Picks for biggest Week 9 games – ESPN
Score predictions for Ole Miss-LSU and other key matchups
Originally Published: October 23, 2014
By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider
Steele: Week 9 picks | Harris: Best bets | CFB PickCenter | ESPN Chalk
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. My overall record stands at 61-19 SU and 41-38-1 ATS. After the past three weeks featured several matchups between ranked teams, this week’s slate is not as formidable but could feature a couple of trap games for many of the current College Football Playoff contenders.
No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels (minus-3.5) at No. 24 LSU Tigers
Saturday at 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Tigers are 9-3 in the past 12 games in this series, but the teams have split their past six meetings. Last season, Ole Miss pulled off an upset of No. 6 LSU and there was nothing fluky about it as the Rebels had a 525-388 yardage edge. In terms of ATS, the Rebels have covered 10 of the past 13 meetings between the teams, and the visitor has covered 12 of the past 15.
Flipping forward to this fall, LSU is playing for a ninth straight week and is coming off a 41-3 win over Kentucky, becoming bowl-eligible for a school-record 15th straight season. It was by far the Tigers’ most complete game of the season, as they had a 303-71 rushing yards edge. However, they still field a one-dimensional offense: They have failed to top 150 yards passing in each of their past three games and are completing just 51.4 percent of their passes this season.
Ole Miss is off to its best start since 1962. Last week the Rebels held Tennessee to zero rushing yards, the first time that has happened to an SEC team since 2011 (Florida had minus-15 yards against Georgia). Their defense is allowing just 11 points per game, and they are holding their opponents to 155 yards per game below their season average (No. 3 on the country). While the offense has failed to top 400 yards in any of the past three games, the Bulldogs have been conservative with a 62-to-38 run-pass percentage mix the past two weeks after averaging a 52-48 run-pass mix the first five.
The Tigers could be a popular upset pick this week among many analysts, but remember that they did trail Mississippi State 34-10 at home earlier this season and lost to Auburn by 34. On the other side, Ole Miss is 6-0-1 ATS, and this number is reasonably cheap.
ATS pick:
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