Happy Hour: Are the best 8 drivers in the old Chase format still alive in 2014?
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The Chase field has officially been halved. Are any of the final eight drivers a surprise? Sure, before the Chase it would have been surprising to see both Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson out of the Chase at this point before the season began, but when you compare the old Chase points format to the new elimination format, look at the standings similarities. Here’s what the old points format would look like through six races.
1. Joey Logano, 2,257
2. Kevin Harvick, 2,240
3. Brad Keselowski, 2,225
4. Jeff Gordon, 2,210
5. Ryan Newman, 2,208
6. Kyle Busch, 2,197
7. Matt Kenseth, 2,196
8. Carl Edwards, 2,190
9. Denny Hamlin, 2,181
10. Jimmie Johnson, 2,174
11. Kasey Kahne, 2,169
12. AJ Allmendinger, 2,163
13. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2,149
14. Greg Biffle, 2,147
15. Kurt Busch, 2,146
16. Aric Almirola, 2,101
Seven of the top eight drivers are still alive in the current format. The only exception is Kyle Busch, who was unceremoniously booted after crashing at Talladega. The driver outside the top eight who is in the 2014 final eight is Denny Hamlin, and as you can see, he’s only nine points back of the top eight in the old format.
So no, the formality of eliminations isn’t producing any upsets. That’s likely because of the importance of three-race consistency within the rounds. One bad finish – considered a mulligan in the 10-race format – can ruin a round.
How much would Joey Logano be in charge under the old points format? In the previous 10 years of the Chase, the championship-winning driver has been in first with four races to go seven times. In the three years the champion wasn’t in first at this point, he wasn’t behind by much. In 2011, Tony Stewart was fourth and 19 points back. In 2007, Jimmie Johnson was second and 53 points back. In 2006, Johnson was third and 41 points back. When you consider that Johnson’s deficits happened in the previous not-one-point-per-position format and divide his deficits by about four each, they’re smaller than Stewart’s.
But as we know, these are simply fun things to talk about. With the current format, the top eight drivers are all deadlocked at 4,000 points. While much has been made about the one-race title decider at Homestead, it’s important to note that we’re now at a point where Logano would commanding lead based on past results as a Kevin Harvick comeback would be the second-largest in Chase history.
Instead, we’re still guessing at who the four Homestead finalists will be. But it’s no coincidence that the four favorites to be alive at Homestead would also be 1-4 in the old format.
It’s a light mailbag this week, so let’s get to it.
Can you take solace in the fact that Junior would be out of Chase contention no matter what by looking at the standings above?
Are the eliminations are truly testing the theory of different meanings for fans to see their driver be unofficially out of a title race vs. officially out of one? If there were no eliminations, Junior would still have the yellow bumper and windshield decal, but he’d be racing for a points finish in the top 10 anyway as he’s more than two full races out of contention. The same goes for Johnson too. He’s not making up an 83-point deficit if he’s still in the Chase.
And if you can’t, I understand. The points reset can rub a lot of salt into the wound. Had either Johnson or Junior won at Talladega, he would be considered a major contender even if he’d be an outlier based off the early returns on comparing formats.
I’m glad that this question fits seamlessly into the theme of the week. I’m not sure we can make a judgement, though it’s hard to wonder if fans are doing so when looking at the TV ratings. An elimination race at Talladega should be a draw. Instead, it was down 600,000 viewers from last year.
Currently, we know that the best drivers throughout the Chase are being rewarded appropriately. Will that continue? It would be reasonable at this point to assume that it will throughout the third round. However, the third round cuts the biggest percentage of drivers. There’s less margin to weather a bad or even simply mediocre finish.
To answer the first question, it’s too early to tell. And I don’t say that as a cop out. For the second question, after talking to Craig, the guy with the antlers, I’m going with the jean vest. First, because it was custom. That took some forethought into the design and the sacrifice of a good, plain and usable jean vest. Second, probably because he wears that to other places besides the race track. I neglected to ask, but my guess is that there aren’t any non-Royals public appearances planned for the antlers. They have a specific purpose. The jean vest can be worn to Golden Corral.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
