Part two of the hitting projections review looks at the shortstops and outfielders. I have the top 10 shortstops and top 30 outfielders below, with some others of varying degrees of interest. Barring something unexpected, this will be the last Strike Zone until late January. 500 or so pitcher writeups, followed by another complete set of projections, should keep me pretty busy until then.

Shortstops

1. Hanley Ramirez – Dodgers

Projection: .314/.378/.548, 29 HR, 94 R, 92 RBI, 14 SB in 560 AB

2014 stats: .283/.369/.448, 13 HR, 64 R, 71 RBI, 14 SB in 449 AB

11 homers and 12 steals in the first half, but just two of each as he was increasingly banged up in the second. Even with Ramirez’s production well down from 2013, he still had a 132 OPS+. Only Troy Tulowitzki was better (170 in 91 games) among shortstops. A distant third on the list was Jhonny Peralta at 116.
 
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies

Projection: .304/.378/.530, 26 HR, 85 R, 92 RBI, 5 SB in 504 AB

2014 stats: .340/.432/.603, 21 HR, 71 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 315 AB

It’s going to be hard to justify a top 10 pick on Tulo next year. He was baseball’s best player for three months this year, but he’s played in 122, 143, 47, 126 and 91 games the last five years.

3. Elvis Andrus – Rangers

Projection: .287/.353/.385, 7 HR, 90 R, 62 RBI, 32 SB in 592 AB

2014 stats: .263/.314/.333, 2 HR, 72 R, 41 RBI, 27 SB in 619 AB

In his sixth full season, Andrus finished with the worst average of his career. His run total was tied with his worst, and his homer and steal totals were his second worsts. His OBP was 25 points off his career average. He did, however, lead the AL in times caught stealing. Andrus is just 26, but since his defense already seems to be in decline, he’s a worse player now than when he entered the league at age 20. Worse, worse, worse.

4. Jose Reyes – Blue Jays

Projection: .289/.345/.430, 12 HR, 86 R, 57 RBI, 26 SB in 533 AB

2014 stats: .287/.328/.398, 9 HR, 94 R, 51 RBI, 30 SB in 610 AB

5. Ian Desmond – Nationals

Projection: .264/.312/.436, 21 HR, 89 R, 73 RBI, 20 SB in 603 AB

2014 stats: .255/.313/.430, 24 HR, 73 R, 91 RBI, 24 SB in 593 AB

I expected Desmond to hit second, but Matt Williams went with him in the fifth spot instead (which was certainly the better place for him all along). That’s why the run and RBI totals are flipped.

6. Jean Segura – Brewers

Projection: .282/.335/.380, 8 HR, 82 R, 47 RBI, 37 SB in 610 AB

2014 stats: .246/.289/.326, 5 HR, 61 R, 31 RBI, 20 SB in 513 AB

7. Brad Miller – Mariners

Projection: .269/.343/.447, 20 HR, 86 R, 73 RBI, 11 SB in 577 AB

2014 stats: .221/.288/.365, 10 HR, 47 R, 36 RBI, 4 SB in 367 AB

This one was definitely a bust. I still think Miller can be a top-10 shortstop next year, with the caveat that it will be tough to rank him that high if the Mariners keep both he and Chris Taylor. Miller improved to .268/.330/.464 in his bit role sharing time with Taylor in the second half (only 97 at-bats).

8. Andrelton Simmons – Braves

Projection: .287/.338/.436, 15 HR, 75 R, 64 RBI, 11 SB in 578 AB

2014 stats: .244/.286/.331, 7 HR, 44 R, 46 RBI, 4 SB in 540 AB

I thought 50 extra-base hits at age 23 was a really good sign for Simmons. He had just 29 this year, with his ISO dropping from .148 to .087. I’m not sure what to expect next. He showed power in 2013, and since he has one of the best strikeout rates of any regular in the game (55 K’s in 658 PA in 2013, 60 in 576 PA this year), he really should be hitting for better averages, too.

9. Starlin Castro – Cubs

Projection: .281/.325/.404, 11 HR, 76 R, 55 RBI, 16 SB in 616 AB

2014 stats: .292/.339/.438, 14 HR, 58 R, 65 RBI, 4 SB in 428 AB

10. Alexei Ramirez – White Sox

Projection: .280/.316/.395, 11 HR, 64 R, 60 RBI, 21 SB in 575 AB

2014 stats: .273/.305/.408, 15 HR, 82 R, 74 RBI, 21 SB in 622 AB

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Indians/Nationals

Projection: .274/.335/.435, 17 HR, 71 R, 68 RBI, 8 SB in 536 AB

2014 stats: .241/.307/.387, 14 HR, 74 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB in 553 AB

12. Ben Zobrist – Rays

Projection: .264/.358/.414, 15 HR, 78 R, 68 RBI, 12 SB in 565 AB

2014 stats: .272/.354/.395, 10 HR, 83 R, 52 RBI, 10 SB in 570 AB

14. Erick Aybar – Angels

Projection: .283/.327/.398, 8 HR, 66 R, 52 RBI, 17 SB in 533 AB

2014 stats: .278/.321/.379, 7 HR, 77 R, 68 RBI, 16 SB in 589 AB

16. Jhonny Peralta – Cardinals

Projection: .271/.328/.405, 13 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB in 524 AB

2014 stats: .263/.336/.443, 21 HR, 61 R, 75 RBI, 3 SB in 560 AB

I certainly wasn’t expecting 21 homers from Peralta. He hit 13 in 531 at-bats in 2012 and 11 in 409 at-bats pre-steroid suspension in 2013. Plus, Busch Stadium tends to be unkind to right-handed power hitters.

18. Jimmy Rollins – Phillies

Projection: .242/.311/.376, 13 HR, 73 R, 50 RBI, 22 SB in 545 AB

2014 stats: .243/.323/.394, 17 HR, 78 R, 55 RBI, 28 SB in 538 AB

19. Alcides Escobar – Royals

Projection: .267/.303/.358, 5 HR, 56 R, 48 RBI, 25 SB in 528 AB

2014 stats: .285/.317/.377, 3 HR, 74 R, 50 RBI, 31 SB in 579 AB

20. Chris Owings – Diamondbacks

Projection: .262/.307/.405, 11 HR, 54 R, 56 RBI, 11 SB in 484 AB

2014 stats: .261/.300/.406, 6 HR, 34 R, 26 RBI, 8 SB in 310 AB

21. Stephen Drew – unsigned/Red Sox/Yankees

Projection: .250/.321/.412, 13 HR, 61 R, 58 RBI, 4 SB in 464 AB

2014 stats: .162/.237/.299, 7 HR, 18 R, 26 RBI, 1 SB in 271 AB

22. Derek Jeter – Yankees

Projection: .274/.340/.366, 7 HR, 60 R, 45 RBI, 4 SB in 445 AB

2014 stats: .256/.304/.313, 4 HR, 47 R, 50 RBI, 10 SB in 581 AB

I gave Jeter’s projection a little boost after he announced his retirement, which probably wasn’t necessary. I originally had him at .269/.339/.356 with 6 HR in 424 AB. Jeter managed to go the whole season injury free, which was a big surprise, but there just wasn’t any juice left in his bat. Ben Revere was the only batting title qualifier with a lower ratio of extra-base hits to plate appearances.

25. Dee Gordon – Dodgers

Projection: .262/.324/.335, 2 HR, 42 R, 20 RBI, 35 SB in 328 AB

2014 stats: .289/.326/.378, 2 HR, 92 R, 34 RBI, 64 SB in 609 AB

26. Jonathan Villar – Astros

Projection: .225/.299/.308, 5 HR, 49 R, 35 RBI, 32 SB in 426 AB

2014 stats: .209/.267/.354, 7 HR, 31 R, 27 RBI, 17 SB in 263 AB

Villar got some hype this spring, but he just seemed like such a poor bet to hit. At least he did show some power. He still has significant fantasy upside

because of his speed, but I can’t imagine the Astros will hand him a starting job again.

27. Javier Baez – Cubs

Projection: .246/.291/.446, 13 HR, 39 R, 42 RBI, 7 SB in 285 AB

2014 stats: .169/.227/.324, 9 HR, 25 R, 20 RBI, 5 SB in 213 AB

Well, it’s going to get better. I’m just not sure it’ll happen right away in 2015. He might wind up back in the minors for a spell first.

Part two of the hitting projections review looks at the shortstops and outfielders. I have the top 10 shortstops and top 30 outfielders below, with some others of varying degrees of interest. Barring something unexpected, this will be the last Strike Zone until late January. 500 or so pitcher writeups, followed by another complete set of projections, should keep me pretty busy until then.

Shortstops

1. Hanley Ramirez – Dodgers

Projection: .314/.378/.548, 29 HR, 94 R, 92 RBI, 14 SB in 560 AB

2014 stats: .283/.369/.448, 13 HR, 64 R, 71 RBI, 14 SB in 449 AB

11 homers and 12 steals in the first half, but just two of each as he was increasingly banged up in the second. Even with Ramirez’s production well down from 2013, he still had a 132 OPS+. Only Troy Tulowitzki was better (170 in 91 games) among shortstops. A distant third on the list was Jhonny Peralta at 116.
 
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies

Projection: .304/.378/.530, 26 HR, 85 R, 92 RBI, 5 SB in 504 AB

2014 stats: .340/.432/.603, 21 HR, 71 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 315 AB

It’s going to be hard to justify a top 10 pick on Tulo next year. He was baseball’s best player for three months this year, but he’s played in 122, 143, 47, 126 and 91 games the last five years.

3. Elvis Andrus – Rangers

Projection: .287/.353/.385, 7 HR, 90 R, 62 RBI, 32 SB in 592 AB

2014 stats: .263/.314/.333, 2 HR, 72 R, 41 RBI, 27 SB in 619 AB

In his sixth full season, Andrus finished with the worst average of his career. His run total was tied with his worst, and his homer and steal totals were his second worsts. His OBP was 25 points off his career average. He did, however, lead the AL in times caught stealing. Andrus is just 26, but since his defense already seems to be in decline, he’s a worse player now than when he entered the league at age 20. Worse, worse, worse.

4. Jose Reyes – Blue Jays

Projection: .289/.345/.430, 12 HR, 86 R, 57 RBI, 26 SB in 533 AB

2014 stats: .287/.328/.398, 9 HR, 94 R, 51 RBI, 30 SB in 610 AB

5. Ian Desmond – Nationals

Projection: .264/.312/.436, 21 HR, 89 R, 73 RBI, 20 SB in 603 AB

2014 stats: .255/.313/.430, 24 HR, 73 R, 91 RBI, 24 SB in 593 AB

I expected Desmond to hit second, but Matt Williams went with him in the fifth spot instead (which was certainly the better place for him all along). That’s why the run and RBI totals are flipped.

6. Jean Segura – Brewers

Projection: .282/.335/.380, 8 HR, 82 R, 47 RBI, 37 SB in 610 AB

2014 stats: .246/.289/.326, 5 HR, 61 R, 31 RBI, 20 SB in 513 AB

7. Brad Miller – Mariners

Projection: .269/.343/.447, 20 HR, 86 R, 73 RBI, 11 SB in 577 AB

2014 stats: .221/.288/.365, 10 HR, 47 R, 36 RBI, 4 SB in 367 AB

This one was definitely a bust. I still think Miller can be a top-10 shortstop next year, with the caveat that it will be tough to rank him that high if the Mariners keep both he and Chris Taylor. Miller improved to .268/.330/.464 in his bit role sharing time with Taylor in the second half (only 97 at-bats).

8. Andrelton Simmons – Braves

Projection: .287/.338/.436, 15 HR, 75 R, 64 RBI, 11 SB in 578 AB

2014 stats: .244/.286/.331, 7 HR, 44 R, 46 RBI, 4 SB in 540 AB

I thought 50 extra-base hits at age 23 was a really good sign for Simmons. He had just 29 this year, with his ISO dropping from .148 to .087. I’m not sure what to expect next. He showed power in 2013, and since he has one of the best strikeout rates of any regular in the game (55 K’s in 658 PA in 2013, 60 in 576 PA this year), he really should be hitting for better averages, too.

9. Starlin Castro – Cubs

Projection: .281/.325/.404, 11 HR, 76 R, 55 RBI, 16 SB in 616 AB

2014 stats: .292/.339/.438, 14 HR, 58 R, 65 RBI, 4 SB in 428 AB

10. Alexei Ramirez – White Sox

Projection: .280/.316/.395, 11 HR, 64 R, 60 RBI, 21 SB in 575 AB

2014 stats: .273/.305/.408, 15 HR, 82 R, 74 RBI, 21 SB in 622 AB

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Indians/Nationals

Projection: .274/.335/.435, 17 HR, 71 R, 68 RBI, 8 SB in 536 AB

2014 stats: .241/.307/.387, 14 HR, 74 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB in 553 AB

12. Ben Zobrist – Rays

Projection: .264/.358/.414, 15 HR, 78 R, 68 RBI, 12 SB in 565 AB

2014 stats: .272/.354/.395, 10 HR, 83 R, 52 RBI, 10 SB in 570 AB

14. Erick Aybar – Angels

Projection: .283/.327/.398, 8 HR, 66 R, 52 RBI, 17 SB in 533 AB

2014 stats: .278/.321/.379, 7 HR, 77 R, 68 RBI, 16 SB in 589 AB

16. Jhonny Peralta – Cardinals

Projection: .271/.328/.405, 13 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB in 524 AB

2014 stats: .263/.336/.443, 21 HR, 61 R, 75 RBI, 3 SB in 560 AB

I certainly wasn’t expecting 21 homers from Peralta. He hit 13 in 531 at-bats in 2012 and 11 in 409 at-bats pre-steroid suspension in 2013. Plus, Busch Stadium tends to be unkind to right-handed power hitters.

18. Jimmy Rollins – Phillies

Projection: .242/.311/.376, 13 HR, 73 R, 50 RBI, 22 SB in 545 AB

2014 stats: .243/.323/.394, 17 HR, 78 R, 55 RBI, 28 SB in 538 AB

19. Alcides Escobar – Royals

Projection: .267/.303/.358, 5 HR, 56 R, 48 RBI, 25 SB in 528 AB

2014 stats: .285/.317/.377, 3 HR, 74 R, 50 RBI, 31 SB in 579 AB

20. Chris Owings – Diamondbacks

Projection: .262/.307/.405, 11 HR, 54 R, 56 RBI, 11 SB in 484 AB

2014 stats: .261/.300/.406, 6 HR, 34 R, 26 RBI, 8 SB in 310 AB

21. Stephen Drew – unsigned/Red Sox/Yankees

Projection: .250/.321/.412, 13 HR, 61 R, 58 RBI, 4 SB in 464 AB

2014 stats: .162/.237/.299, 7 HR, 18 R, 26 RBI, 1 SB in 271 AB

22. Derek Jeter – Yankees

Projection: .274/.340/.366, 7 HR, 60 R, 45 RBI, 4 SB in 445 AB

2014 stats: .256/.304/.313, 4 HR, 47 R, 50 RBI, 10 SB in 581 AB

I gave Jeter’s projection a little boost after he announced his retirement, which probably wasn’t necessary. I originally had him at .269/.339/.356 with 6 HR in 424 AB. Jeter managed to go the whole season injury free, which was a big surprise, but there just wasn’t any juice left in his bat. Ben Revere was the only batting title qualifier with a lower ratio of extra-base hits to plate appearances.

25. Dee Gordon – Dodgers

Projection: .262/.324/.335, 2 HR, 42 R, 20 RBI, 35 SB in 328 AB

2014 stats: .289/.326/.378, 2 HR, 92 R, 34 RBI, 64 SB in 609 AB

26. Jonathan Villar – Astros

Projection: .225/.299/.308, 5 HR, 49 R, 35 RBI, 32 SB in 426 AB

2014 stats: .209/.267/.354, 7 HR, 31 R, 27 RBI, 17 SB in 263 AB

Villar got some hype this spring, but he just seemed like such a poor bet to hit. At least he did show some power. He still has significant fantasy upside

because of his speed, but I can’t imagine the Astros will hand him a starting job again.

27. Javier Baez – Cubs

Projection: .246/.291/.446, 13 HR, 39 R, 42 RBI, 7 SB in 285 AB

2014 stats: .169/.227/.324, 9 HR, 25 R, 20 RBI, 5 SB in 213 AB

Well, it’s going to get better. I’m just not sure it’ll happen right away in 2015. He might wind up back in the minors for a spell first.

Outfielders

1. Mike Trout – Angels

Projection: .318/.406/.564, 30 HR, 114 R, 92 RBI, 31 SB in 576 AB

2014 stats: .287/.377/.561, 36 HR, 115 R, 111 RBI, 16 SB in 602 AB

I was hoping we’d squeeze one or two more 30 HR/30 SB seasons out of Trout before he slowed down on the basepaths, but that time is already past, it seems. It’s for the best anyway; Trout doesn’t need to risk injury and increase the pounding his body takes by trying 40 steals per year. Maybe he’ll stay in the teens for a few years, but I wouldn’t expect him to go back over 20 next year. He’ll top the rankings anyway, of course.

2. Ryan Braun – Brewers

Projection: .298/.377/.527, 31 HR, 99 R, 97 RBI, 21 SB in 590 AB

2014 stats: .266/.324/.453, 19 HR, 68 R, 81 RBI, 11 SB in 530 AB

Braun peaked at .327/.367/.595 on June 1. He had nine homers in 153 at-bats at that point. With his thumb becoming more and more of a problem, he hit .241/.307/.395 with 10 homers in 377 at-bats the rest of the way. Braun had surgery to deaden the damaged nerve in his thumb earlier this month. Whether he’s recommended next year will depend on how he looks in the spring. He’ll come at a steep discount, but I think the talent is still there.

3. Carlos Gonzalez – Rockies

Projection: .296/.364/.535, 29 HR, 97 R, 95 RBI, 24 SB in 531 AB

2014 stats: .238/.292/.431, 11 HR, 35 R, 38 RBI, 3 SB in 260 AB

Gonzalez obviously carries a big injury-prone rep now, but it was never really an issue for him in the minors. He put in full seasons every year until 2011, when he was limited to 127 games. It was 135 in 2012, 110 in 2013 and 70 this year. He’s not a lost cause yet, but that last knee surgery was pretty serious and it’s an open question whether he’ll show up at 100 percent next spring.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – Yankees

Projection: .289/.344/.435, 17 HR, 95 R, 71 RBI, 46 SB in 584 AB

2014 stats: .271/.328/.419, 16 HR, 71 R, 70 RBI, 39 SB in 575 AB

Ellsbury was driven in 83 times in 134 games with the Red Sox in 2013. The Yankees drove him in 55 times in 149 games. Though that’s still better than the 43 times they drove in Jeter from the two hole in 145 games.

5. Andrew McCutchen – Pirates

Projection: .304/.393/.499, 23 HR, 93 R, 82 RBI, 22 SB in 565 AB

2014 stats: .314/.410/.542, 25 HR, 89 R, 83 RBI, 18 SB in 548 AB

6. Bryce Harper – Nationals

Projection: .296/.379/.533, 27 HR, 93 R, 84 RBI, 22 SB in 520 AB

2014 stats: .273/.344/.423, 13 HR, 41 R, 32 RBI, 2 SB in 352 AB

Harper got banged up again this year, but at least it wasn’t from throwing his body around the outfield; instead, it was from throwing his body around the basepaths (he suffered a head injury in April when he was kneed trying to break up a double play and then the big thumb injury came on a headfirst slide into third base). Even after the disappointing showing, I still think I’ll project Harper to hit 30 homers next year. The steal projection will come way down, though.

7. Shin-Soo Choo – Rangers

Projection: .286/.391/.463, 21 HR, 108 R, 80 RBI, 17 SB in 594 AB

2014 stats: .242/.340/.374, 13 HR, 58 R, 40 RBI, 3 SB in 45 AB

8. Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins

Projection: .276/.388/.558, 38 HR, 90 R, 96 RBI, 4 SB in 543 AB

2014 stats: .288/.395/.555, 37 HR, 89 R, 105 RBI, 13 SB in 539 AB

The 13 steals were a complete surprise. Stanton had just one while dealing with his knee troubles in 2013, and he had never stolen more than six bases, even in the minors.

9. Adam Jones – Orioles

Projection: .277/.319/.474, 29 HR, 89 R, 101 RBI, 12 SB in 622 AB

2014 stats: .281/.311/.469, 29 HR, 88 R, 96 RBI, 7 SB in 644 AB

10. Justin Upton – Braves

Projection: .279/.367/.495, 29 HR, 88 R, 87 RBI, 14 SB in 560 AB

2014 stats: .270/.342/.491, 29 HR, 77 R, 102 RBI, 8 SB in 566 AB

11. Carlos Gomez – Brewers

Projection: .254/.310/.450, 25 HR, 95 R, 76 RBI, 38 SB in 607 AB

2014 stats: .284/.356/.477, 23 HR, 95 R, 73 RBI, 34 SB in 574 AB

I thought Gomez’s .284 average from 2013 would go down as a fluke. Obviously not. Gomez’s K:BB ratio has gone from 5:1 in 2012 to 4:1 in 2013 to 3:1 this year. 2:1 in 2015 is probably a stretch, but it’s still awfully encouraging.

12. Jay Bruce – Reds

Projection: .253/.331/.503, 37 HR, 89 R, 111 RBI, 5 SB in 592 AB

2014 stats: .217/.281/.373, 18 HR, 71 R, 66 RBI, 12 SB in 493 AB

Bruce was supposed to be as safe as picks come. And then that happened. I’d like to blame it on the knee, but it’s not like he was just struggling to hit for power; he was an awful hitter all of the way around.

13. Jason Heyward – Braves

Projection: .287/.375/.486, 24 HR, 99 R, 68 RBI, 14 SB in 558 AB

2014 stats: .271/.351/.384, 11 HR, 74 R, 58 RBI, 20 SB in 573 AB

Heyward hit 18 homers at age 20, 27 at age 22 and now 11 at age 24. At least he stole some bases this year (he had two in 2013).

14. Jose Bautista – Blue Jays

Projection: .263/.373/.514, 35 HR, 92 R, 94 RBI, 6 SB in 521 AB

2014 stats: .286/.403/.524, 35 HR, 101 R, 103 RBI, 6 SB in 553 AB

Bautista hit .302 in 2011, but apart from that, he had never hit better than .260 as a major leaguer. Now I’m half-wondering why I even projected him to hit as high as .263.

15. Hunter Pence – Giants

Projection: .275/.335/.454, 23 HR, 84 R, 91 RBI, 16 SB in 610 AB

2014 stats: .277/.332/.445, 20 HR, 106 R, 74 RBI, 13 SB in 650 AB

16. Matt Holliday – Cardinals

Projection: .286/.380/.473, 23 HR, 91 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 562 AB

2014 stats: .272/.370/.441, 20 HR, 83 R, 90 RBI, 4 SB in 574 AB

17. Yasiel Puig – Dodgers

Projection: .283/.345/.465, 20 HR, 91 R, 65 RBI, 22 SB in 561 AB

2014 stats: .296/.382/.480, 16 HR, 92 R, 69 RBI, 11 SB in 558 AB

I thought Puig’s value might hinge on whether or not he proved to be a big basestealer. As it turned out, he tried one fewer steal in 148 games (18) than he did in 104 games as a rookie (19). Given that his baserunning instincts are lacking anyway, it’s probably for the best that he doesn’t do all that much running. The power will almost certainly come back next year after he hit just four homers in the second half of this season.

18. Yoenis Cespedes – Athletics/Red Sox

Projection: .268/.326/.509, 30 HR, 77 R, 93 RBI, 13 SB in 530 AB

2014 stats: .260/.301/.450, 22 HR, 89 R, 100 RBI, 7 SB in 600 AB

19. Billy Hamilton – Reds

Projection: .252/.311/.332, 4 HR, 80 R, 34 RBI, 85 SB in 576 AB

2014 stats: .250/.292/.355, 6 HR, 72 R, 48 RBI, 56 SB in 563 AB

So, I guess 85 steals was overdoing it. It didn’t seem like it when Hamilton came up and swiped 13 bases in 13 appearances in 2013. He stole 155 bases in 132 games in the minors in 2012. Hamilton was supposed to be an excellent technical basestealer in addition to possessing blazing speed, but he was a disappointment in that regard. In the last 20 years, only Juan Pierre in 2004 (24) had more caught stealings than Hamilton’s 23 this season. My guess is that Hamilton does better both offensively and in the steal department next year (obviously, he could have swiped a few more bases this year if not for the .292 OBP).

20. Matt Kemp – Dodgers

Projection: .282/.351/.476, 22 HR, 69 R, 81 RBI, 18 SB in 483 AB

2014 stats: .287/.346/.506, 25 HR, 77 R, 89 RBI, 8 SB in 541 AB

When the projections came out in January, I had Kemp with 24 homers, 75 runs scored and 88 RBI in 529 at-bats. However, some additional caution seemed like a good idea when his surgically repaired ankle came along so slowly during the spring. Too bad I didn’t just lower his steal total instead.

21. Wil Myers – Rays

Projection: .266/.339/.469, 26 HR, 85 R, 90 RBI, 8 SB in 580 AB

2014 stats: .222/.294/.320, 6 HR, 37 R, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 325 AB

22. Carlos Beltran – Yankees

Projection: .257/.341/.474, 28 HR, 86 R, 95 RBI, 5 SB in 525 AB

2014 stats: .233/.301/.402, 15 HR, 46 R, 49 RBI, 3 SB in 403 AB

23. Michael Cuddyer – Rockies

Projection: .285/.347/.477, 21 HR, 82 R, 80 RBI, 8 SB in 533 AB

2014 stats: .332/.376/.579, 10 HR, 32 R, 31 RBI, 3 SB in 190 AB

24. Alex Rios – Rangers

Projection: .275/.324/.426, 15 HR, 71 R, 76 RBI, 29 SB in 571 AB

2014 stats: .280/.311/.398, 4 HR, 54 R, 54 RBI, 17 SB in 492 AB

25. Starling Marte – Pirates

Projection: .263/.317/.417, 14 HR, 85 R, 53 RBI, 42 SB in 593 AB

2014 stats: .291/.356/.453, 13 HR, 73 R, 56 RBI, 30 SB in 495 AB

26. Jayson Werth – Nationals

Projection: .285/.373/.470, 20 HR, 76 R, 75 RBI, 13 SB in 487 AB

2014 stats: .292/.394/.455, 16 HR, 85 R, 82 RBI, 9 SB in 534 AB

27. Michael Brantley – Indians

Projection: .303/.352/.437, 12 HR, 71 R, 70 RBI, 17 SB in 558 AB

2014 stats: .327/.385/.506, 20 HR, 94 R, 97 RBI, 23 SB in 611 AB

28. Desmond Jennings – Rays

Projection: .261/.336/.424, 16 HR, 84 R, 63 RBI, 32 SB in 547 AB

2014 stats: .244/.319/.378, 10 HR, 64 R, 36 RBI, 15 SB in 479 AB

Jennings stole 11 bases in his first 45 games and four in his last 78. It’s probably time to write him off as a top-40 outfielder. He’s never been nearly as good again as he was in 63 games as a rookie in 2011.

29. Kole Calhoun – Angels

Projection: .263/.337/.430, 18 HR, 94 R, 68 RBI, 17 SB in 577 AB

2014 stats: .272/.325/.450, 17 HR, 90 R, 58 RBI, 5 SB in 493 AB

Hard to blame Calhoun for not doing much running when Trout and Albert Pujols were hitting behind him.

30. Josh Hamilton – Angels

Projection: .266/.328/.475, 26 HR, 74 R, 92 RBI, 4 SB in 526 AB

2014 stats: .263/.331/.414, 10 HR, 43 R, 44 RBI, 3 SB in 338 AB

31. Domonic Brown – Phillies

Projection: .261/.324/.479, 27 HR, 72 R, 88 RBI, 9 SB in 532 AB

2014 stats: .235/.285/.349, 10 HR, 47 R, 63 RBI, 7 SB in 473 AB

Crash and burn. Brown doesn’t strike out all that much. He’s plenty strong enough to hit 27 homers again. He’s also fast enough to be a quality outfielder. But he isn’t. And I don’t want to bank on a rebound offensively, either.

33. Alex Gordon – Royals

Projection: .275/.352/.451, 19 HR, 76 R, 78 RBI, 10 SB in 546 AB

2014 stats: .266/.351/.432, 19 HR, 87 R, 74 RBI, 12 SB in 563 AB

35. Leonys Martin – Rangers

Projection: .269/.330/.413, 11 HR, 71 R, 64 RBI, 32 SB in 535 AB

2014 stats: .274/.325/.364, 7 HR, 68 R, 40 RBI, 31 SB in 533 AB

37. Torii Hunter – Tigers

Projection: .270/.328/.425, 18 HR, 81 R, 74 RBI, 7 SB in 560 AB

2014 stats: .286/.319/.446, 17 HR, 71 R, 83 RBI, 4 SB in 549 AB

38. Will Venable – Padres

Projection: .259/.326/.442, 20 HR, 78 R, 59 RBI, 22 SB in 529 AB

2014 stats: .224/.288/.325, 8 HR, 47 R, 33 RBI, 11 SB in 406 AB

Venable slugged .484 in 2013. His career slugging percentage entering this season was .431. He was just horrible in the first half, though, and while he rebounded nicely in the second (.261/.333/.401, 6 HR in 157 at-bats), the Padres had cut his playing time by then.

39. Nelson Cruz – Rangers

Projection: .252/.316/.468, 28 HR, 70 R, 88 RBI, 5 SB in 519 AB

2014 stats: .271/.333/.525, 40 HR, 87 R, 108 RBI, 4 SB in 613 AB

It’s interesting how Cruz suddenly turned durable in his 30s. His career high for games played through age 30 was 128. These last three years, he’s at 159, 109 (the steroid suspension) and 159. Of course, his excuse for trying PEDs was that he was using them to help get over an injury.

47. Curtis Granderson – Mets

Projection: .236/.330/.433, 26 HR, 73 R, 86 RBI, 12 SB in 538 AB

2014 stats: .227/.326/.388, 20 HR, 73 R, 66 RBI, 8 SB in 564 AB

48. B.J. Upton – Braves

Projection: .254/.329/.414, 18 HR, 74 R, 63 RBI, 22 SB in 551 AB

2014 stats: .208/.287/.333, 12 HR, 67 R, 35 RBI, 20 SB in 519 AB

Well, 2014’s 75 OPS+ was still a whole lot better than his 54 from last year.

49. Ben Revere – Phillies

Projection: .293/.331/.349, 2 HR, 70 R, 31 RBI, 36 SB in 553 AB

2014 stats: .306/.325/.361, 2 HR, 71 R, 28 RBI, 49 SB in 601 AB

50. Christian Yelich – Marlins

Projection: .273/.354/.410, 11 HR, 78 R, 50 RBI, 18 SB in 571 AB

2014 stats: .284/.362/.402, 9 HR, 94 R, 54 RBI, 21 SB in 582 AB

51. Coco Crisp – Athletics

Projection: .257/.326/.383, 10 HR, 71 R, 48 RBI, 25 SB in 467 AB

2014 stats: .246/.336/.363, 9 HR, 68 R, 47 RBI, 19 SB in 463 AB

53. Melky Cabrera – Blue Jays

Projection: .287/.330/.416, 10 HR, 70 R, 57 RBI, 8 SB in 527 AB

2014 stats: .301/.351/.458, 16 HR, 81 R, 73 RBI, 6 SB in 568 AB

57. Brett Gardner – Yankees

Projection: .261/.345/.382, 7 HR, 71 R, 52 RBI, 27 SB in 502 AB

2014 stats: .256/.327/.422, 17 HR, 87 R, 58 RBI, 21 SB in 555 AB

Favorite stat: Gardner led the Yankees in OPS this year and the AL in sacrifice bunts. Gardner kept hitting homers in the second half (eight of his 17), but he batted just .218 with a .286 OBP along the way.

61. Nick Castellanos – Tigers

Projection: .265/.320/.418, 15 HR, 62 R, 67 RBI, 8 SB in 536 AB

2014 stats: .259/.306/.394, 11 HR, 50 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB in 533 AB

64. Lorenzo Cain – Royals

Projection: .267/.328/.383, 9 HR, 60 R, 51 RBI, 19 SB in 491 AB

2014 stats: .301/.339/.412, 5 HR, 55 R, 53 RBI, 28 SB in 471 AB

67. Grady Sizemore – Red Sox/Phillies

Projection: .257/.341/.406, 12 HR, 63 R, 48 RBI, 6 SB in 404 AB

2014 stats: .233/.299/.354, 5 HR, 35 R, 27 RBI, 6 SB in 347 AB

71. Michael Morse – Giants

Projection: .264/.317/.441, 18 HR, 51 R, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 440 AB

2014 stats: .279/.336/.475, 16 HR, 48 R, 61 RBI, 0 SB in 438 AB

74. Khris Davis – Brewers

Projection: .231/.315/.428, 22 HR, 57 R, 70 RBI, 5 SB in 458 AB

2014 stats: .244/.299/.457, 22 HR, 70 R, 69 RBI, 4 SB in 501 AB

78. Marlon Byrd – Phillies

Projection: .267/.318/.405, 12 HR, 57 R, 59 RBI, 3 SB in 491 AB

2014 stats: .264/.312/.445, 25 HR, 71 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB in 591 AB

79. Alejandro De Aza – White Sox/Orioles

Projection: .264/.329/.395, 9 HR, 56 R, 42 RBI, 16 SB in 413 AB

2014 stats: .252/.314/.386, 8 HR, 56 R, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 477 AB

80. George Springer – Astros

Projection: .236/.329/.452, 16 HR, 42 R, 46 RBI, 19 SB in 314 AB

2014 stats: .231/.336/.468, 20 HR, 45 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB in 295 AB

84. Corey Dickerson – Rockies

Projection: .288/.336/.469, 9 HR, 51 R, 36 RBI, 8 SB in 320 AB

2014 stats: .312/.364/.567, 24 HR, 74 R, 76 RBI, 8 SB in 436 AB

91. Oscar Taveras – Cardinals

Projection: .282/.329/.458, 9 HR, 40 R, 39 RBI, 6 SB in 284 AB

2014 stats: .239/.278/.312, 3 HR, 18 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 234 AB

It’s going to happen for Taveras, but he was truly dreadful this year. He actually ended up with a lower OPS (by four points) than Allen Craig. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals opened next year with Randal Grichuk in right and sent Taveras back down for a spell.

104. Lucas Duda – Mets

Projection: .228/.336/.404, 16 HR, 47 R, 53 RBI, 1 SB in 386 AB

2014 stats: .253/.349/.481, 30 HR, 74 R, 92 RBI, 3 SB in 514 AB

112. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies

Projection: .278/.332/.417, 5 HR, 33 R, 21 RBI, 6 SB in 230 AB

2014 stats: .288/.335/.440, 19 HR, 82 R, 72 RBI, 28 SB in 593 AB

Blackmon wasn’t a very good regular after the big first month, but I really blew the fantasy projection here. I was so focused on getting Dickerson and Drew Stubbs their 300+ at-bats that I didn’t see how Blackmon could really stick as a starter. Of course, with Cuddyer and Gonzalez getting hurt, there were plenty of at-bats for all of them.

134. Josh Harrison – Pirates

Projection: .257/.300/.376, 3 HR, 26 R, 20 RBI, 7 SB in 210 AB

2014 stats: .315/.347/.490, 13 HR, 77 R, 52 RBI, 18 SB in 520 AB

153. J.D. Martinez – Tigers

Projection: .253/.309/.412, 5 HR, 19 R, 21 RBI, 1 SB in 170 AB

2014 stats: .315/.358/.553, 23 HR, 57 R, 76 RBI, 6 SB in 441 AB