid rebound play and GPP target.
WR Jordan Matthews at Texans ($5900): On a day where the Eagles ran 94 offensive plays against the Cardinals in Week 8, Matthews saw a season-high 10 targets. Coach Chip Kelly is always going to push the tempo, and it’ll be no different in Houston on Sunday. The Texans have yielded the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. While CB Kareem Jackson has been solid for the most part, he struggles when in the slot. That’s where he plays in sub-packages, and that’s where Matthews runs all of his routes. Quarterbacks have a 137.7 passer rating while throwing at Jackson inside, and he’s allowed 18-261-2 on 24 targets. At 6’3/212, Matthews is a red-zone threat who’s due for a score.
TE Travis Kelce vs. Jets ($5400): My favorite tight end play of the week. Kelce remains a 50-percent-of-the-snaps player in the Chiefs’ offense, but that’ll be enough against the Jets. Gang Green has surrendered a league-high nine touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. YAC monster Kelce is due for an outburst with him not finding the end zone since scoring in three straight games from Weeks 3-5. Alex Smith is the king of the check-down, making Kelce his second read on plenty of pass plays. As a classic boom-or-bust player, I feel a “boom” coming for Rob Gronkowski-clone Kelce.
TE Clay Harbor at Bengals ($5200): A strict matchup play, Harbor gets to go against a Bengals defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Cincinnati will also be without MLB Rey Maualuga (hamstring) and WLB Vontaze Burfict (knee). An ideal streamer and GPP play, Harbor is seeing over five targets per game this season. Look for OC Jedd Fisch to simplify things for Blake Bortles on the road against a tough AFC North club. Harbor is a plus athlete with some post-catch moves and shakes.
We’ve finally hit the part of the schedule where more than two teams are on their bye. Off this week are the Falcons, Lions, Bears, Packers, Titans, and Bills. There are plenty of lineup holes to be filled. As of late Wednesday night, the Vegas oddsmakers only have two non-Thursday games (DEN at NE and IND at NYG) currently saddled with an over-under of 50 points or greater. PHI at HOU sits at 49. Everybody knows the deal with Sleepers by now. It’s a mix of re-draft and daily here. In parentheses is Player X’s FanDuel price. For quarterbacks, anything below $8,000 is value. I’ve set the limit at about $6,500 for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $3 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 9’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $500,000. Starts Sunday, November 2nd at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
QB Michael Vick at Chiefs ($6900): We’re finally going to see Vick make starts under center for Gang Green after Geno Smith tossed three first-quarter interceptions against the Bills last Sunday. Smith has turned the ball over 12 times, and the Jets are 1-7. It was time for a change. Vick is no protector of the football himself, but he knows the offense like the back of his hand and can fill a box score. In three quarters of action, Vick managed to lead the Jets to 17 points on five series, tallying 152 pass yards and 69 more on the ground. The Chiefs have a talented defense, led by edge rushers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, but Vick’s floor is high every time he steps on the field. He’ll be fresh and is a decent bye-week fill-in option for Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan owners. I’m personally streaming Vick in place of Cutler in my big-money re-draft league.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Eagles ($6400): The over-under for this game sits at 49 with the Eagles as two-point favorites, so there’s more than likely going to be plenty of points put up in this one. I get the Texans offense goes through Arian Foster. But if Fitzpatrick can uncork 30-plus pass attempts in what should be a fast-paced game that could turn into a bit of a shootout. The Eagles are horrible against opposing quarterbacks, and outside cornerbacks Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher are particularly bad. If Fitzpatrick can throw for 250-plus yards and a couple scores with 20-30 rushing yards thanks to his underrated mobility, he’d pay off. I’ll take a couple bites out of the Fitzpatrick apple in tournament action on FanDuel.
RB Bobby Rainey at Browns ($6200): Doug Martin hurt his ankle last week and was in a walking boot Wednesday, missing practice. Couple that injury with Martin’s horrific play all season, and it may be time for the Bucs to turn back to Rainey. Rainey is “JAG” himself, but he’s shown that he can produce numbers in the right matchup, even if he does have ball-security issues. If Martin were to sit out, Rainey would take over lead-back duties with rookie Charles Sims likely coming off short-term I.R. and playing a limited role. Rainey has Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 elusive rating — breaking 28 tackles on 84 touches — behind only Jonathan Stewart. Martin is 41st among 48 running backs with five broken tackles on 67 touches. Martin is also a zero in the pass game. Rainey is tenth among running backs with 22 catches. The Browns are dreadful against the run and remain banged up on the defensive line. If looking for a solid RB2/FLEX option possibly hanging on the waiver wire, Rainey is my pick.
RB Carlos Hyde vs. Rams ($5800): This is purely based on me expecting the 49ers to blow the Rams out on Sunday. The Rams can’t stop the run, as they’re allowing a 4.7 YPC average on the ground and have given up a league-high ten runs of 20-plus yards. Look for this one to get out of hand early, with the San Francisco defense taking advantage of Austin Davis in his first game minus No. 1 receiver Brian Quick (shoulder), LT Jake Long (torn ACL), and possibly RG Rodger Saffold (shoulder) and C Scott Wells (elbow). No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson will protect Davis’ blind side for the first time, while turnstile Mike Person will man left guard. It’s a recipe for a Rams disaster. Frank Gore will get his work early before spending much of the second half in a ball cap. That’ll allow Hyde to rack up carries and burn clock after the break. Hyde averaged 10 touches per game from Weeks 4-6, and the 49ers are coming off their Week 8 bye. Hyde is fresh and likely to see a couple goal-line looks.
RB Jeremy Hill vs. Jaguars ($5200): Let me be clear. I don’t love this pick and would totally avoid it if Giovani Bernard (hip, collarbone) plays Sunday. But if Bernard, who didn’t practice Wednesday, can’t play, Hill will be a workhorse against Jacksonville. He’d be a candidate for 20-plus touches. The problem here is the Jaguars are playing stout defense since being gashed on the ground in September. The good news would be the Bengals are getting them in Cincinnati. Hill would be a borderline RB1 in the event Bernard sits out, and he’s dirt-cheap. Hill should be owned in most re-draft leagues as a top handcuff. Bernard has proven susceptible to weekly nicks and dings.
Don’t forget, for everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @NickMensio on Twitter.
WR Rueben Randle vs. Colts ($6400): This is a dream matchup for Randle. Even if Colts ace RCB Vontae Davis (knee) plays, he doesn’t shadow receivers, so Randle will still run routes against LCB Greg Toler. Toler is Pro Football Focus’ No. 103 cover corner out of 107 qualifiers and just allowed an 8-118-2 line to Steelers receivers last week. Special teamer Josh Gordy would fill in for Davis if he can’t play. In the absence of Victor Cruz, the Giants have talked about getting Randle more looks out of the slot. Manning the slot for the Colts: Darius Butler. Butler was just torched by Ben Roethlisberger, who completed a perfect 6-of-6 throws on Butler for 109 yards and one touchdown. I can’t seem to avoid using Randle across the board on FanDuel. He dominates targets in the Giants’ passing game, and the G-Men have had two weeks to prepare for Indy.
WR Andrew Hawkins vs. Bucs ($6400): The Bucs have been really bad against the pass, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Tampa’s two worst corners: RCB Johnthan Bancks and SCB Leonard Johnson. Who does Hawkins run most of his routes against? You guessed it. Right cornerbacks and slot cornerbacks. Hawkins has seen at least eight targets in 6-of-7 games and has 12 catches for 200 yards and one touchdown over the past two weeks. He doesn’t exactly qualify as a sleeper, but it’s another dream matchup for the Browns’ No. 1 receiver. He should see even more looks with Jordan Cameron (concussion) out.
WR Anquan Boldin vs. Rams ($6300): In three games against the Rams as a member of the 49ers the past season-and-a-half, Boldin has posted receiving lines of 5-90-1 on seven targets, 9-98-0 on 13 targets, and 7-94-1 on nine targets. The latter came in Week 6. Fresh off their bye, the 49ers have had two weeks to prep for a home game against the Rams, who just got shellacked by the Chiefs at Arrowhead. St. Louis is really banged up at corner, with LCB Trumaine Johnson (knee) yet to play this season and RCB Janoris Jenkins hobbled by a knee injury of his own. Boldin simply owns the Rams. He’ll run plenty of routes against SCB Lamarcus Joyner, S T.J. McDonald, and the linebackers. Boldin is a favorite of Colin Kaepernick’s in the red zone. I currently have seven DFS lineups for Week 9, and Boldin is in every single one of them.
WR Torrey Smith at Steelers ($6100): With Cortez Allen getting roasted on a weekly basis, the Steelers will start something called Antwon Blake at cornerback opposite William Gay. Smith didn’t catch a pass last week against the Bengals and missed snaps while being checked for a concussion. He reentered the game and isn’t on the Week 9 injury report. Gay and Blake will play sides, with Brice McCain likely to cover the slot. Torrey and Steve Smith Sr. will each run routes against both outside corners. Gay hasn’t been bad this season, but Blake (5-foot-9, 198) is an undersized, virtually unknown, third-year UDFA who has given up 4-80-1 on just 28 defensive snaps. Both Smith’s should feast. Before his Week 8 goose egg, Torrey had scored three touchdowns on 10 targets in the previous two games. He’s a solid rebound play and GPP target.
WR Jordan Matthews at Texans ($5900): On a day where the Eagles ran 94 offensive plays against the Cardinals in Week 8, Matthews saw a season-high 10 targets. Coach Chip Kelly is always going to push the tempo, and it’ll be no different in Houston on Sunday. The Texans have yielded the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. While CB Kareem Jackson has been solid for the most part, he struggles when in the slot. That’s where he plays in sub-packages, and that’s where Matthews runs all of his routes. Quarterbacks have a 137.7 passer rating while throwing at Jackson inside, and he’s allowed 18-261-2 on 24 targets. At 6’3/212, Matthews is a red-zone threat who’s due for a score.
TE Travis Kelce vs. Jets ($5400): My favorite tight end play of the week. Kelce remains a 50-percent-of-the-snaps player in the Chiefs’ offense, but that’ll be enough against the Jets. Gang Green has surrendered a league-high nine touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. YAC monster Kelce is due for an outburst with him not finding the end zone since scoring in three straight games from Weeks 3-5. Alex Smith is the king of the check-down, making Kelce his second read on plenty of pass plays. As a classic boom-or-bust player, I feel a “boom” coming for Rob Gronkowski-clone Kelce.
TE Clay Harbor at Bengals ($5200): A strict matchup play, Harbor gets to go against a Bengals defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Cincinnati will also be without MLB Rey Maualuga (hamstring) and WLB Vontaze Burfict (knee). An ideal streamer and GPP play, Harbor is seeing over five targets per game this season. Look for OC Jedd Fisch to simplify things for Blake Bortles on the road against a tough AFC North club. Harbor is a plus athlete with some post-catch moves and shakes.
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