Prospects: Almost-Ready AFL Prospects
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League. With six teams comprised of players from all 30 organizations, the AFL offers top prospects an opportunity to refine their skills long after the end of the minor league season.
For some players, the competition in the AFL is superior to anything they’ve previously experienced as a professional. For others, it’s a chance to prove to their organization that they’re ready to be challenged at the highest level.
Then, of course, there are the reclamation prospects―guys who were once highly touted but have since dropped off the major-league radar as a result of injuries, poor performance or stunted development. With these prospects, teams use the AFL to gauge whether or not they’re deserving of a spot on the 40-man roster, especially with the Rule V draft roughly two months away.
The 2013 AFL produced a diverse group of promising big leaguers this season, a group that includes Marcus Stroman, Jorge Soler, Tommy La Stella, Aaron Sanchez, Andrew Heaney, Ken Giles, C.J. Cron, Mookie Betts and Jonathan Schoop, just to name a few.
Believe it or not, this year’s AFL class is likely to churn out an even more impact talents. We took an in-depth look at eight prospects in part one two weeks ago and below you’ll find part two.
Rusney Castillo, OF, Boston Red Sox (Surprise Saguaros)
The Red Sox made Castillo the highest-paid Cuban player in baseball history last month, signing the 27-year-old outfielder to a seven-year, $72.5 million contract through the 2020 season.
Since Castillo hadn’t played organized baseball in over a year at the time of his signing, the Red Sox decided to call him up in mid-September to offer him as much professional experience as possible before the season’s end.
The 5’8”, 186-pound center fielder began his career by hitting safely in four consecutive games but went just 4-for-16 during that span. His fifth game marked Castillo’s first 0-fer in The Show, as he went hitless in four at-bats versus Tampa Bay. Still, considering he was being asked to make on-the-fly adjustments at baseball’s highest level, the fact that Castillo at least held his own out of the gate was in and of itself impressive.
But then he went off, going 8-for-16 with six runs scored, two home runs, one double and six RBI over his final five games. He also walked three times and stole a pair of bags.
Normally I’d suggest tempering expectations with Cuban players thrust into the spotlight in the major leagues. But after the recent successes of Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, I think it’s probably safe to err on the side of awesome when projecting Castillo’s potential impact.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (Salt River Rafters)
Byron Buxton is still viewed as the sport’s top prospect despite missing the first half of the season with a wrist injury, and then most of the second half after suffering a concussion in a terrifying outfield collision. There’s simply no other player who can match the 20-year-old center fielder’s combination of elite athleticism, legitimate five-tool potential and advanced secondary skills.
Buxton originally was supposed to begin the year at Double-A New Britain, in which case he would have been on schedule to debut with the Twins in August or September. However, given the amount of developmental time he missed this season, it’d be surprising to see him in the major leagues before mid-2015. That being said, a strong performance in this year’s Arizona Fall League could help get his promising career back on track headed into next season.
Buxton has the ceiling of an MVP-caliber player in his prime, with five potentially plus tools and a feel for making in-game adjustments. However, after losing nearly all of 2014 due to injuries, the 20-year-old now faces at least some pressure to make up for the lost time.
Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs (Mesa Solar Sox)
Addison Russell, 20, missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury prior to being dealt to the Cubs in early July. However, the shortstop seemingly benefited from the change of scenery, batting .294/.332/.536 with 12 home runs, 11 doubles and 36 RBI in 50 games at Double-A Tennessee. The only thing Russell didn’t do this season was steal bases, though that should have been expected after he missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury.
Russell makes lots of hard contact thanks to his plus bat speed and innate bat-to-ball skills, and he’s really started driving the ball to all fields over the last year. His swing will get long at times, but Russell gets through zone so quickly that his average won’t suffer due to strikeout totals. Lastly, his mature approach and pitch recognition will lead to plenty of walks and high on-base percentages during his career.
The right-handed hitter’s combination of plus bat speed and a deep point of contact should generate upwards of 20 home runs at the highest level, possibly more depending on his physical development in the coming years. And given his ability to use the entire field, Russell should always tally a high number of doubles and triples.
Overall, Russell has the makings of an All-Star-caliber shortstop, but there’s still a sizable gap between his present ability and overall potential. He should be ready to make an impact in major leagues at some point next season, though the Cubs first will have to determine where he’ll play given their impressive depth up the middle.
Steven Moya, OF, Detroit Tigers (Glendale Desert Dogs)
Steven Moya’s near-elite raw power has long ranked among the best in the minor leagues, but a rash of injuries―including Tommy John surgery―caused him to fall behind the developmental curve, which is why he reached Double-A Erie for the first time this year in his sixth professional campaign.
Suffice it to say that Moya helped to make up for the lost time in a big way, as he was named MVP of the Double-A Eastern League after leading the circuit in home runs (35), RBI (105), extra-base hits (71) and slugging percentage (.555)―all career highs. On top of that, his 35 bombs, 286 total bases, 71 extra-base hits and 105 RBI were single-season franchise records for Erie.
Moya also improved against same-side pitching, with a .262/.289/.529 batting line and 13 home runs, but his 56-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span suggests there’s still considerable room for improvement. Meanwhile, Moya continued to mash against righties, to the tune of an .885 OPS, 22 home runs and 24 doubles.
The Tigers rewarded Moya for his breakout performance with a September call-up, a decision that was made easier by the 23-year-old outfielder’s spot on the team’s 40-man roster. picking up his first big league hit in his first at-bat, Moya finished the regular season with three hits in eight at-bats for the Tigers.
Moya’s power and run-producing potential both are very real, but unfortunately so is his penchant for whiffing and limited hit-tool utility against left-handed pitching. But if he can continue to improve on those fronts, Moya should have an opportunity to carve out a role as corner outfielder or designated hitter.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Surprise Saguaros)
One of the more underrated hitters in the minor leagues, Winker, 21, showcased his mature approach and preternatural bat-to-ball skills this season by batting .317/.426/.580 with 28 extra-base hits and a 46-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 games at High-A Bakersfield. His production fell off after moving up to Double-A Pensacola, but it didn’t detract from his accomplishments in the California League.
Winker features a smooth, compact stroke from the left side of the plate and is already adept at using the entire field. More importantly, Winker possesses plate discipline and pitch recognition well beyond his years, which is reflected through his impressive strikeout (17.5 percent) and walk (14.3 percent) rates over 1,100 minor league plate appearances.
Winker has hit at least 15 home runs in each of his first two years in full-season ball, and his 6’3”, 210-pound frame and line-to-line approach suggest more will come. He did spend the final month-plus of the minor league regular season on the disabled list with a strained tendon in his right wrist, so it’ll be interesting to see whether it affects his power in the AFL.
Steven Okert, LHP, San Francisco Giants (Scottsdale Scorpions)
A fourth-round pick in 2012 out of Oklahoma, Okert, 23, spent most of the season in the hitter-friendly California League, where he ranked second with 19 saves and posted a 1.53 ERA with 54 strikeouts and 11 walks in 35.1 innings (33 appearances). The left-hander moved up to Double-A Richmond following the All-Star break and enjoyed similar success in the Eastern League, pitching to a 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 33 innings (24 appearances).
He finished the year with 24 saves, a 2.11 ERA and a 92-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 68.1 innings between both levels.
Okert works in the low- to mid-90s with his fastball and backs it with a swing-and-miss slider. However, his fringy changeup and below-average control limit his effectiveness against right-handed batters, evidenced by their .259/.320/.401 batting line this season in 180 plate appearances.
The good news is that he’s really tough on left-handed batters (.165/.240/.209 in 103 plate appearances), which should help him break through in a late-inning role with the Giants in 2015.
Rio Ruiz, 3B, Houston Astros (Salt River Rafters)
Rio Ruiz continues to be one of the best hitters in the minor leagues no one is talking about. The third baseman had a consistent season in the hitter-friendly California League, as he batted .293/.387/.436 with 50 extra-base hits and 77 RBI over 131 games at High-A Lancaster. He also amassed 82 walks and 91 strikeouts on the season, an impressive total for a 20-year-old in his second full season of professional baseball.
The main question for Ruiz is whether his power will develop in order to turn his doubles into home runs. He always has been viewed as an extra-base machine with excellent plate discipline and an advanced approach, but the left-handed batter has 70 doubles compared to 23 home runs in 245 games between both Class-A levels over the last two seasons.
If his power does not develop and he is not good enough on defense to play third base, he would be a tough fit as a first baseman who hits .280 with 10 home runs. But if everything clicks, he could be a third baseman who hits .300 with 20-plus home runs, making him into a potential All-Star.
The only thing separating Ruiz from the major leagues, save for experience, is Matt Dominguez, a career .233/.282/.382 hitter over 1,357 plate appearances in the major leagues. Ruiz will likely open the 2015 season in Double-A, but he’s a candidate to be fast-tracked up the ladder this year along with shortstop Carlos Correa.
Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics (Mesa Solar Sox)
Matt Olson, the No. 47 overall pick in the 2012 draft, ranked second in the Low-A Midwest League last year (his full-season debut) with 23 home runs. This year, the 20-year-old slugger led the California League and ranked third in all of the minors with 37 home runs. He also paced the league with 111 runs scored, 278 total bases and 117 walks.
The California League is hitter-friendly, but Stockton is slightly slanted toward pitchers, which makes Olson’s higher output at home (.262/.402/.591 with 21 homers) as opposed to on the road (.262/.406/.496 with 16 homers) all the more impressive.
Olson is the definition of Three True Outcome hitter, as he hit a home run (5.8%), walked (18.3%) or struck out (21.5%) in 45.6% of his 638 plate appearances.
The A’s are always looking to improve from within at first base and designated hitter, so it’s conceivable that Olson, who’s likely to open next season at the Double-A level, could be in the major leagues by the end of the 2015.
If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League. With six teams comprised of players from all 30 organizations, the AFL offers top prospects an opportunity to refine their skills long after the end of the minor league season.
For some players, the competition in the AFL is superior to anything they’ve previously experienced as a professional. For others, it’s a chance to prove to their organization that they’re ready to be challenged at the highest level.
Then, of course, there are the reclamation prospects―guys who were once highly touted but have since dropped off the major-league radar as a result of injuries, poor performance or stunted development. With these prospects, teams use the AFL to gauge whether or not they’re deserving of a spot on the 40-man roster, especially with the Rule V draft roughly two months away.
The 2013 AFL produced a diverse group of promising big leaguers this season, a group that includes Marcus Stroman, Jorge Soler, Tommy La Stella, Aaron Sanchez, Andrew Heaney, Ken Giles, C.J. Cron, Mookie Betts and Jonathan Schoop, just to name a few.
Believe it or not, this year’s AFL class is likely to churn out an even more impact talents. We took an in-depth look at eight prospects in part one two weeks ago and below you’ll find part two.
Rusney Castillo, OF, Boston Red Sox (Surprise Saguaros)
The Red Sox made Castillo the highest-paid Cuban player in baseball history last month, signing the 27-year-old outfielder to a seven-year, $72.5 million contract through the 2020 season.
Since Castillo hadn’t played organized baseball in over a year at the time of his signing, the Red Sox decided to call him up in mid-September to offer him as much professional experience as possible before the season’s end.
The 5’8”, 186-pound center fielder began his career by hitting safely in four consecutive games but went just 4-for-16 during that span. His fifth game marked Castillo’s first 0-fer in The Show, as he went hitless in four at-bats versus Tampa Bay. Still, considering he was being asked to make on-the-fly adjustments at baseball’s highest level, the fact that Castillo at least held his own out of the gate was in and of itself impressive.
But then he went off, going 8-for-16 with six runs scored, two home runs, one double and six RBI over his final five games. He also walked three times and stole a pair of bags.
Normally I’d suggest tempering expectations with Cuban players thrust into the spotlight in the major leagues. But after the recent successes of Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, I think it’s probably safe to err on the side of awesome when projecting Castillo’s potential impact.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (Salt River Rafters)
Byron Buxton is still viewed as the sport’s top prospect despite missing the first half of the season with a wrist injury, and then most of the second half after suffering a concussion in a terrifying outfield collision. There’s simply no other player who can match the 20-year-old center fielder’s combination of elite athleticism, legitimate five-tool potential and advanced secondary skills.
Buxton originally was supposed to begin the year at Double-A New Britain, in which case he would have been on schedule to debut with the Twins in August or September. However, given the amount of developmental time he missed this season, it’d be surprising to see him in the major leagues before mid-2015. That being said, a strong performance in this year’s Arizona Fall League could help get his promising career back on track headed into next season.
Buxton has the ceiling of an MVP-caliber player in his prime, with five potentially plus tools and a feel for making in-game adjustments. However, after losing nearly all of 2014 due to injuries, the 20-year-old now faces at least some pressure to make up for the lost time.
Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs (Mesa Solar Sox)
Addison Russell, 20, missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury prior to being dealt to the Cubs in early July. However, the shortstop seemingly benefited from the change of scenery, batting .294/.332/.536 with 12 home runs, 11 doubles and 36 RBI in 50 games at Double-A Tennessee. The only thing Russell didn’t do this season was steal bases, though that should have been expected after he missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury.
Russell makes lots of hard contact thanks to his plus bat speed and innate bat-to-ball skills, and he’s really started driving the ball to all fields over the last year. His swing will get long at times, but Russell gets through zone so quickly that his average won’t suffer due to strikeout totals. Lastly, his mature approach and pitch recognition will lead to plenty of walks and high on-base percentages during his career.
The right-handed hitter’s combination of plus bat speed and a deep point of contact should generate upwards of 20 home runs at the highest level, possibly more depending on his physical development in the coming years. And given his ability to use the entire field, Russell should always tally a high number of doubles and triples.
Overall, Russell has the makings of an All-Star-caliber shortstop, but there’s still a sizable gap between his present ability and overall potential. He should be ready to make an impact in major leagues at some point next season, though the Cubs first will have to determine where he’ll play given their impressive depth up the middle.
Steven Moya, OF, Detroit Tigers (Glendale Desert Dogs)
Steven Moya’s near-elite raw power has long ranked among the best in the minor leagues, but a rash of injuries―including Tommy John surgery―caused him to fall behind the developmental curve, which is why he reached Double-A Erie for the first time this year in his sixth professional campaign.
Suffice it to say that Moya helped to make up for the lost time in a big way, as he was named MVP of the Double-A Eastern League after leading the circuit in home runs (35), RBI (105), extra-base hits (71) and slugging percentage (.555)―all career highs. On top of that, his 35 bombs, 286 total bases, 71 extra-base hits and 105 RBI were single-season franchise records for Erie.
Moya also improved against same-side pitching, with a .262/.289/.529 batting line and 13 home runs, but his 56-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span suggests there’s still considerable room for improvement. Meanwhile, Moya continued to mash against righties, to the tune of an .885 OPS, 22 home runs and 24 doubles.
The Tigers rewarded Moya for his breakout performance with a September call-up, a decision that was made easier by the 23-year-old outfielder’s spot on the team’s 40-man roster. picking up his first big league hit in his first at-bat, Moya finished the regular season with three hits in eight at-bats for the Tigers.
Moya’s power and run-producing potential both are very real, but unfortunately so is his penchant for whiffing and limited hit-tool utility against left-handed pitching. But if he can continue to improve on those fronts, Moya should have an opportunity to carve out a role as corner outfielder or designated hitter.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Surprise Saguaros)
One of the more underrated hitters in the minor leagues, Winker, 21, showcased his mature approach and preternatural bat-to-ball skills this season by batting .317/.426/.580 with 28 extra-base hits and a 46-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 games at High-A Bakersfield. His production fell off after moving up to Double-A Pensacola, but it didn’t detract from his accomplishments in the California League.
Winker features a smooth, compact stroke from the left side of the plate and is already adept at using the entire field. More importantly, Winker possesses plate discipline and pitch recognition well beyond his years, which is reflected through his impressive strikeout (17.5 percent) and walk (14.3 percent) rates over 1,100 minor league plate appearances.
Winker has hit at least 15 home runs in each of his first two years in full-season ball, and his 6’3”, 210-pound frame and line-to-line approach suggest more will come. He did spend the final month-plus of the minor league regular season on the disabled list with a strained tendon in his right wrist, so it’ll be interesting to see whether it affects his power in the AFL.
Steven Okert, LHP, San Francisco Giants (Scottsdale Scorpions)
A fourth-round pick in 2012 out of Oklahoma, Okert, 23, spent most of the season in the hitter-friendly California League, where he ranked second with 19 saves and posted a 1.53 ERA with 54 strikeouts and 11 walks in 35.1 innings (33 appearances). The left-hander moved up to Double-A Richmond following the All-Star break and enjoyed similar success in the Eastern League, pitching to a 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 33 innings (24 appearances).
He finished the year with 24 saves, a 2.11 ERA and a 92-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 68.1 innings between both levels.
Okert works in the low- to mid-90s with his fastball and backs it with a swing-and-miss slider. However, his fringy changeup and below-average control limit his effectiveness against right-handed batters, evidenced by their .259/.320/.401 batting line this season in 180 plate appearances.
The good news is that he’s really tough on left-handed batters (.165/.240/.209 in 103 plate appearances), which should help him break through in a late-inning role with the Giants in 2015.
Rio Ruiz, 3B, Houston Astros (Salt River Rafters)
Rio Ruiz continues to be one of the best hitters in the minor leagues no one is talking about. The third baseman had a consistent season in the hitter-friendly California League, as he batted .293/.387/.436 with 50 extra-base hits and 77 RBI over 131 games at High-A Lancaster. He also amassed 82 walks and 91 strikeouts on the season, an impressive total for a 20-year-old in his second full season of professional baseball.
The main question for Ruiz is whether his power will develop in order to turn his doubles into home runs. He always has been viewed as an extra-base machine with excellent plate discipline and an advanced approach, but the left-handed batter has 70 doubles compared to 23 home runs in 245 games between both Class-A levels over the last two seasons.
If his power does not develop and he is not good enough on defense to play third base, he would be a tough fit as a first baseman who hits .280 with 10 home runs. But if everything clicks, he could be a third baseman who hits .300 with 20-plus home runs, making him into a potential All-Star.
The only thing separating Ruiz from the major leagues, save for experience, is Matt Dominguez, a career .233/.282/.382 hitter over 1,357 plate appearances in the major leagues. Ruiz will likely open the 2015 season in Double-A, but he’s a candidate to be fast-tracked up the ladder this year along with shortstop Carlos Correa.
Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics (Mesa Solar Sox)
Matt Olson, the No. 47 overall pick in the 2012 draft, ranked second in the Low-A Midwest League last year (his full-season debut) with 23 home runs. This year, the 20-year-old slugger led the California League and ranked third in all of the minors with 37 home runs. He also paced the league with 111 runs scored, 278 total bases and 117 walks.
The California League is hitter-friendly, but Stockton is slightly slanted toward pitchers, which makes Olson’s higher output at home (.262/.402/.591 with 21 homers) as opposed to on the road (.262/.406/.496 with 16 homers) all the more impressive.
Olson is the definition of Three True Outcome hitter, as he hit a home run (5.8%), walked (18.3%) or struck out (21.5%) in 45.6% of his 638 plate appearances.
The A’s are always looking to improve from within at first base and designated hitter, so it’s conceivable that Olson, who’s likely to open next season at the Double-A level, could be in the major leagues by the end of the 2015.
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