College Football Picks: Week 10 Predictions for Every Game – Bleacher Report As the calendar shifts to November, the 2014 college football season is starting to hit the stretch run. The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, serving as a motivator for the top schools to use as they fight to get into the playoffs, while for most teams the focus shifts toward becoming bowl-eligible and improving their resume to get into a better game. With that in mind, Week 10’s schedule will serve as the opening act of a six-week run to the end of the regular season. Division and conference titles will get clinched, bowl bids will get locked up and coaches fighting for their jobs will have a better idea of their fates. Also, #MACtion returns to the schedule, with the Mid-American Conference starting its annual slate of Tuesday and Wednesday games on Nov. 4-5. Those games are included in our Week 10 picks, making for a heavy slate of 58 contests between Thursday and next Wednesday. Take a look at our predictions for Week 10, then give us your thoughts in the comments section. Last week: 40-8 (.833) Season: 411-129 (.761) When: Thursday, Oct. 30; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Henry Miller’s touchdown run gave Louisville a 26-20 overtime home win over undefeated Florida State in September 2002. What to watch for All eyes will be on Florida State (7-0, 4-0 ACC) in this opening game of Week 10 as it faces what’s likely to be its toughest remaining opponent before the conference title game in December. The Seminoles have handled all comers so far, winning 23 straight, but the defending champs have looked vulnerable at numerous times this season. Aside from Jameis Winston, whose numbers are better than during his Heisman campaign in 2013, the rest of FSU’s offense and defense has performed worse than a year ago. The run game ranks 104th, and while leading rusher Karlos Williams has come on of late, he now faces off-field distractions with allegations of domestic battery as well as a possible involvement in an armed robbery during the offseason. FSU’s defense has also been much softer, allowing 374.4 yards per game this season after only giving up 281.4 per game during its title run. Louisville (6-2, 4-2) has fared well during its first season in the ACC, yet it’s done so with an approach far different than what was expected with the return of Bobby Petrino as coach. The Cardinals offense has struggled most of the season, while the defense is No. 1 overall at 245.8 yards allowed per game. Those numbers may be misleading, writes Bud Elliott of SB Nation’s Tomahawk Nation blog: “Louisville has held just about everyone under their season averages, some well under. But they’ve also not played any QB close to the likes of Jameis Winston, and the better QBs they’ve played were facing some rather interesting circumstances.” The Seminoles have scored at least 31 points in every game Winston has played in, so expecting them to get shut down is unrealistic. But the atmosphere of this game is perfect for a major upset, one that will shake up the College Football Playoff standings and knock FSU out of the picture. Prediction: Louisville 27, Florida State 24 When: Thursday, Oct. 30; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Georgia Southern beat Troy, 24-21, in November 1995, when both teams were at the FCS level. What to watch for Troy (1-7, 1-3 Sun Belt) will fail to go to a bowl game for the fourth straight year after losing 27-13 at South Alabama last week. The Trojans will try to play hard down the stretch for retiring coach Larry Blakeney, who announced earlier this month he was stepping down after 24 seasons. Georgia Southern (6-2, 5-0) leads FBS in rushing, averaging 400.4 yards per game, with 40 touchdowns on the ground. The Eagles are in their first season of FBS play, and as a transitional member, they would only get a bowl invite if there weren’t enough teams eligible for the 39 bowl games. Georgia Southern has thrived in the Sun Belt, winning by an average of 22.2 points per game. This could be its biggest blowout yet. Prediction: Georgia Southern 55, Troy 13 When: Friday, Oct. 31; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Tulane beat visiting Cincinnati, 35-17, in October 2002, when both teams were in Conference USA. What to watch for Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1 American) played the second half of last week’s home with over South Florida without quarterback Gunner Kiel, who has been plagued by a rib injury for several weeks. The Associated Press reported Tuesday he’s expected to play in this game, and the Bearcats will need his 2,049 passing yards and 20 touchdowns to be able to stay in the race for the conference title. Tulane (2-5, 1-2) has lost three of its last four and has topped 21 points only once in regulation this season. The Green Wave rank 107th nationally in total offense, and over the past four games, they’ve averaged only 11 points. Cincinnati’s defense is soft, which will make this a higher-scoring game for Tulane. But the Bearcats still win on the road. Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Tulane 23 When: Friday, Oct. 31; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: G.J. Kinne had two touchdown passes for Tulsa in a 48-7 win at Memphis in October 2010. What to watch for Tulsa (1-6, 1-2 American) is on a six-game losing streak since opening with a double-overtime home win over Tulane. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 40.7 points per game, which has made the solid pass-catching combo of quarterback Dane Evans and receiver Keevan Lucas almost a non-factor. Memphis (4-3, 2-1) is averaging more than 200 yards per game passing and rushing, with Paxton Lynch pacing the offense at quarterback. The Tigers defense remains a strength, allowing 19.3 points per game. Memphis keeps moving upward, while Tulsa continues on its downward spiral. Prediction: Memphis 44, Tulsa 14 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 11:30 a.m. ET Last meeting: Anthony LaCoste ran for 263 yards and three touchdowns in Air Force’s 42-28 home win over Army last November. What to watch for Air Force (5-2) ranks 12th in the country in rushing, averaging 273.4 yards per game, but it’s been the passing of Kale Pearson that has enabled the Falcons to more than double last year’s win total and be in the hunt for the Mountain West’s Mountain Division title. And having already beat Navy, Air Force has a chance at its first Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 2011. Army (2-5) is fifth nationally in rushing at 319.4 yards per game, but that hasn’t translated into much success because the Black Knights defense hasn’t done its job. Every opponent has scored at least 24 against them, and they rank 98th in total defense. Air Force lost at West Point two years ago, but it will grab this one and take the trophy back to Colorado Springs. Prediction: Air Force 31, Army 27 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: C.J. Fiedorowicz scored on an eight-yard touchdown pass from Jake Rudock in overtime of Iowa’s 17-10 home win over Northwestern last October. What to watch for Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big Ten) has dropped two straight since its upset of Wisconsin, unable to parlay the momentum of that into anything. The Wildcats offense hasn’t topped 29 points this season, and the run game is ranked 103rd at 127.6 yards per game. Iowa (5-2, 2-1) is coming off a 38-31 loss at Maryland before its bye, but the Hawkeyes still have all of the West Division’s better teams remaining on the schedule, so they remain in contention to make the conference title game. After mostly low-scoring games to start the year, the last two have been shootouts as their offense has started to become more effective. Iowa will use the bye as a launching point for a heated finish to the season, starting with a solid win here. Prediction: Iowa 34, Northwestern 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: Penn State beat Maryland, 70-7, in October 1993. The Nittany Lions are 35-1-1 all-time against the Terrapins, the only loss coming in 1961. What to watch for Maryland (5-3, 2-2 Big Ten) has allowed 52 points in each of its two conference losses, including last week at Wisconsin. The Terrapins defense has struggled most of the season, ranking 105th in total defense and 110th in run defense. A combined 10 interceptions thrown by three quarterbacks has also been a contributing factor to Maryland’s recent woes, while injuries continue to plague this program as backup QB Caleb Rowe is done for the year. Penn State (4-3, 1-3) played hard in a double-overtime home loss to Ohio State last week, but the result came the same way the previous two losses had: with horrible rushing and no pass protection for talented quarterback Christian Hackenberg. He was sacked five times by the Buckeyes and has been taken down 25 times this season after only getting sacked 21 times in 2013. Penn State has used a defense that ranks seventh nationally to remain in most of its games, but it will get a breakout performance from the offense to claim this one. Prediction: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: None What to watch for Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1 Big Ten) is third in the country in rushing at 338.4 yards per game, with that attack far more than Melvin Gordon’s big numbers. Gordon has run for 1,168 yards and 16 touchdowns, but Corey Clement and quarterback Tanner McEvoy have gotten their yards as well, and that run game has been there even in the losses. Rutgers (5-3, 1-3) gives up 5.09 yards per rush, and opponents have scored 19 times on the ground against the Scarlet Knights. The team had no shot last week at Nebraska and faces a similar dilemma defensively against Wisconsin. Playing at home should help, but much of what the Scarlet Knights do revolves around quarterback Gary Nova not making mistakes. Nova hurt his knee at Nebraska and is a question mark for this game. Without him, the Knights are in deep trouble. Even with him it will be a tough game, so count it as a loss either way. Prediction: Wisconsin 35, Rutgers 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: None What to watch for Rice (4-3, 2-1 Conference USA) is on a four-game win streak and is starting to play the way it did last season en route to the C-USA title. The Owls have scored at least 41 in four of their last five games, with quarterback Driphus Jackson throwing 10 of his 12 of his touchdown passes during that stretch. Florida International (3-5, 2-2) averages 35.3 points per game in its wins and 13.2 points in its losses. The Golden Panthers’ best offense has been defensive touchdowns, of which they have four, and a plus-10 turnover margin has helped minimize an offense that ranks 122nd nationally. Rice’s six giveaways are the fifth-fewest in the country, and as long as it holds on to the ball, it should win going away. Prediction: Rice 34, Florida International 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: Blake Bortles threw four touchdown passes in a 62-17 home win for UCF over Connecticut last October. What to watch for UCF (5-2, 3-0 American) has won five straight and remains the class of its conference by virtue of being 11-0 all-time in AAC games, despite being ranked behind East Carolina. The Knights defense has been rock solid all year, and now that quarterback Justin Holman is showing signs of coming around, this is looking like a team that will keep getting better as the season progresses. The same can’t be said for Connecticut (1-6, 0-4), which hasn’t beat an FBS team this season but did find itself tied with East Carolina on the road in the fourth quarter last week. The Huskies are fourth-worst in the country in total offense at 276.3 yards per game and haven’t scored more than 21 points in a game. Being at home won’t give UConn any edge, not with the way UCF is playing. Prediction: UCF 30, Connecticut 14 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: East Carolina beat Temple, 32-22, in October 1995. What to watch for East Carolina (6-1, 3-0 American) saw itself listed as the highest-ranked group-of-five team in the initial playoff rankings, meaning the Pirates would be in line for a major bowl bid if the season ended now. It doesn’t, though, so they must continue focusing on winning out and performing better than they have since conference play began. After looking impressive in non-league action, winning at Virginia Tech and crushing North Carolina at home, East Carolina has underachieved against three foes with a combined record of 4-18. “We don’t coach for rankings,” coach Ruffin McNeill told reporters. “What we coach is playing our best on every play and embracing our roles to make the team better. That’s what we can control.” Temple (4-3, 2-2) provides a much tougher challenge, but the Owls themselves have struggled of late, losing at Houston and UCF by a combined 41 points after a solid 4-1 start. They rank 111th in the country in total offense and had a season-low 182 yards at UCF last week. With East Carolina clearly seeing what’s at stake from here on out, look for it to come out much stronger than in the past month and win comfortably. Prediction: East Carolina 38, Temple 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: Tom Savage threw for 424 yards and six touchdowns in Pittsburgh’s 58-55 win at Duke last October. What to watch for Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) comes out of its bye in sole possession of first in the Coastal Division, leading Georgia Tech and four other teams by one game in the loss column only because it’s played fewer ACC contests. Its win at Tech could loom large for future tiebreakers, but so could its loss at Miami in what’s shaping up to be a very tight division race. The Blue Devils have gotten a boost of late from the use of backup quarterback Thomas Sirk as a change of pace, similar to how they used both Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette last season. Sirk’s been able to boost a run game that averages 218 yards per game but has no player gaining more than 69.3 yards per game individually. Pittsburgh (4-4, 2-2) got blown out at home last week by Georgia Tech, but it was far more its own fault than because of the opponent. The Panthers inexplicably fumbled seven times, losing six, including giving it away on each of their first five possessions. Pitt’s 11 lost fumbles are tied for third-worst in the country and has handicapped a relatively efficient offense thanks to James Conner’s 1,079 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Duke has a plus-eight turnover margin and will no doubt be keying on Pitt’s ball-handlers to force takeaways for this road victory. Prediction: Duke 27, Pittsburgh 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: Oklahoma ran for 405 yards in a 48-10 home win over Iowa State last October, as Bob Stoops tied Barry Switzer as the school’s winningest coach. Oklahoma has won 15 straight over the Cyclones. What to watch for Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) hasn’t played since its disappointing one-point home loss to Kansas State on Oct. 18, a game that saw Michael Hunnicutt miss two short field goals and have an extra point blocked. But the problems ran much deeper for the Sooners, who despite gaining 533 yards had several stalled drives in the red zone. The Sooners could get a big boost to its offense with the likely return of Keith Ford from a broken leg. The running back was leading the team in rushing before getting hurt against Tennessee in mid-September, and while freshman Samaje Perine has carried the load, the addition of another ball-carrier will help balance out the offense. Iowa State (2-5, 0-4) lost a shootout at Texas last time out, racking up 524 yards against a solid defense but yielding more than 500 itself. It’s been that kind of year for the Cyclones, who can’t seem to get everything to go their way in a Big 12 game. They have wins over quality Iowa and Toledo teams, but in the conference, they’ve lost their four games by a combined 45 points. The Cyclones will fight hard and lead in the second half, but Oklahoma will come out in the end. Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Iowa State 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; noon ET Last meeting: Jorvorskie Lane and Jerrod Johnson each ran for two touchdowns in Texas A&M’s 54-14 home win over Louisiana-Monroe in September 2007. What to watch for Louisiana-Monroe (3-4) is averaging only 93 rushing yards per game, which has contributed to an offense that scores only 17.6 per contest. The Warhawks have lost three in a row, last week blowing a 15-0 lead in a 22-18 home loss to Texas State. Texas A&M (5-3) gets a much-needed cupcake game after losing three straight to Top 10 teams Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama. The Aggies were shut out last time out against the Crimson Tide, but it’s been the defense that has been the biggest problem, allowing 47.3 points per game during the skid. A&M romps to get back some confidence before heading out to face another Top 10 foe in Auburn next week. Prediction: Texas A&M 53, Louisiana-Monroe 13 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 12:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Dallas Crawford scored on a three-yard touchdown run with 16 seconds left in Miami’s 27-23 win at North Carolina last October. What to watch for North Carolina (4-4, 2-2 ACC) is working from the same script as last season, when it started 1-5 to finish 7-6 with a hot second half. The Tar Heels have won two straight but are still very bad on defense, with the 27 points allowed at Virginia last week their best effort of the season. UNC allows 41.3 points and 512.8 yards per game, both worst in the ACC. Miami (5-3, 2-2) dominated at Virginia Tech last week and is right in the thick of the tight ACC Coastal Division race thanks to its head-to-head win over current leader Duke. The Hurricanes have seen running back Duke Johnson get better each game, and he’s now up to 1,036 yards this season. Miami receiver Phillip Dorsett is averaging 31.4 yards per catch on his 18 receptions this year, and he should feast on UNC’s defense along with Johnson en route to a romp. Prediction: Miami 45, North Carolina 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 12:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Andre Williams ran for 166 yards and two touchdowns in Boston College’s 34-27 home win over Virginia Tech last November. What to watch for Boston College (5-3, 2-2 ACC) is 11th in FBS in rushing at 277 yards per game, paced by quarterback Tyler Murphy and his team-high 843 rushing yards. Murphy has run for eight scores, while Jon Hilliman is up to nine TDs after scoring twice last week at Wake Forest. Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3) has lost two in a row and hit bottom last Thursday, falling 30-6 at home to Miami (Florida). The Hokies were 90 seconds from being shut out for the first time since 1995, and their offense has disappeared. Even more troubling is that Tech’s normally strong rush defense hasn’t recovered from the loss of tackle Luther Maddy and has allowed 243 yards per game over the last three. The way Miami ran over Tech last week, the numbers say Boston College will do the same. But look for the Hokies to rise up and play their best since winning at Ohio State in Week 2 to get back on track. Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 1 p.m. ET Last meeting: Zurlon Tipton ran for 216 yards and four touchdowns in Central Michigan’s 42-10 home win over Eastern Michigan last November. What to watch for Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2 Mid-American) has three road wins this season, including at Purdue and perennial MAC power Northern Illinois. The Chippewas have done it with defense, leading the conference in yards allowed at 338.2 yards per game, while senior running back Thomas Rawls has rushed for 1,011 yards and 10 touchdowns. Eastern Michigan (2-6, 1-3) has played better at home than on the road, winning twice and losing to Northern Illinois by 11. The Eagles only average 15.3 points and 286.3 yards per game, though dual-threat quarterback Reginald Bell Jr. has helped boost the offense of late. Central Michigan didn’t get to six wins until its finale last year and missed a bowl. This season, it will be in the hunt for a bid, becoming eligible here. Prediction: Central Michigan 31, Eastern Michigan 13 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 1 p.m. ET Last meeting: Keith Price threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns in Washington’s 59-7 home win over Colorado last November. What to watch for Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac-12) has been unable to mount any consistency on offense, managing just a field goal and a defensive touchdown in a home loss to Arizona State last week. Quarterback Cyler Miles was held out of that game as a precautionary with a concussion, though he’s expected back this game. Linebacker Shaq Thompson had to serve as the Huskies’ main running back last week because of injury, and that could be the case again here. Colorado (2-6, 0-5) keeps getting oh-so-close to getting that first conference win, losing in double overtime at home to UCLA last week for its second OT loss in Pac-12 play. The pass-catching duo of Sefo Liufau and Nelson Spruce is among the most productive in the country, but the Buffaloes don’t have any defense. Look for the Buffaloes to take this one, though, finally cashing in against a depleted opponent. Prediction: Colorado 30, Washington 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 2:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Alex Carder threw for 429 yards and three touchdowns in Western Michigan’s 24-21 win at Miami (Ohio) in November 2011. What to watch for Western Michigan (5-3, 3-1 Mid-American) is a missed extra point from being unbeaten in conference play and leading the West Division, but the Broncos are still vastly improved from a year ago when they were 1-11. Freshman running back Jarvion Franklin leads FBS with 19 rushing touchdowns, while Zach Terrell has thrown seven of his 14 TD passes to Corey Davis. Miami (2-7, 2-3) has won two of four since ending a 21-game losing streak, with Notre Dame transfer quarterback Andrew Hendrix leading the resurgence. Hendrix has thrown for 2,597 yards and 19 touchdowns, while adding 257 rushing yards and five TDs. Western Michigan reaches bowl eligibility for the first time since 2011, but the game will be close and high-scoring. Prediction: Western Michigan 40, Miami 31 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to watch for Western Kentucky (3-4, 1-3 Conference USA) has the No. 2 passing offense in FBS thanks to 2,871 yards and 24 touchdowns from Brandon Doughty. He’s attempted 331 passes, trying to keep the Hilltoppers’ attack ahead of a defense that gives up 41.1 points per game. Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0) has won three straight, playing with much more consistency than earlier this season when it won at defending Sun Belt champ Louisiana-Lafayette then lost at home to an FCS team. The Bulldogs have gotten 17 passing touchdowns from Cody Sokol and 10 rushing scores from Kenneth Dixon, who’s also caught four TD passes and who has scored 47 times in his three-year career. Tech controls its own destiny in the West Division and will defend its home field well in what will be a high-scoring game. Prediction: Louisiana Tech 41, Western Kentucky 34 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jerome Smith ran for 140 yards and a touchdown in Syracuse’s 24-10 win at North Carolina State last October. What to watch for North Carolina State (4-4, 0-4 ACC) has dropped four in a row since its hot start, its season turning on the inability to hold a 24-7 first-quarter lead on unbeaten Florida State at home a month ago. Over the 15 quarters since, the Wolfpack have been outscored 150-49, and they now play on the road for the third time in four games. Syracuse (3-5, 1-3) managed only two field goals at Clemson last week, its offense a season-long issue made worse by the loss of dual-threat quarterback Terrel Hunt to injury. The Orange are third-worst in the ACC in yards per game and have lost their last four home games. Make that five in a row, as NC State has more firepower and will triumph in this road tilt. Prediction: North Carolina State 27, Syracuse 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Josh Lambert kicked a 35-yard field goal in West Virginia’s 30-27 overtime win at TCU last November. What to watch for TCU (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) is coming off an absolute domination on offense in its 82-27 win over Texas Tech but now heads into the most critical two-game stretch of its season. That’s saying a lot seeing as the Horned Frogs already played Oklahoma and Baylor back-to-back in early October, but now that they see how close they sit to the top four in the playoff rankings, the future is now. Trevone Boykin is arguably the most improved player in the country, going from a guy without a true position late last season to throwing a school-record seven touchdown passes last week and sitting with 2,680 yards of total offense and 24 TDs this year. He has super-fast receivers and a good running back in B.J. Catalon to work with, as well as a defense that’s underrated but has numerous playmakers. West Virginia (6-2, 4-1) has played a far greater role in the playoff picture than could have been predicted before the season. Its 10-point loss to Alabama to start the year serves as Alabama’s best win right now, while its 41-27 victory over Baylor helped to shake up the Big 12. Clint Trickett is another candidate for most-improved, showing much more comfort in Dana Holgorsen’s offense in 2014 to the tune of 2,763 passing yards and 17 touchdowns while completing 68.3 percent of his attempts. Kevin White has 1,047 receiving yards and eight TDs, and the Mountaineers have quietly averaged more than 180 rushing yards per game. With an upcoming home game against Kansas State as well, West Virginia will be the team that determines the Big 12’s fate both internally and in the playoff picture. And like with Baylor, it will knock TCU off in impressive fashion. Prediction: West Virginia 37, TCU 31 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Zach Laskey ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns in Georgia Tech’s 35-25 win at Virginia last October. What to watch for Virginia (4-4, 2-2 ACC) suffered a bad home loss to North Carolina last week, its second straight defeat, causing it fall back into the pack in the Coastal Division. The Cavaliers have averaged 21.3 points per game over their last three, and the defense is starting to give up more than earlier in the season. Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) capitalized on six Pittsburgh turnovers (including five on the first five drives) to win by 28 on the road last week, ending a two-game skid. The Yellow Jackets remain one of the best rushing teams in the nation, leading the ACC at 326.1 yards per game, yet it’s been Justin Thomas’ 9.6 yards per pass attempt and 11 touchdowns that has made their offense far tougher to defend. Tech stumbled at home to Duke the last time it was in Atlanta, but it will get this one and stay near the top of the Coastal standings. Prediction: Georgia Tech 37, Virginia 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Taysom Hill had 342 yards of total offense and ran for two touchdowns in BYU’s 37-10 home win over Middle Tennessee last September. What to watch for BYU (4-4) has lost four straight since quarterback Taysom Hill was lost for the year with a broken leg. The Cougars offense is still generating points and moving the ball, though Christian Stewart is more mistake-prone with his passing, but the defense has become a sieve and has yielded 40.8 points per game during the losing streak. Middle Tennessee (5-3) is 4-0 at home this season and is one of a handful of teams in the country averaging more than 200 passing and rushing yards each. Quarterback Austin Grammer has thrown for 1,893 yards and 11 touchdowns, and the Blue Raiders have needed all of that since they allow 31.9 points per game. MTSU wants payback for getting whooped in Provo last year, and with BYU struggling, the Cougars are vulnerable to a fifth straight loss. Prediction: Middle Tennessee 41, BYU 31 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Ameer Abdullah ran for 126 yards and a touchdown in Nebraska’s 44-7 win at Purdue last October. What to watch for Purdue (3-5, 1-3 Big Ten) hasn’t been the pushover it was last year, winning at Illinois and putting up a decent fight in its other conference games. The Boilermakers offense is vastly improved, nearly doubling their scoring from 14.9 in 2013 to 28.3 this season. Nebraska (7-1, 3-1) is playing as well as many of the other one-loss teams in the country, as was evidenced by it ranking ahead of Ohio State in the CFP rankings. Ameer Abdullah will give a serious challenge to 2,000 rushing yards, sitting at 1,249 with 17 touchdowns, and at 4,226 career yards, he’s 555 from passing Mike Rozier for the Cornhuskers’ all-time rushing title. Purdue allows 176.8 rushing yards per game, something Abdullah is apt to reach by halftime. Prediction: Nebraska 45, Purdue 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Devin Gardner had a school-record 584 yards of total offense and accounted for five touchdowns in Michigan’s 63-47 home win over Indiana last October. What to watch for Indiana (3-4, 0-3 Big Ten) has one of the best all-purpose threats in the country in Tevin Coleman but not much else now that quarterback Nate Sudfeld is done for the year due to a separated shoulder. Coleman is averaging 170.3 rushing yards per game and is second in FBS in all-purpose yards, but he has no impact on a Hoosiers defense that gives up 34.9 points per game. In Big Ten play, that average jumps to 46.0. Michigan (3-5, 1-3) ranks 118th in the country in total offense at 320.8 yards per game, a figure heavily aided by games against Appalachian State and Miami (Ohio). Against power opponents, the Wolverines have gained 257.7 per game and punched in only seven offensive touchdowns. These are two teams that have very little chance of making a bowl game this year, given the way each has played. The X-factor here will be Michigan’s decent defense, which is 14th nationally in yards allowed. The Wolverines will slow down Coleman enough to get the win. Prediction: Michigan 27, Indiana 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Todd Gurley had 187 yards of total offense and two touchdowns in Georgia’s 23-20 win over Florida last November in Jacksonville. What to watch for Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC) has spent most of this season dealing with the speculation that coach Will Muschamp‘s job is on the line at nearly every turn, with each loss seemingly heating his seat up even more. A disastrous 42-13 home loss to Missouri—despite only yielding 119 yards—before a bye week has only led to even more talk that the fourth-year coach not only is on his way out but may not survive the season. As Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel writes, after previously shrugging off the rumors, Muschamp is starting to see the writing on the wall: “Even Muschamp himself knows this week’s edition of the Florida-Georgia game might morph into The World’s Largest Outdoor Farewell Party.” The Gators haven’t won the annual battle with Georgia since 2010, the year before Muschamp took over. And with an offense that ranks 99th nationally in yardage, he’ll be hard-pressed to end that streak this season. Georgia (6-1, 4-1) comes off the bye still riding the momentum of back-to-back impressive road wins at Missouri and Arkansas, and now it has an idea of when the team will become whole again. The NCAA announced Wednesday that suspended running back Todd Gurley will be eligible to return on Nov. 15, right in time for the Bulldogs’ matchup with No. 3 Auburn. The NCAA’s release stated Gurley’s suspension, which will be for four games, stems from his acceptance of “more than $3,000 in cash from multiple individuals for autographed memorabilia and other items over two years.” The Bulldogs haven’t missed Gurley so far, with freshman Nick Chubb carrying it 68 times for 345 yards in two games so far. Florida’s defense is tougher than what they’ve faced without Gurley previously, though, ranking 22nd nationally against the run. With Gurley, this would be an absolute blowout. Without, Georgia still wins but will be challenged by a Florida team desperate to save its coach’s job. Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to watch for Georgia State (1-7, 0-5 Sun Belt) has lost seven straight since opening with a win over FCS Abilene Christian, the Panthers’ lone victory in their two seasons at the FBS level. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle has thrown for 2,472 yards and 16 touchdowns, but he can’t do anything about a defense that allows 43.6 points per game. Appalachian State (2-5, 1-2) won by 39 at Troy two weeks ago, the first it’s won against an FBS team since moving up from FCS this season. The Mountaineers have averaged 57 points against two FCS teams and 24.4 per game when facing FBS teams. The least successful of the many Sun Belt teams that have recently made the jump to FBS, at least to this point, will play down to the wire before Appalachian wins its second straight. Prediction: Appalachian State 37, Georgia State 33 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 4 p.m. ET Last meeting: Texas State ran for 446 yards in a 66-28 home win over New Mexico State in December 2012, when both teams were in the Western Athletic Conference. What to watch for Texas State (4-3, 2-1 Sun Belt) has fared very well on the road this season, losing by a touchdown at Illinois and beating Tulsa and Louisiana-Monroe. That win last week at ULM had the Bobcats rally from a 15-0 deficit behind running back Robert Lowe and a strong running game. New Mexico State (2-6, 1-3) has as many wins as last season, but it hasn’t won since Sept. 6 at Georgia State. Since then the Aggies have lost six straight, giving up 41.5 points per game. The Aggies give up 329.4 rushing yards per game, worst in FBS, which doesn’t bode well when facing an opponent that runs for more than 230 yards per game. NMSU plays more competitively at home, but with Texas State making a relatively short trip from San Marcos to Las Cruces, that home-field advantage won’t matter. Prediction: Texas State 38, New Mexico State 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 4 p.m. ET Last meeting: Maty Mauk threw five touchdown passes in Kentucky’s 48-17 win at Missouri last November. What to watch for Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) has fallen back to Earth after its 5-1 start with back-to-back losses, though the 45-31 home setback to top-ranked Mississippi State was far better than the blowout at LSU the week before. The Wildcats have a star at quarterback in senior Patrick Towles, who last week had 466 yards of total offense and all four of Kentucky’s touchdowns, but they need more from their running backs to avoid a second-half free fall. Missouri (6-2, 3-1) has the second-worst offense in the conference, yet its defense has enabled it to be right in the hunt for the East Division title. Shane Ray’s 8.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss both lead the SEC, and the unit as a whole allows only 350 yards per game, helping to mask the passing issues that quarterback Maty Mauk has had the past month. Mauk has only 390 passing yards and two touchdowns in his last four games, but Kentucky is against whom he had his coming out last season. He’ll rebound, and the Tigers will win their third straight. Prediction: Missouri 31, Kentucky 14 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 4 p.m. ET Last meeting: John O’Korn threw for 263 yards and three touchdown passes in Houston’s 35-23 home win over South Florida last October. What to watch for Houston (4-3, 2-1 American) has caught fire since converted receiver Greg Ward Jr. took over as the Cougars quarterback. His running and accuracy has been paired with a defense that ranks 19th nationally in yards allowed and gives up 17.9 points per game. South Florida (3-5, 2-2) has victories over a pair of one-win AAC teams and an FCS opponent, all by a combined 16 points. In their five remaining games, the Bulls didn’t top 17 points, and for the season they rank 120th in total offense at 307.5 yards per game. Houston has won at Memphis, and this will be a much easier road trip. Prediction: Houston 27, South Florida 14 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 4 p.m. ET Last meeting: Bryce Petty threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns in Baylor’s 59-14 win at Kansas last October. What to watch for Kansas (2-5, 0-4 Big 12) has lost four straight, the last three since Charlie Weis was canned following a shutout loss at home to Texas. Things haven’t gotten much better for the Jayhawks since the coaching change, and they head to Waco riding a 28-game road losing streak to face a Baylor team still smarting from its first loss of the season. Baylor (6-1, 3-1) figures to bounce back huge from the loss at West Virginia, with a bye to help with that cause. The Bears remain atop the nation in yards per game at 579, but their penalty issues have made it so the last three games have all been impacted by those flags. Baylor is last in the country with 76 penalties for 104.6 yards per game. All the flags in the world aren’t going to keep Baylor from dominating Kansas. Prediction: Baylor 58, Kansas 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 4:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Connor Halliday threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns in Washington State’s 10-7 win at USC last September, the Cougars’ first win over the Trojans since 2002. What to watch for USC (5-3, 4-2 Pac-12) couldn’t hold a lead again, something that’s been the case a lot of late. If not for icing Arizona’s kicker in a 28-26 win in Tucson on Oct. 11, the Trojans would be losers in three of the last four, as the defense has worn down late while the normally solid offense sputters in the fourth quarter. Javorius Allen has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards, and Cody Kessler has only two interceptions to go with 20 touchdown passes. Yet in the fourth quarter this season, USC has been outscored 57-52 while having a decided advantage during the first three periods. Washington State (2-6, 1-4) has put up huge offensive numbers, thanks to the record-setting pace quarterback Connor Halliday is on, but without any defense, it’s basically a lost season. Halliday, who set the FBS single-game passing record earlier this year with 734 yards, has 3,833 yards and 32 touchdowns and is on pace to destroy the 12-game season passing record of 5,336. USC’s pass defense only allows 244 yards per game, but it will be challenged. Look for the Trojans to take a high-scoring affair. Prediction: USC 43, Washington State 36 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 5 p.m. ET Last meeting: Adam Kennedy threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns in Arkansas State’s 48-24 home win over Idaho last October. What to watch for Arkansas State (4-3, 2-1 Sun Belt) is coming off a 55-40 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette that served as a de facto Sun Belt title game between the league’s top two teams. Despite gaining 595 yards, the Red Wolves gave up 416 rushing yards and now must turn to ensure it finishes high enough in the conference to make a fourth straight bowl game. Idaho (1-6, 1-4) isn’t eligible for a bowl because of low academic progress rates, but the Vandals probably weren’t going to make one anyway because of an undermanned roster that’s allowed at least 34 points in every loss. They did win their last game against New Mexico State, 29-17, but overall have struggled this season. Idaho was run over on the road by this Arkansas State team last year, and a similar result is possible despite the game being played in the Kibbie Dome. Prediction: Arkansas State 36, Idaho 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 5 p.m. ET Last meeting: South Alabama used three first-half turnovers to pace a 30-8 home upset of Sun Belt champion Louisiana-Lafayette last December. What to watch for South Alabama (5-2, 4-1 Sun Belt) has won four straight to move within a game of being bowl-eligible for the second straight year. Unlike last season, the Jaguars are no longer transitioning into FBS and have a better shot to get an invitation if they finish high enough in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, 3-0) ran for more than 400 yards in a 55-40 win over Arkansas State last week, with Elijah McGuire rushing for 265 yards and four touchdowns and Alonzo Harris also scoring four times on the ground. The defending Sun Belt champs have averaged 41 points per game during their three-game win streak. Last year’s result was an anomaly, with ULL already locked into its bowl game and missing quarterback Terrance Broadway. Healthy and at home, the Ragin’ Cajuns roll. Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 41, South Alabama 23 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 5:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Caleb Herring threw four touchdown passes, and Tim Cornett rushed for three scores in UNLV’s 56-42 win at New Mexico last September. What to watch for New Mexico (2-5, 0-3 Mountain West) is a surprising 2-1 on the road, with its loss a four-point setback at improved Air Force. The Lobos’ option run game ranks sixth in the country at 304.4 yards per game, but when it struggles, there’s no chance they can win because of a defense that allows 32.4 points. UNLV (2-6, 1-3) has started to pick it up offensively in its last two games, averaging 25 in the last two after managing just 16.8 during a 1-5 start. The Runnin’ Rebels would need to win their remaining five games (they play 13 because of a game at Hawaii) in order to be bowl-eligible for a second straight year, which has never happened before. UNLV gets this one to keep those faint bowl hopes alive. Prediction: UNLV 33, New Mexico 23 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: Nick Marshall ran for 140 yards and two touchdowns in Auburn’s 30-22 home win over Ole Miss last October. What to watch for Now that the first College Football Playoff rankings are out, the big intrigue from here on out is how much those rankings change from week to week. They’re guaranteed to have some major movement thanks to this pairing of teams that would be in the semifinals if played this weekend. Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC) is the highest-ranked one-loss team in the country, getting credit both for its win at fellow one-loss Kansas State and that its defeat came on the road to No. 1 Mississippi State. The Tigers aren’t as explosive or flashy on offense as they were in reaching the BCS title game last season, but they haven’t needed to be thanks to a vastly improved defense. Quarterback Nick Marshall remains the key to Auburn’s team, though, and so far he hasn’t put up the passing numbers that were expected. The Tigers have only thrown 173 times in seven games, which ranks 117th nationally, but that also means they’re less likely to test an Ole Miss defense that has 17 interceptions and brought three of them back for touchdowns. Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1) has been massively impressive on defense, as its “Landsharks” unit ranks fourth nationally by allowing 4.35 yards per play. But as we saw last week in the loss at LSU, the Rebels can be run on if persistent enough, and playing from behind isn’t their strength because of an offense that lacks the ability to score and gain yards in bunches. Bo Wallace has thrown 18 touchdown passes with seven interceptions, but his pick late against LSU was an example of how things can go wrong when the senior tries to do too much. Still, he told reporters the Rebels need to be more aggressive from here on out to avoid putting themselves behind the eight ball, via Hugh Kellenberger of The Clarion-Ledger. “We have to get back to throwing the ball on first and second downs and making plays like we did earlier in the season,” Wallace said. Despite losing last week, Ole Miss sits in the playoffs as of now because the committee valued its win over Alabama. It can’t afford another loss right away, but unless it can force early mistakes by Auburn (which contributed to the Tigers’ loss at Mississippi State), this one will get away from the Rebels and they’ll fall out of playoff contention. Prediction: Auburn 24, Ole Miss 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: David Fales’ 62-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Winston with 5:37 left gave San Jose State a 34-27 win at Colorado State last October. What to watch for Colorado State (7-1, 3-1 Mountain West) wasn’t able to crack the first CFP rankings despite a six-game win streak and wins over two power-conference teams in Colorado and Boston College. Quarterback Garrett Grayson is having a whale of a senior year, with 2,456 yards and 21 touchdowns, and receiver Rashard Higgins is becoming one of the most unguardable players in the country with four straight games of at least 170 yards. San Jose State (3-4, 2-1) lost at Navy in a nonconference game last week, ending a two-game win streak that included an overtime victory at Wyoming. The Spartans have gotten 296.3 passing yards per game from quarterback Joe Gray since he took over the starting job four games ago, and he’s looking to be the guy to run this team for the remainder of the season. Colorado State has momentum and dominant offensive players, but this will be close. Prediction: Colorado State 34, San Jose State 27 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jaquez Johnson threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns in Florida Atlantic’s 37-23 win at UAB last October. What to watch for UAB (4-4, 2-2 Conference USA) has lost two straight, including last week’s blowout at Arkansas, but the Blazers are still a vastly improved team from a year ago thanks to the system new coach Bill Clark has put into place. UAB gains more than 200 yards apiece through the air and on the ground, and the 34 points it had at Mississippi State is the most any team has scored against the nation’s No. 1-ranked team. Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) led at halftime at unbeaten Marshall last week before fading, dropping its record to 0-5 on the road this season. The Owls have looked much better playing at the newly named Schnellenberger Field, averaging 45.3 points per game in three wins. This is a critical game for each team’s hopes of becoming bowl-eligible, with FAU coming out on top late. Prediction: Florida Atlantic 41, UAB 37 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to watch for Old Dominion (3-5) has dropped four in a row after opening Conference USA with a win at defending champ Rice. The Monarchs have given up 51.3 points per game during that skid, which has made it so senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke’s passing (2,286 yards, 21 touchdowns) can’t lead the way. Vanderbilt (2-6) has a three-point win over Massachusetts and a one-point victory over FCS Charleston Southern to go with mostly blowouts. Derek Mason’s first season has been a disaster, and even the super-easy nonconference schedule has been a challenge for a team that ranks third-worst in the country in total offense at 266 yards per game. A win over an SEC team, even one as bad as Vandy, would be huge for Old Dominion. A loss would be disastrous for the Commodores, but they’ll find a way to get it done. Prediction: Vanderbilt 37, Old Dominion 30 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7:15 p.m. ET Last meeting: Damian Williams’ 25-yard touchdown run in overtime gave Mississippi State a 24-17 win at Arkansas last November. What to watch for Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC) easily beat UAB last week but now returns to conference play with the unenviable task of trying to end its 16-game conference losing streak against the nation’s top-ranked team on the road. The Razorbacks came close in a pair of their previous SEC games, losing in overtime to Texas A&M and by one to Alabama, but were blown out by Georgia last time out. The run game is what will do it for Arkansas, if it happens, as that unit ranks 16th in FBS at 258.9 yards per game, but it’ll be going against a defense that allows only 118 yards per game on the ground. Mississippi State (7-0, 4-0) got the job done at Kentucky last week, its first game as the No. 1 team, and now with its spot atop the first College Football Playoff standings revealed, it’s a matter of staying up there. The next two weeks are more or less breathers for the Bulldogs, who host an FCS team next Saturday, before a final stretch that includes trips to Alabama and Ole Miss. Look for Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson to work their magic again for MSU, with plenty of hard running pacing a relatively easy victory. Prediction: Mississippi State 41, Arkansas 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Michael Palardy kicked a 19-yard field goal as time expired to give Tennessee a 23-21 home upset of South Carolina last October. What to watch for Tennessee (3-5, 0-4 SEC) is 0-5 against power-conference opponents this season, though it’s shown signs of promise in losses to Georgia and in the second half last week against Alabama. The Volunteers are very young, though, and still a year away from being truly competitive, as their offense is averaging less than 15 points per game against the better competition. South Carolina (4-4, 2-4) fought hard last week at Auburn, matching the Tigers score for score, but didn’t have enough to pull out the win at the end. Dylan Thompson is doing everything he can to move the Gamecocks offense, second only to Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill in passing yards (2,241) and touchdowns (20) in the SEC. The Gamecocks had one of their best efforts at Auburn and will parlay that into a blowout win against a Tennessee team that’s facing a crisis of confidence. Prediction: South Carolina 38, Tennessee 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Stanford jumped out to a 26-0 lead and held on to beat visiting Oregon 26-20 last November. What to watch for Stanford (5-3, 3-2 Pac-12) has had the answer for Oregon’s attack more than any other team over the last few years, taking three of five, including the last two. But while the last two results were built off the same punishing defense the Cardinal sport this season, what’s sorely lacking is any sort of offense to keep the Ducks off the field. The Cardinal scored 38 points last week, their most since the season opener against UC Davis, yet still had red-zone troubles. Stanford has failed to score on 12 of 34 trips inside opponents’ 20-yard line this season, something it cannot do against Oregon or any team that’s capable of putting up points at will. This year’s Oregon (7-1, 4-1) team seems more explosive than ever, with only the loss to Arizona resulting in fewer than 30 points. That game is starting to look like an anomaly greatly affected by several missing offensive linemen, because since that line began getting players back the Ducks have averaged 48.7 points. Marcus Mariota remains in the thick of the Heisman race, and despite Stanford being down this year, it remains a high-profile game for his campaign. Last season the Cardinal held him to minus-16 rushing yards, but look for him to be more mobile than in recent games while continuing to tap into his deep running back corps and improving crop of receivers. This will be a relatively drama-free win for Oregon after a close first half. Prediction: Oregon 33, Stanford 16 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Case McCoy accounted for three touchdowns in Texas’ 41-16 home win over Texas Tech last November. What to watch for Texas (3-5, 2-3 Big 12) was shut out for the first time in a decade on Oct. 25, losing 23-0 at Kansas State in the worst effort yet by that struggling offense. The Longhorns are second-worst in the conference in yardage at 348.3 yards per game, offsetting a solid defense that’s 35th nationally. TCU embarrassed Texas Tech (3-5, 1-4) last week to the tune of 82 points and 785 yards, and the Red Raiders now sit 122nd nationally in total defense. They have also turned the ball over at least once in 20 straight games and this season have a minus-12 turnover margin. The loser of this game is all but eliminated from bowl consideration, based on their remaining schedules. Expect both to fight like this is the game of the year, with Texas taking huge steps forward behind its defense. Prediction: Texas 33, Texas Tech 26 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: J.W. Walsh threw a six-yard touchdown pass to Charlie Moore late in the fourth quarter to give Oklahoma State a 33-29 home win over Kansas State last October. What to watch for Oklahoma State (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) has fallen back into the pack after a 5-1 start, losing the last two with only 19 combined points to its name. The Cowboys offense had been averaging more than 37 points per game before that, but the bottom has fallen out on that production as the schedule has stiffened, as this will be the third straight ranked team they face. Kansas State (6-1, 4-0) sits not far behind TCU in the CFP rankings, and with a visit to TCU looming next week, this is the Wildcats’ last tuneup for a rigorous stretch run in which three of their last four are on the road against ranked teams. K-State has fared well on the road to this point, winning at Iowa State and Oklahoma, but only by a combined five points. Jake Waters’ leadership at quarterback has been critical to those victories, while the defense has been making big plays when needed. Coach Bill Snyder has been around too long to let his team look past OK State toward next week, so don’t expect the Wildcats to struggle. Prediction: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Carlos Hyde ran for 246 yards and four touchdowns in Ohio State’s 60-35 win at Illinois last October. What to watch for Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big Ten) got its first home win in the conference under coach Tim Beckman and first since 2011, taking advantage of multiple Minnesota miscues to pull the upset last Saturday. With that out of the way, the Fighting Illini can return to being a sacrificial lamb that gives up 34.4 points per game and has had to weather injuries at quarterback. Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) battled through a tough one at Penn State last week, winning in double overtime when J.T. Barrett put the team on his shoulders and scored both OT touchdowns on the ground. It was Barrett’s first bad passing game in more than a month, but he was also aided by one of the Buckeyes’ best defensive efforts this season. With OSU’s offense likely to bounce back easy against Illinois’ weak defense, this game’s biggest intrigue will be how the Buckeyes fare slowing down the Illini. Prediction: Ohio State 51, Illinois 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: UTEP held on for a 34-33 win at Southern Mississippi in November 2012 after Southern Mississippi failed on a two-point conversion attempt with less than three minutes left. What to watch for Southern Mississippi (3-5, 1-3 Conference USA) has won its three games by a combined 17 points, though last time out the Golden Eagles fell by 11 at home to Louisiana Tech. Still struggling to run the ball, they have gotten solid play from quarterback Nick Mullens most of the season. UTEP (4-3, 2-1) shut out UTSA on the road last week, its first shutout victory since 2005. The Miners have a shot at being bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010. If that happens, it will be because of the running of Aaron Jones (848 yards, eight touchdowns). UTEP runs to another win. Prediction: UTEP 31, Southern Mississippi 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Tarean Folston scored on a one-yard run with 3:48 left to give Notre Dame a 38-34 home win over Navy last November. What to watch for Notre Dame (6-1) now sees where it sits in the eyes of the playoff selection committee, getting ranked several spots lower than in the media or coaches’ polls despite only one loss (by four points, on the road) to the defending national champions. With that in mind, the Fighting Irish must be as impressive as possible in their remaining games to have a chance to jump into the final four by December. “While the initial reaction for most Notre Dame fans will be panic, there is still a lot of football to be played,” wrote Keith Arnold of NBC Sports, noting that Notre Dame’s schedule still features resume-building games at Arizona State and USC and home against Louisville. First up is another difficult test, but not impossible, as long as it can contain a potent option run game and keep quarterback Everett Golson from giving the ball away. Golson has 11 turnovers in his last four games, taking some of the shine off his 2,235 yards of total offense and 23 touchdowns. Navy (4-4) ranks second in FBS in rushing, at 352.3 yards per game, and has managed that tally despite quarterback and leading rusher Keenan Reynolds missing all or parts of several games because of injury. He returned last week and ran for 251 yards and three touchdowns against San Jose State, and he has scored 11 times on the ground. Notre Dame’s run defense is No. 12 in the country, and it held Florida State to only 50 yards on the ground last time out. Navy will be able to run the ball, but keeping the big plays to a minimum will be a key to the Irish getting this hard-fought win. Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Navy 23 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 10:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Sean Mannion threw for 481 yards and four touchdowns in Oregon State’s 49-17 win at California last October. What to watch for California (4-4, 2-4 Pac-12) has quadrupled its win total from last year, one of the most improved power-conference teams in the country. With a nearly unstoppable offense that’s slowly becoming more balanced, the Golden Bears have been in nearly every game. But their defense remains a major issue, contributing to a three-game losing streak. Oregon State (4-3, 1-3) has lost three of four, with its offense disappearing from its already sluggish numbers during a 3-0 start. Beavers quarterback Sean Mannion is poised to become the Pac-12’s all-time passing leader, needing 194 yards to pass former USC passer Matt Barkley, but in losses at USC and Stanford in the past month he’s failed to tally that much. Cal’s pass defense is the worst in the league, though, allowing 383.5 yards per game with 31 touchdowns yielded, so he’ll have no trouble getting that mark and should have his biggest game of the season. Prediction: Oregon State 44, California 35 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 10:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: UCLA linebacker Myles Jack ran for 120 yards and a touchdown in UCLA’s 31-26 win at Arizona last November. What to watch for Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) had its first stress-free game since its season opener, winning by 22 points at Washington State after jumping to a 31-0 lead. The Wildcats’ electric offense was at peak performance, with Anu Solomon now up to 2,430 yards and 20 touchdowns against only four interceptions, though the run game has fallen back a bit because of injuries to two of the top three rushers. Defensive struggles have kept most games close, as Arizona is 99th in the country in total defense, and the 308.1 passing yards allowed per game is sixth-worst in the FBS. UCLA (6-2, 3-2) has massively underachieved this season, if you base things on preseason projections and expectations. Besides the home losses to Utah and Oregon, the Bruins have been in tight games nearly every other time out, with five of their wins in doubt on the final possession. Brett Hundley has had a good year, as has running back Paul Perkins, but a shoddy offensive line has led to 25 sacks. UCLA’s defense has also struggled more than anyone could have expected, giving up 35.8 points per game over the last four outings. Arizona has never won on the road against a ranked UCLA team, according to Daniel Berk of the Arizona Daily Star. If there’s a Wildcats team to do it, it’s this one, but all of those close calls will come back to bite them. Prediction: UCLA 38, Arizona 30 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 10:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Quinn Kaehler’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Eric Judge in overtime gave San Diego State a 51-44 win over Nevada last October. What to watch for San Diego State (4-3, 3-1 Mountain West) has won two in a row but is getting by with as little offense as possible. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed most of two games because of injury, and for the season he’s thrown just three touchdown passes after tossing 19 a year ago. Nevada (5-3, 2-2) has had each of its games decided by 11 points or less, including back-to-back road wins at BYU (by seven) and Hawaii (by eight). The Wolf Pack have been led by quarterback Cody Fajardo’s 2,399 yards of total offense and 21 touchdowns. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat for the West Division title, and that will be Nevada. Prediction: Nevada 30, San Diego State 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 10:45 p.m. ET Last meeting: Derek Carr threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns in Fresno State’s 48-10 win at Wyoming last November. What to watch for Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 Mountain West) has lost four straight, the last three in league play to fall out of the Mountain Division race. The Cowboys defense has allowed 41.5 points per game during the skid, and that’s forced coach Craig Bohl to stray from his ball-control offense without much success. Fresno State (3-5, 2-2) is coming off back-to-back road losses to fall back in the pack in the West Division. The defending Mountain West champs have gotten strong running of late from Marteze Waller, but the Bulldogs defense remains an issue that keeps stalling progress. Fresno can still contend for the division title but can’t afford a home loss to a struggling team. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Wyoming 25 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 11 p.m. ET Last meeting: Taylor Kelly threw a 14-yard touchdown pass to Richard Smith with 2:37 left to give Arizona State a 20-19 win at Utah last November. What to watch for Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) is in the thick of the South Division hunt by virtue of its wins over UCLA and USC, the last coming in the final seconds at home last Saturday. Devontae Booker has been a surprise star for the Utes out of the backfield, with 844 yards and eight touchdowns, while gamer quarterback Travis Wilson throws himself all over the field for the good of the team. The Utes defense has started to get some attention, thanks to the play of Nate Orchard, who is second nationally in sacks (11) and the reason his team has an FBS-leading 35 sacks. That defense will keep getting tested, as the Utes’ remaining schedule includes this trip to Tempe as well as games against Oregon and Arizona and a trip to Stanford, but so far it’s been able to finish most games. “We’ve won three close games in a row now right down to the end,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham told Dirk Facer of the Deseret News. Utah suffered a major blow Wednesday when the school announced leading receiver Dres Anderson was done for the year with a knee injury. Arizona State (6-1, 4-1) has become a dominant defensive team the past two weeks, each resulting in only 10 points allowed in wins over Stanford and Washington. Taylor Kelly returned to action at quarterback after missing three games with a foot injury, and he threw the game-winning touchdown pass at Washington right before getting knocked out because of a blow to the head. Sun Devils coach Todd Graham said Kelly did not suffer a concussion, according to Tyler Lockman of Fox Sports Arizona and is expected to start again Saturday night. ASU’s offense has a level of explosiveness it hasn’t needed the last two games but look for some big plays to give the Devils an early lead before they let the defense take over. Prediction: Arizona State 29, Utah 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 1; 11 p.m. ET Last meeting: Darell Garretson threw for 370 yards and three touchdowns in Utah State’s 47-10 win over Hawaii last November. What to watch for Utah State (5-3, 2-1 Mountain West) is down to its No. 3 quarterback with both Chuckie Keeton and Darell Garretson having suffered injuries. Garretson may return this year after having wrist surgery, but for now the Aggies offense is in the hands of Craig Harrison, who had three touchdown passes in a 34-20 home win over UNLV last week. Hawaii (2-6, 1-2) keeps playing close games but doesn’t have many results to show for it. All but one of the Warriors’ losses were by 10 or fewer points, including last week’s 26-18 home setback to Nevada. A much-improved defense has kept them in games, but there’s no production to support that effort. Hawaii will pull this one off, catching Utah State during a vulnerable time. Prediction: Hawaii 27, Utah State 23 When: Tuesday, Nov. 4; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Travis Greene ran for 142 yards and a touchdown in Bowling Green’s 31-14 home win over Akron last September. What to watch for Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 Mid-American) has had an up-and-down year under new coach Dino Babers, adapting to an up-tempo offense while struggling to play much defense and dealing with injuries. The Falcons lead the East Division by a game over Akron and would move closer to clinching another division title with a road win. Akron (4-4, 2-2) is coming off back-to-back road losses, stunting the momentum of a 4-2 start that had the Zips looking like they were going to be bowl-eligible for the first time since 2005. That can still happen, but they need to learn how to hold on to leads. Both schools have wins over power-conference teams—Bowling Green beat Indiana; Akron won at Pittsburgh—but the real prize is the division title. Akron is 3-1 at home and will take this one. Prediction: Akron 27, Bowling Green 24 When: Tuesday, Nov. 4; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Austin Dantin threw for 229 yards and a touchdown in Toledo’s 34-21 home win over Kent State in October 2010. What to watch for Toledo (5-3, 4-0 Mid-American) is the only unbeaten team in conference play, but only one of those games (an overtime win at Western Michigan) was on the road. The Rockets welcomed back running back Kareem Hunt last week, and he ran for 198 yards and a touchdown in a 42-35 win over Massachusetts. Hunt has gained at least 101 yards in all five games he’s played but missed three because of an ankle injury. Kent State (1-7, 0-4) is the only winless team in the MAC, its lone victory coming against Army in non-league play. The Golden Flashes are averaging only 14.1 points per game and just 12 in MAC play. Toledo should win easily, assuming Hunt can stay healthy. Prediction: Toledo 34, Kent State 20 When: Wednesday, Nov. 5; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Branden Oliver ran for 249 yards and two touchdowns in Buffalo’s 30-3 home win over Ohio last November. What to watch for Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 Mid-American) has lost three straight, losing 20-14 at home to Central Michigan last time out in its first game since firing head coach Jeff Quinn. The Bulls are getting decent offense from quarterback Joe Licata and running back Anthone Taylor, but their defense has been less-than-desirable. Ohio (4-5, 2-3) has played in bowl games in each of the past five years, but it needs to win at least two more games to keep that streak alive. The Bobcats offense has struggled for most of the year, and in MAC play they’re scoring only 16.8 points per game. Look for Ohio’s attack to have its best night in weeks thanks to Buffalo’s porous defense. Prediction: Ohio 34, Buffalo 21 When: Wednesday, Nov. 5; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jordan Lynch had 468 yards of total offense and accounted for four touchdowns in Northern Illinois’ 48-27 home win over Ball State last November. What to watch for Northern Illinois (6-2, 3-1 Mid-American) leads the conference in rushing at 269.4 yards per game, with three players averaging more than 50 yards per game. Drew Hare is the Huskies’ leading rusher, a dual-threat quarterback who has gotten the bulk of the work in the passing game as well, but NIU has used three different passers. Ball State (3-5, 2-2) has won two in a row since losing five straight, last week rallying from a 21-6 deficit to win 35-21 over Akron. The Cardinals’ fortunes have turned since sophomore Jack Milas took over as quarterback three games ago, as they’ve averaged 35 points per game in his starts. Northern Illinois remains the class of the MAC and will win a close battle. Prediction: Northern Illinois 31, Ball State 27 All statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
Ole Miss nearly won at Auburn last year. Who will win this season’s Top 10 showdown in Oxford?
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