Nik’s Picks: College Football Week 10 Betting Guide – LostLettermen.com
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Hello sports fans, and welcome back to Nik’s Picks for Week 10 (holy crap it’s already Week 10!) We limped to a 5-5 record last week, putting us at 27-22-1 on the season. We started out on a tear until Alabama, Ohio State and Ole Miss decided to lie down in the second half of their games. Last week was one of the hardest weeks to pick and I expect an upswing this week. Don’t fade me yet!
TCU put up 82 points against Texas Tech. 82! I can’t even score that much on Galaga without losing at least a ship or two. I’m not going to say that Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is getting hot in Lubbock but if he ends up on “The Bachelor” next season instead of coaching football, don’t say I didn’t warn you. (And yes, I am aware he has already signed an extension.)
Penn State ran out of gas late against Ohio State. It’s a man’s world and that man’s name is Joey Bosa. He will make you bleed your own blood. This game was a perfect example of the rooting strategy “I’ve already lost my bet so I’m just going to pull for the upset over the hateable Urban Meyer.”
Ole Miss finally pulled an Ole Miss and lost to LSU in Death Valley after a late interception by Bo Wallace. Wallace walked off the field after the play with time still remaining. Apparently he wanted to catch Jim Carrey’s opening monologue on “Saturday Night Live.” That young Tigers team is starting to shape up… at least at home.
Steve Spurrier and his Gamecocks team gave Auburn all it could handle. Going for it on fourth down and kicking onside is apparently the best way to beat Auburn. It’s also a good strategy when playing football video games.
I’m convinced no one stays up to watch Oregon except for the players’ parents and girlfriends. I bet you didn’t even realize their former stud running back, Byron Marshall, is now a receiver? The move has made room for true freshman, Royce Freeman, to grab the spotlight. Do yourself a favor and tune in this week as they avenge two straight losses to Stanford with a healthy Marcus Mariota.
West Virginia knows how to beat you better than you know how to beat yourself. Sure, Dana Holgorsen looks a lot like “Big Ern McCracken” (Bill Murray) from Kingpin, but I’ll be damned if he can’t call a game. Oh and Trevone Boykin and TCU come to Morgantown this week (twiddles thumbs grinning). Get the fireworks ready, just don’t ask TCU to bring its own.
Texas was a bad spot away from a backdoor cover against Kansas State. If you don’t like Bill Snyder, we can’t be friends. I bet he makes a good turkey sandwich too. K-State’s only loss is to Auburn and things should start to get pretty interesting for the Wildcats over the next few weeks.
Miami stomped Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg. Al Golden’s team is finally starting to click or Tech is just way too banged up. Either way, we’ll see if the ‘Canes are for real when the play Florida State in two weeks. That game is in South Florida, which means the crowd will be 75 percent ‘Noles fans. Nothing like a good home-field advantage… for the away team.
Week 10 “If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em Then Double Cross ‘Em at the Right Moment” Picks
No. 2 Florida State (-8.5) vs. Louisville
This week’s Thursday night game features two teams fresh off of bye weeks. It should have given FSU a chance to get healthy after a slugfest vs. Notre Dame. The last time these two played I was a freshman at FSU and the Cardinals upset the ‘Noles at home on a Thursday night, causing me to black out drinking Natty Light and wake up with a Gumby’s Pokey Stick hanging out of my mouth on a stranger’s floral patterned sofa.
This is the biggest game of the year for the Cardinals and Papa John and that home crowd gets pretty rowdy. Look for a heavy passing attack from Jameis Winston because Louisville’s run D is top five in the country. FSU is 1-7 against the spread this year, but they’ve won 23 straight games. FSU wins by seven on the arm of Jameis but take the points.
Pick: Louisville (+8.5)
Maryland vs. Penn State (-2.5)
Maryland got dump-trucked by Wisconsin last week and Penn State came from behind and lost in double OT to Ohio State. The Terps’ Big Ten welcoming party has been up and down this year, but they have been able to cover half the time.
We know Penn State is thin and after the battle they had last week, you’ve got to assume they’re a little banged up. The Nittany Lions have a solid defense and Christian Hackenberg is Mr. Comeback, but take the points in this one.
Pick: Maryland (+2.5)
No. 10 TCU (-4) vs. No. 20 West Virginia
TCU is 7-0 against the spread, it just hung 82 points on Texas Tech and Trevone Boykin is as consistent as your cable bill. West Virginia won last year in Fort Worth, but TCU beat the Mountaineers in Morgantown in ’12. I really like this West Virginia team, but I’m not ready to fade the Horned Frogs just yet. They are the real deal. Lay the points and watch Boykin and Clint Trickett put up video-game numbers.
Pick: TCU (-4)
Florida vs. No. 9 Georgia (-10)
Georgia looks unstoppable right now and Florida looks, well, very stoppable. This is a rivalry game being played on a neutral field in Jacksonville and these teams hate each other. It’s always a dog fight no matter what the records are and there will be a lot of big fellas dancing and celebrating after big plays.
You never know what can happen in a rivalry game but, I am 100-percent sure that the Gators will not be chomping very often after kickoff. Georgia wins so big they have to send the totals to NASA, UGA takes several naps during the game, “Sad Gator Fan” faces will litter message boards and #FireWillMuschamp will trend on Twitter.
Pick: Georgia (-10)
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 7 Ole Miss (-3)
Auburn is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings against Ole Miss. Both of these teams underperformed last week and should be refocused heading into this intra-divisional rivalry game. Ole Miss is 7-1 against the spread this year while Auburn has been as inconsistent as an Uber fare (3-4 ATS). If there was a reality show about Hugh Freeze and Bo Wallace airing this week, I’d be locked in. I bet you could cut the tension with a unsharpened knife after that loss to LSU. I’m not ready to count out the Rebels yet, but a field goal is a lot of points to give Gus Malzahn’s Tigers.
Pick: Auburn (+3)
Arkansas vs. No. 1 Miss State (-14)
Arkansas still hasn’t won a conference game since Bret Bielema took over and this week they’ll battle Heisman hopeful Dak Prescott and Josh “Bowling Ball” Robinson in Cowbell Country. Both teams have been able to cover this year but are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Everyone thought Arkansas was going to upset Georgia a couple of weeks ago but the joke was on them.
The Hogs will bully the Bulldogs in Starkville on Saturday in a bruising, Battle of the Five Armies, medieval-style showdown. Heavy is the head that wears the No. 1 crown and State only won by seven last year. Take the points in a close one.
Pick: Arkansas (+14)
Stanford vs. No. 5 Oregon (-12.5)
Stanford has had Oregon’s number the last few years and don’t think they don’t know it. After losing to Arizona at home, the Ducks have been on a tear, covering three straight. The Cardinal could really burst the Ducks’ playoff bubble if they win this one, but this is not the same Stanford team we’ve seen the past few years.
We’re looking at the No. 4 offense in Oregon vs. the No. 2 defense in Stanford, but it will come down to Stanford’s offense vs. the Oregon defense. That’s a lot of points to lay against a team that you know won’t lie down late. Oregon wins outright but take the points.
Pick: Stanford (+12.5)
No. 6 Notre Dame (-13.5) vs. Navy
The Fighting Irish are coming off a bye after losing to FSU and Navy has been struggling against subpar competition. The Midshipmen nearly won this game last year in South Bend but these teams have gone in different directions since then. Brian Kelly is still mad about the pass interference on his favorite pick play and will take it out on whoever is next, which happens to be Navy.
If you can get this game at the current number (-13.5), jump all over it because Notre Dame will win by the cumulative amount of leprechaun tears cried (in pounds) after losing two weeks ago (50).
Pick: Notre Dame (-13.5)
No. 14 Arizona vs. No. 25 UCLA (-4.5)
UCLA is 1-7 ATS this year but both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games head to head. UCLA has been tough to watch and outside of the Arizona State game, they haven’t really played to what we thought was their potential. Everyone is sleeping on Arizona, including the voters, but Rich Rodriguez has this team in contention to win the Pac-12 South.
This is a home game for the Bruins but you just can’t count on them to show up. Arizona upsets UCLA at home and the Bruins faithful begin preparing for basketball season.
Pick: Arizona (+4.5)
No. 18 Utah vs. No. 15 Arizona State (-2.5)
Both of these teams are major sleepers in the polls, but should be on everyone’s radar. We know Utah plays well at home but how will they fare down in the desert? ASU backup quarterback Mike Bercovici is this year’s Major Applewhite and if Taylor Kelly starts slow again, don’t be surprised if the Sun Devil fans start chanting for the switch. This will be a close one but I’m going with the home team by a field goal in Tempe.
Pick: Arizona State (-2.5)
Recap
- Louisville (+8.5) over Florida State
- Maryland (+2.5) over Penn State
- TCU (-4) over West Virginia
- Georgia (-10) over Florida
- Auburn (+3) over Ole Miss
- Arkansas (+14) over Mississippi State
- Stanford (+12.5) over Oregon
- Notre Dame (-13.5) over Navy
- Arizona (+4.5) over UCLA
- Arizona State (-2.5) over Utah
Week 9 Record: 5-5
Season Record: 27-22-1
Agree? Disagree? Tweet me at @NikolasHolmes. All lines via OddsShark.com (10/27/14)*.
*Note: We moved over to Odds Shark for odds. They feature offshore lines, which is what most of the readers of this blog usually bet.
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