If you’ve been reading this blog on a regular basis, you’ll know I have several “golden rules.” I’ve been known to break them, and when I do, it usually bites me in the Derryair.
That being said, it seems last week I forgot the most important one of all that I’ve never even mentioned: Don’t put your season in the hands of Tony Romo!
Squeak through the knockout pool, hanging by a limb, more than four-fifths of the other contestants gone, $25,000 on the line, and I take Dallas in a division game in prime time. To quote Dierks Bentley, “What Was I Thinking?!?” Especially, because I knew it was going to be close.
And so we move on. But before we do, there’s another rule that’s just as important as not betting on Tony Romo: Don’t let the previous week’s performance fool you! As you go along with the picks, that will sort of be the theme for the week.
While overall, we had a good week both straight up (10-5) and against the spread (9-6), it’s very frustrating with the Cowboys straight-up loss on Monday night. Let’s pick ourselves up and raise the bar one more time. Lots of “sure things” this week. Uh-oh.
(Weekly, overall picks results for Jim Derry and readers listed at bottom. CONGRATS to MICHAEL STACK for being the Week 8 winner and to STEVEN RAWLINS, the overall leader among readers – ANOTHER CHANGE AT THE TOP!)
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WEEK 9 PICKS (home team in bold):
16 points: NO PICK due to byes. Record: 2-1.
15 points: NO PICK due to byes.
Last week: Dallas over Washington (L). Record: 4-2. ATS, Redskins +9.5 (W).
14 points: NO PICK due to byes.
Last week: Kansas City over St. Louis (W). Record: 5-2. ATS, Chiefs -6.5 (W).
THE “SURE THINGS”
13 points: SEATTLE over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
While there’s still something off with the Seahawks, they fought through last week in a tough setting at Carolina. By no means is this the same world championship caliber team at the moment, and the internal strife is enough to make one a bit scared. Certainly, they are the play of the week in a knockout pool, but even against the lowly Raiders, that spread is utterly absurd. Against the spread: Oakland plus-16.5.
Last week: Miami over Jacksonville (W). Record: 5-3. ATS, Dolphins -5.5 (W)
12 points: CINCINNATI over JACKSONVILLE, Sunday at noon
One win in a squeaker does not mean the Bengals are “back,” but Blake Bortles took a clear step backward last week in his progression with the Jaguars. This fact remains: Cincinnati has yet to lose at home this season in four games, and has outscored its opponents 121-78. In fact, they haven’t lost at home since December 2012. I don’t normally lay double digits, but will here. Against the spread: Cincinnati minus-11.5.
Last week: Cleveland over Oakland (W). Record: 8-0. ATS, Raiders +7.5 (L)
FAIRLY SAFE
11 points: KANSAS CITY over NY JETS, Sunday at noon
Why does this game scare me? Probably because I am the opposite of the casual NFL observer. I normally put little stock in “last week,” although obviously in this case the Jets poor performance goes well beyond the stinker against Buffalo. Something just tells me they’re going to play well, and a very important stat to note: The Jets own the fifth-best defense in the league against the run. To me that means a close game. I like the Chiefs to find a way to win because of Andy Reid and Alex Smith vs. Rex Ryan and Michael Vick, but I don’t think they come close to covering a double-digit spread. Against the spread: NY Jets plus-10.5.
Last week: Indianapolis over Pittsburgh (L). Record: 4-4. ATS, Colts -2.5 (L)
10 points: SAN FRANCISCO over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Speaking of “last week,” the Rams suddenly stink again after allowing Kansas City to roll past them. It’s like I said, they expended all their energy in defeating Seattle and had nothing left. Meanwhile, San Francisco took the week off and will be well-rested and a bit healthier ready to start their second half in a friendly environment. The Niners should win in a low-scoring game, but a re-focused Rams Coach Jeff Fisher rarely gets blown out and will keep it close. Against the spread: St. Louis plus-10.5.
Last week: Seattle over Carolina (W). Record: 6-2. ATS, Seahawks -4.5 (L)
9 points: CLEVELAND over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon
This one should be fun to watch. NOT. While it might be a great week (maybe the only week) to own Brian Hoyer against the NFL’s 30th-ranked pass defense, there’s nothing fun about watching Tampa Bay. Although the Browns gave up the Jaguars only win of the season two weeks ago, they had it easy at home last week against the winless Raiders and should do the same this week against the lowly Bucs. This spread is a gift if it remains under a touchdown. Against the spread: Cleveland minus-6.5.
Last week: Detroit over Atlanta (W). Record: 5-3. ATS, Falcons +3.5 (W)
OUT ON A LIMB
8 points: CAROLINA over NEW ORLEANS, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
The Saints are back! The Saints are back! Drew Brees is Drew Brees again! Hip hip hooray! … Seriously? So the boys in black and gold won another one in prime time under the roof of the Superdome. Well, everyone knew they could do that. Nothing from last week’s performance changes the fact the Saints haven’t won on the road in more than 11 months, and in fact, Brees has thrown at least one interception in six consecutive road games. Lastly, the New Orleans takeaway margin in its seven-game road losing streak? 4-15. Until they can prove otherwise, keep stealing from your friends in Vegas who keep making the Saints road favorites. Against the spread: Carolina plus-1.5.
Last week: Denver over San Diego (W). Record: 5-3. ATS, Chargers +7.5 (L)
7 points: INDIANAPOLIS over NY GIANTS, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
What was that last week? Even though the Colts found themselves in a deep, dark hole, they nearly crawled out of it. The Giants are a team in disarray right now, and it’s hard to believe a week off is going to change much. While it’s a bit scary in this spot to pick against the G-men, who are 3-0 at home this season, Andrew Luck is licking his chops (and his wounds) to go against the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Big night for Luck and the Colts, who win by 10 or more. Against the spread: Indianapolis minus-3.5.
Last week: New England over Chicago (W). Record: 7-1. ATS, Patriots -6.5 (W)
YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN
6 points: MINNESOTA over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon
Well, everyone knew Colt McCoy could win in the state of Texas. Ha. Seriously, whenever a mediocre team goes out against a division rival and plays its best game, you can bet they’re going to struggle like the dickens the following week. I keep saying the Vikings are a team on the rise, and I expect a few big plays from young Jerick McKinnon. Against the spread: Minnesota minus-1.5.
Last week: Philadelphia over Arizona (L). Record: 5-3. ATS, Eagles +2.5 (L)
5 points: SAN DIEGO over MIAMI, Sunday at noon
It’s always a bit scary to pick a team that has to travel cross-country after playing a division foe. In this case, the Chargers will have had an extra couple of days to rest by playing last Thursday night. The Dolphins still haven’t proven they can play consistently enough to be counted on, and the only good team they have defeated thus far is New England in Week 1. Against the spread: San Diego plus-1.5.
Last week: Houston over Tennessee (W). Record: 6-2. ATS, Texans -1.5 (W)
4 points: BALTIMORE over PITTSBURGH, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
If it appears as if I’m not giving much credit to the Steelers, there’s a reason for that. Anomalies happen throughout any given NFL season, and last week’s offensive explosion against the Colts was just that. This is far from a high-flying offensive team, and it would be a surprise to see a Super Bowl contending team in the Ravens lose two in a row – even against a pair of tough teams on the road. Against the spread: Baltimore even.
Last week: Cincinnati over Baltimore (W). Record: 4-4. ATS, Bengals even (W)
3 points: PHILADELPHIA over HOUSTON, Sunday at noon
While I don’t think the Eagles are as good as many think they are, every week I watch Houston, I have less and less faith in them. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the answer at quarterback, and you can bet the Eagles will stack the box against Arian Foster. He’ll still get his 100 yards and one or two touchdowns, but Philly will win going away in a high-scoring game. Against the spread: Philadelphia minus-1.5.
Last week: Minnesota over Tampa Bay (W). Record: 7-1. ATS, Vikings +1.5 (W)
2 points: DALLAS over ARIZONA, Sunday at noon
Sigh. As previously stated, the Cowboys are not my favorite team right now, However, whatever feelings this down-on-his-luck prognosticator might have has nothing to do with the fact the Star Heads are still a very good football team. The Cardinals’ 6-1 record is impressive, but their only two road wins have come against the Giants and Raiders. Obviously, the line will continue to fluctuate until the status of Tony Romo is determined, but I expect Dallas to come back strong, no matter whether it’s Romo or Brandon Weeden behind center. Against the spread: Dallas minus-3.5.
Last week: NY Jets over Buffalo (L). Record: 5-3. ATS, Jets -2.5 (L)
1 point: DENVER over NEW ENGLAND, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
While the Patriots are beginning to flex their championship-caliber muscles, Peyton Manning just keeps doing his thing. And when he has 10 days to prepare for his nemesis, one can bet he’s going to be ready. Both of these quarterbacks will be first-ballot Hall of Famers, but right now, the one in orange appears to be nearly unstoppable. Against the spread: Denver minus-3.5.
Last week: New Orleans over Green Bay (W). Record: 5-3. ATS, Saints -1.5 (W)
* Spreads are gathered from oddsshark.com on Tuesday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 11-4. Season: 83-38 (.686).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 9-6. Season: 48-41 (.539). (Didn’t start ATS picks until Week 3.)
POINT TOTALS
Week 8: 86/120 or possible points. Weekly rank: 33 out of 72. Overall: 673/979. Overall rank: 10 of 157.
Week 8 READERS leader: Michael Stack, 113/120.
Overall READERS leader: Steven Rawlins, 708/979.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 8: 11-4 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 7: 10-5 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 6: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 5: 13-2 straight up, 7-8 ATS
Week 4: 10-3 straight up, 10-3 ATS
Week 3: 10-6 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 2: 11-5 straight up, no picks ATS
Week 1: 10-6 straight up, no picks ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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