Nik’s Picks: College Football Week 9 Betting Guide – LostLettermen.com
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Hello sports fans, and welcome back to Nik’s Picks for Week 9. We went 6-4 last week and now sit at 22-17-1 on the season. We’re overdue for a 10-0 week. THE TIME IS NOW!
The Notre Dame vs. Florida State matchup completely lived up to its heavyweight billing. The Irish were one bad pick play away upsetting the ‘Noles in Doak Campbell Stadium. Ironically, the offensive pass interference (illegal pick) brought back a touchdown catch made by none other than “The Admiral” David Robinson’s son, Corey Robinson. Darth Jameis and the ‘Noles were outplayed for most of the game but turned it on in the second half for the win.
If Clint Trickett’s mustache doesn’t have a Twitter account yet, it should. Dana Holgorsen’s Mountaineers upset the Baylor Bears in Morgantown and only seven couches were burned after the game. Baylor looked like King Hippo from “Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out” — once West Virginia found their weak spot, they just kept attacking it. The Bears couldn’t keep their pants up long enough to a get a solid punch in.
Arkansas will get a conference win at some point this year, but it wasn’t last week against Georgia. Nick Chubb matched his weight in rushing yards and added a couple of TD’s for good measure. The Bulldogs should steamroll their way to the SEC Championship Game.
Alabama completely rolled Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. The Tide won by a landslide, 59-0, which means that they averaged just about a point per minute of play. There was no one happier to see Johnny Football bolt for the NFL than Nick Saban and he wanted to remind everyone who wears the pleated khaki pants in the SEC West.
Oregon looked great against Washington … and they also played well. The Ducks may have one of the best throwback uniforms in college football. Oh, and their quarterback is OK too. Since losing to Arizona a few weeks ago, Oregon has been on a tear. If they can avoid another letdown against Stanford, they should quack their way to the Pac-12 title game and probably the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma lost a close one at home to Kansas State. After the game, Bob Stoops sent out over 1,000 recruiting letters to South American soccer prodigies in hopes of finding his next kicker. Bill Snyder is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football but he doesn’t care what you think. He’ll go into your house, drink a beer, eat a hamburger, tell some funny jokes, give a few high fives and leave you saying “that was a cool-ass dude.”
Watching Florida is like watching a train wreck; you just can’t look away. The Gators held Missouri under 150 yards and still managed to lose due to six turnovers. Florida’s offense is so bad they keep both teams in the game and I haven’t seen a seat as hot as Will Muschamp’s since I accidentally sat on a Bunsen burner in 10th grade chemistry.
The Sun Devils put a pitchfork in Stanford on Saturday night in Tempe. Stanford may have had the No. 1 defense going into the game but their offense is shakier than a baby deer wearing roller skates on ice. Maybe it’s time to dial up “the annexation of Puerto Rico” to get things going? At this point it couldn’t hurt.
Week 9’s “I’ll Have My Cake, Eat it Too and Then Try a Little Bit of Yours” Picks
Miami (-3) vs. Virginia Tech
The Thursday night game gives us an old Big East rivalry as the Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg. Miami is 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against Virginia Tech. Hokies coach Frank Beamer owns the ‘Canes but Tech is really banged up.
Both of these teams struggle with consistency but Miami has a couple of explosive playmakers on offense in Duke Johnson and Phillip Dorsett. Miami hasn’t won in Blacksburg since 2005 but are coming off a big win and a bye week. Kendall Fuller makes some big plays for the Hokies on defense but a rested Miami team gets the W on Thursday night.
Pick: Miami (-3)
No. 6 Oregon (-17.5) vs. Cal
Friday night lights! Oregon looks unstoppable right now and Cal just gave UCLA a run for its money. Cal is substantially better than last year, but do they have the bodies to slug it out with the big boys two weeks in a row?
I’m guessing no. The last time Cal lost by fewer than 20 to Oregon was 2010 and they haven’t won outright since 2008 with the high-flying Jahvid Best. Marcus Mariota gets the Ducks in a row and they won’t have their feathers ruffled in Berkeley.
Pick: Oregon (-17.5)
Texas vs. No. 11 Kansas State (-10.5)
Kansas State is coming off a huge win in Norman and this has the potential for a hangover game. Texas is getting thrashed by everyone this year, but you have to give Charlie Strong credit because this team does not give up. This Longhorns team defines itself on backdoor covers and is 4-3 ATS this year.
But Kansas State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Texas and the Little Apple has been kryptonite for the ‘Horns. This is a big number so I say take the points, watch the “Bill Snyder Dance Machine” on YouTube at halftime and hope that Texas keeps it close in the end.
Pick: Texas (+10.5)
No. 22 West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State (-2.5)
West Virginia played out of its (coal) mind against Baylor and somehow stopped that juggernaut offensive attack. Oklahoma State has benefited from a weak early schedule and its only two losses are to the two best teams it’s played.
The Mountaineers won last year but this could be a hangover game coming off the big win. The deciding factor will be Clint Trickett and his Ron Burgundy-esque lip warmer. It’s been nearly a year since Trickett didn’t throw for at least 300 yards in a game.
Pick: West Virginia (+2.5)
No. 1 Mississippi State (-13.5) vs. Kentucky
Both of these teams have covered five times this season, which makes things interesting. Mississippi State is coming off a bye week after a big win over Auburn and Kentucky got throttled by LSU in Death Valley.
Dak Prescott will be gobbling up yardage and Kentucky doesn’t have the bodies to stop Dan Mullen’s offensive machine. This game will be close until Mississippi State scores on their first possession.
Pick: Mississippi State (-13.5)
No. 3 Ole Miss (-3.5) vs. No. 24 LSU
All these teams do is cover. Mississippi is 7-0 ATS and LSU is 5-2. Both teams had blowout conference wins in Week 8 and should be rested up. This game is in Death Valley at night, which is scary no matter what LSU’s record is (LSU is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home).
I pick against Ole Miss every week thinking they’ll implode and they’ve proved me wrong every week. Also, the Rebels are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. the Bayou Bengals. LSU is too young and Ole Miss has too many players that’ll be playing on Sundays next year. Lay the points in a close, low scoring battle.
Pick: Ole Miss (-3.5)
No. 4 Alabama (-16.5) vs. Tennessee
Good ole Rocky Top is in for a show this weekend when the Crimson Tide come to town. Is Lane Kiffin the most hated man in Tennessee? Probably. I’m pretty sure they don’t like Nick Saban either because Alabama is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Butch Jones has the Vols trending in the right direction, but they may want to consider hanging back with the women and children when the big boys come to town.
Pick: Alabama (-16.5)
South Carolina vs. No. 5 Auburn (-17)
South Carolina has lost its last seven games to Auburn dating back to 1996. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecock team has underperformed most of this year and frankly, they’re just not that good. Auburn is coming off a bye week after a loss to Mississippi State.
If the Tigers can avoid shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly, they should handle South Carolina in Auburn. However, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach can dial up enough to not lose by 17. Take the points and hope Auburn gets off to a slow start again.
Pick: South Carolina (+17)
No. 13 Ohio State (-13.5) vs. Penn State
Ohio State is quietly thumping everyone in the Big Ten. That loss to Virginia Tech seems like forever ago and the Buckeyes have hung at least 50 points in every game since. Penn State is coming off back-to-back losses to Northwestern and (gulp) Michigan, but should be able to get healthy after a bye last week.
This game is in Happy Valley, but it’s been almost 10 years since the Nittany Lions beat the Buckeyes at home. Ohio State is too big, too fast and too deep for Penn State to hang around for four quarters. Ohio State wins big.
Pick: Ohio State (-13.5)
No. 20 USC (-1) vs. No. 19 Utah
The Trojans have shown some glimpses of being a great team this year but have been inconsistent. Utah has a solid defense and can wear you down with its workhorse running back, Devontae Booker. For SC to win, Cody Kessler will have to keep throwing dimes because they’re not going to be able to run it. I think Steve Sarkisian’s Trojans are a more talented team, but I’ll take the points and the home underdog that can keep the other team’s offense off the field.
Pick: USC (-1)
Recap
- Miami (-3)
- Oregon (-17.5)
- Texas (+10.5)
- West Virginia (+2.5)
- Mississippi State (-13.5)
- Ole Miss (-3.5)
- Alabama (-16.5)
- South Carolina (+17)
- Ohio State (-13.5)
- USC (-1)
Week 8 Record: 6-4
Season Record: 22-17-1
Agree? Disagree? Tweet me at @NikolasHolmes. All lines via Wynn LV (10/20/14).
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