Week 8 NFL picks: Saints march past Packers, Colts edge Steelers
There has already been some separation from the first seven weeks of the 2014 NFL season, but here’s that clichéd-but-true statement: “There’s still a lot of football left to be played.”
For the team coming home to much-needed Bayou cooking and everyone else with a disappointing record, it’s their version of “taking it one game at a time.” That’s what we do with these picks every week, too.
MORE: Power Rankings | Who your team hates after Week 7 | Fantasy stock watch
Game of the Week
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Packers are the better, more dangerous offensive team at the moment. But just like Aaron Rodgers helps spike their big-play passing and big-time running in Lambeau, Drew Brees and his teammates bring out their absolute big-game best in the Superdome. No visitor likes coming to the Big Easy at night … unless you’re on Bourbon Street.
Around a few corners on Poydras, the Saints haven’t lost a prime-time home game in five years. They’re 22-10 overall at night since 2006, are 8-2 when showcased on NBC’s Sunday night package, and went 4-1 anywhere at night last season. Given they lost bad in Dallas for their first foray under their lights in 2014, that makes them overdue. Look for Sean Payton and Brees to come out in attack mode to get a lead, and let the emotions and Rob Ryan’s own aggressive scheming go to work a bit. They also should have more success than Green Bay when turning to some smashmouth running to help limit Rogers’ time on the field.
On paper the Packers look like the much better team at 5-2, and the Saints seem to be on the on the ropes at 2-4. This is when Who Dat gets off the mat in a big way for everyone to see they’re still a scary threat. Saints 34, Packers 27
AFC Game of the Week
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The Colts were Sporting News’ preseason pick to win the AFC, so we need to trust them to win a game like this; that looks more daunting on paper than it actually is. Credit Chuck Pagano and Pep Hamilton for letting Andrew Luck loose, but also not losing sight of trying to improve in the running game. It’s turned into great complementary football, as the Colts’ pass defense has been outstanding while they play bend-but-don’t-break vs. the run.
The Steelers are struggling with those concepts. They seem to have a random offensive identity, from power running, to pure Ben Roethlisberger chucking, to wild tricks. They still sometimes play like their defense is dominant, when it fact can’t do much to slow down elite, mobile, strong-armed passers in Big Ben’s vein. Luck happens to be just that type of guy. The Colts are playing better “Steelers football” than the actual Steelers. Colts 24, Steelers 20
Game of Midweek
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (Thursday 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers’ biggest victory in their 9-7 jump into the playoffs last year, former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy’s first season as head coach, came on a Thursday night in Denver. They did it by playing ball control to a tee, and then finishing drives with touchdowns that put the game just out of reach.
That will be harder to repeat, and this will more resemble the Chargers’ playoff loss in Denver last January. The Broncos’ defense is better, and their running game has found something after the bye. In a twist, they will be the ones who want to string together long touchdown drives to make sure Philip Rivers isn’t on the field enough to catch up to Peyton Manning. As both QBs spread the ball around everywhere, the Broncos have a few more guys who can cover than the Bolts do. Broncos 30, Chargers 20
Rebound of the Week
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1 p.m., CBS). The Seahawks aren’t rushing the passer and taking away the ball like they did during their Super Bowl run. The Panthers aren’t stopping the run, rushing the passer or covering anything like they did during their NFC South title run. So what gives here? It really comes down to which dynamic dual threat quarterback, little Russell Wilson or big Cam Newton, is set up for better success based on the other issues.
That would be Wilson, because Seattle should be able to have Marshawn Lynch power through for chunk runs and have the speedy outside threats with whom to stretch the field. Newton has been making the most of the guys around him, but in a once slugfest that becomes a shootout, advantage goes to the former NC State quarterback back in Carolina. Seahawks 27, Panthers 24
Marshawn Lynch (Getty Images)
Lock of the Week
Dallas Cowboys over Washington Redskins (Monday 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Yes, we know when these archrivals meet in prime time, you’re supposed to “throw out the records.” But we’ve seen these archrivals play a lot of football so far, and we refuse to do that. The Redskins have a cute storyline of Colt McCoy, not Robert Griffin III, returning to the Lone Star State to start against the Cowboys. That’s about it. Washington might stop the run early, but it will be worn down in time. In the meantime, Tony Romo and his inside route receivers will dismantle the Redskins’ secondary, which won’t have the benefit of Brian Orakpo’s pass rush anymore. Big D delivers a big blowout. Cowboys 42, Redskins 17
Birds/Upset of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX). When we last checked in on Chip Kelly’s Eagles after a bye, guess who they beat the very next week. Last December, it was these same Cardinals. OK, these Cardinals aren’t the same. They’re not healthy enough to rush the passer, and when former Arizona Wildcat Nick Foles can get comfortable in the pocket, Kelly’s offense hums. Using multiple tight end formations will set up Foles to find more good matchups.
The Cards have stopped the run, but the Eagles have just started flying on the ground with LeSean McCoy. Arizona has the offense to challenge Philadelphia with its own speed back, Andre Ellington, and its ability to stretch the field with Carson Palmer. Both avian teams should have success pushing the ball downfield, but the Eagles win both the vertical and horizontal battles. Eagles 31, Cardinals 17
Rest of the Week
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX). Do not adjust your clock (yet). It’s strawberries and cream, breakfast at Wembley for us in the states. Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan are prime minister names for quarterbacks, but one’s headed to a bigger downer down the road from Downing Street. Stafford will keep winning because of his running game and defense. Ryan will keep losing while getting little help from either. The Lions will dominate up front on both sides and hold on across the pond. Lions 27, Falcons 17
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS). The Bengals stole this game in Week 1, but the Ravens have been the much better team of late and are primed to turn the table. It took a magical play from A.J. Green in the first meeting, and he is unlikely to be in the mix with his toe injury. Steve Smith Sr. is playing here, and he’s helped restore the toughness that allowed John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco to be a consistent playoff team. Cincy needs to find offensive answers after being blanked by Indy, but Baltimore’s nasty all-around D won’t let the host find it. Ravens 20, Bengals 17
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS). Geno Smith did some very good things against the Patriots, thanks to a revival for the Jets’ power running game. With Percy Harvin added, Eric Decker healthy and Jeremy Kerley paid more — throw in tight ends Jeff Cumberland and Jace Amaro — all is not lost around the second-year QB. Kyle Orton has looked the part of being better than EJ Manuel, but that whole caretaker vibe will be tested again with a depleted backfield. Rex Ryan will find a way to fool and frustrate the vet, while a little more of good Geno shows up to finish this week. Jets 23, Bills 20
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX). This always conjures up memories of the Bears romping past the Pats in Super Bowl XX, but Monsters of the Midway will need to cling to that. Their current team is supposed to be carried by its offense, but Jay Cutler keeps messing up all the good around him. The other side is falling apart because of injury and waiting to be picked apart by Tom Brady. While Marc Trestman is a passing-game guru, Bill Belichick gets it a lot more on what it takes to be a complete coach. Patriots 34, Bears 24
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX). Fun fact: Ryan Fitzpatrick played for the Titans last season. Based on the injury issues with Jake Locker and the fill-in Ineffectiveness of Charlie Whitehurst, they could have still used him. The Texans haven’t enjoyed much Fitzmagic, though, and Bill O’Brien is fuming at the lack of execution overall outside of J.J. Watt. Although this QB duel is a bust whoever’s passing, it should be another electric Watt show against whoever drops back for the home team. Texans 20, Titans 13
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS). We shouldn’t be trusting the Dolphins after an impressive win, because they’re bound to disappoint. But something is clicking again for Ryan Tannehill, more confident as a passer and more dangerous as a runner. The Dolphins have let loose their skill players. They run and stop the run, too. All that should be enough to get past the just-victorious Jags. Blake Bortles has a lot of that Tannehill arm and athleticism, but the experience, both for him and around him, aren’t the same. Dolphins 24, Jaguars 20
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX). Both teams are trying to right different kinds of sinking ships. Lovie Smith still thinks his Bucs have the talent to be a factor in the uber-weak NFC South, and he’s about half right. His defense needs to play much better against quarterbacks. It helps here that one of his coordinators, former Vikings coach Leslie Frazier, will be driven for a bit of revenge and can have his front seven go hard after rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Out of a bye, Tampa Bay delivers another ugly loss to the Vikings. Buccaneers 17, Vikings 16
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX). The Royals and baseball Cardinals just missed out on having a World Series, but I-70 still rules here with another “Governor’s Cup” battle. Both St. Louis and Kansas City took down some NFL powers in Seattle and San Diego last week, so there are good feelings on both sides of the state. But the Chiefs “Showed Me” a little something more with Jamaal Charles and their defense, while the Rams escaped after being outplayed in every phase except special teams. Whatever happens with the Royals at Kauffman, the Chiefs rule in Arrowhead and get back above .500. Chiefs 27, Rams 13
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). Cleveland really needs this game after blowing Jacksonville last week and having Tampa Bay next. The Raiders have knocked on the door of victory in tough matchups with San Diego and Arizona, but moral and close doesn’t cut it in the parity-driven NFL. The Jaguars just brought Cleveland back down to earth, so that should fire up Mike Pettine to get fierier. Brian Hoyer should also want to rebound from an awful outing with rumors of Johnny Manziel playing swirling again. Derek Carr is building a case for rookie of the year, but it hits a bump on the road. Browns 23, Raiders 14
Byes of the Week
The 3-4 New York Giants have been bit by the injury bug on offense, but Eli Manning and some skill position alternatives are helping out there. The concern is about the defense not being able to stop much, namely the run, and there may be less fun in store with Jon Beason not feeling good again. They look destined for 7-9.
The 4-3 San Francisco 49ers have survived the early part of their brutal schedule and did it with key wins over Dallas and Philadelphia. They need the bye to refocus on getting their offense balanced and more diverse while their defense inches closer to full strength with Aldon Smith’s suspension soon ending and other players soon healing.
Stats of the Week
Last week’s record: 9-6 (Better than flipped upside down)
Season-to-date record: 70-35-1 (Pleasant high, chilly low)
Locks record: 5-2
Upsets record: 5-2
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