The seventh week of NFL play just brought back flashbacks to Jim Mora. Could’ve, would’ve, should’ve.
While we earned winning marks both straight up and against the spread, it could have been a phenomenal week if not for brain freezes when picking Oakland for a second consecutive week and picking against Peyton Manning ATS.
Also, one of these weeks, I’m going to realize Chicago is not a good football team.
As we move forward, trends become more and more important. If a team can’t win on the road the first half the season or can’t hold on in close games, that usually doesn’t change much in the second half. If a team looks like a playoff team the first half of the season, a vast majority of the time, it’s because they are.
If a team can’t run the ball or stop the pass through seven games, it rarely differs later on..
Therefore, the key to being successful is watching trends, and going with what feels right. If it doesn’t make sense, there’s a reason. Always use reason.
Let’s see if we can keep rolling on the heels of success in Week 7.
(Weekly, overall picks results for Jim Derry and readers listed at bottom. CONGRATS to “saintsfan okla” for being the Week 7 winner and to STEVEN RAWLINS, the overall leader among readers.)
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WEEK 8 PICKS (home team in bold):
16 points: NO PICK due to byes. Record: 2-1.
THE “SURE THINGS”
15 points: DALLAS over WASHINGTON, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
As I said last week, I have bought what Dallas is selling. It’s not a coincidence, either, how much better this team plays when there is less pressure on Tony Romo with DeMarco Murray playing so well. However, if you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know that I rarely give that many points, no matter how bad the opponent or where the game is being played. Against the spread: Washington plus-9.5.
Last week: New England over NY Jets (W). Record: 4-2. ATS, Jets +10.5 (W).
14 points: KANSAS CITY over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at noon
The Chiefs showed a well-coached team plays consistently on the road or at home. As proof the Rams win was a fluke last week, the Seahawks had nearly 200 more total yards than their opponent. In other words, for those putting stock in St. Louis, you can bet they put every ounce of effort they had in that victory. There can’t be much left. Against the spread: Kansas City minus-6.5.
Last week: Baltimore over Atlanta (W). Record: 4-2. ATS, Ravens -5.5 (W).
FAIRLY SAFE
13 points: MIAMI over JACKSONVILLE, Sunday at noon
Wish I would have had the guts to straight-up pick the Jags last week, as it was obvious they were close to their first victory. Now, with a sigh of relief, they’re matched up against a legitimate playoff contender that won handily on the road at Chicago last Sunday. Although the Dolphins have been a bit up and down, it would be a huge surprise to see them slip up here. Against the spread: Miami minus-5.5.
Last week: Seattle over St. Louis (L). Record: 4-3. ATS, Seahawks -6.5 (L)
12 points: CLEVELAND over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
The Browns are who we thought they were, right? But they have played very well at home, and have covered all three at FirstEnergy Stadium. Meanwhile, the Raiders are coming off four of five home games and have scored more than two touchdowns in a game just once all season. While Derek Carr’s progression seems to be moving forward a bit, he is going to have trouble against a team that is seventh-toughest in QB rating against. However, there’s still a little too much love from Vegas for the Browns, and this line is a bit skewed. Against the spread: Oakland plus-7.5.
Last week: Green Bay over Carolina (W). Record: 7-0. ATS, Packers -6.5 (W)
11 points: INDIANAPOLIS over PITTSBURGH, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Given a gift from the football gods at the end of the first half Monday night, the Steelers were the first team in 12 seasons to score 24 points over a three-minute span. Without it, they probably don’t beat Houston. Besides that, it’s clear something is wrong with the Steelers, while Andrew Luck and the Colts are a sure Super Bowl contender that not only has won five in a row straight up, but five in a row ATS. Pittsburgh hasn’t won two consecutive games ATS since last season. Against the spread: Indianapolis minus-2.5.
Last week: Dallas over NY Giants (W). Record: 4-3. ATS, Cowboys -5.5 (W)
10 points: SEATTLE over CAROLINA, Sunday at noon
We’ve already talked about how Seattle’s loss to St. Louis was a fluke. What wasn’t a fluke is Carolina’s defense giving up 37 or more points for the fourth time in five games. Who wants to play a really ticked off Seattle team? Certainly not one that’s reeling. Against the spread: Seattle minus-4.5.
Last week: Buffalo over Minnesota (W). Record: 5-2. ATS, Vikings +4.5 (W)
OUT ON A LIMB
9 points: DETROIT over ATLANTA, Sunday at 8:30 a.m. in London
On the surface, this seems like it should be an easy choice. The Lions are coming off a gift victory and need to win to keep up with the surging Packers. Meanwhile, the Falcons can’t do anything away from home and are beginning to look like they’re headed for the tank. Not sure who’ll be up to see this game from across the pond so early in the morning, but this could be one of the week’s best, as Atlanta will be in survival mode and it should come down to the wire. I just don’t think they have enough to pull the upset. Against the spread: Atlanta plus-3.5.
Last week: Chicago over Miami (L). Record: 4-3. ATS, Bears -3.5 (L)
8 points: DENVER over SAN DIEGO, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
Considering the prime-time spotlight, only a moron could have predicted Peyton Manning would have to wait a week before earning that coveted touchdown record. Oh wait, that was me. What was I thinking? Maybe my old brain was reminiscing back to one of my first assignments as a sports writer when I covered Manning playing basketball as a sophomore at Newman. Or maybe I wasn’t thinking at all. Anyway, with all of last week’s pomp and circumstance, it would only be human for Manning and the rest of the Broncos to have a slight letdown. But not enough to pick them to lose straight up at home in a key division matchup. Against the spread: San Diego plus-7.5.
Last week: Indianapolis over Cincinnati (W). Record: 4-3. ATS, Colts -3.5 (W)
7 points: NEW ENGLAND over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
For the first four weeks of the season, these teams were two of the toughest to predict. One week great, the next, who knows? Now, it’s clear the Bears are dealing with internal strife, while Bill Belichick has denounced an early demise with authority, despite last week’s close one against a division rival. Against the spread: New England minus-6.5.
Last week: Washington over Tennessee (W). Record: 6-1. ATS, Redskins -4.5 (L)
YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN
6 points: PHILADELPHIA over ARIZONA, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Although these teams play completely different brands of football, they are very evenly matched on paper. What it comes down for me is that the Eagles are coming off their bye week, and their defense is a bit underrated. While experts seem to focus on the Eagles’ offense, which hasn’t quite lived up to its potential, Chip Kelly’s squad has done just enough. That and the Cardinals have played a bit over their heads. Against the spread: Philadelphia plus-2.5.
Last week: Houston over Pittsburgh (L). Record: 5-2. ATS, Texans +3.5 (L)
5 points: HOUSTON over TENNESSSEE, Sunday at noon
After self-destructing at Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Texans should come out focused against a Titans team that doesn’t have much to offer, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Oddsmakers seem to be waiting to see who is actually going to be on the field Sunday, so this line could change drastically. No matter, I like Houston and Arian Foster against the 22nd-ranked defense against the run in a rout. Against the spread: Houston minus-1.5.
Last week: Denver over San Francisco (W). Record: 5-2. ATS, 49ers +6.5 (L)
4 points: CINCINNATI over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon
It’s not time to give up on the Bengals, who have gone through a rough patch (as predicted). At the same time, it’s clear the Ravens aren’t the same team on the road. Good football teams find a way to claw back, especially at home. With this posing as an early season must-win in a division rivalry, expect Cincinnati to be completely focused. Against the spread: Cincinnati even.
Last week: Cleveland over Jacksonville (L). Record: 3-4. ATS, Jaguars +5.5 (W)
3 points: MINNESOTA over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon
Who in their right mind would pick Tampa Bay to win, regardless of the opponent? That’s not a ringing endorsement for the Vikings, but at least they’re showing some signs of life. Minnesota is a team in transition, while Tampa Bay is a team in position to earn a really high draft pick. Vegas already has lowered the line, and it might be even by Sunday. Against the spread: Minnesota plus-1.5.
Last week: Arizona over Oakland (W). Record: 6-1. ATS, Raiders +3.5 (L)
2 points: NY JETS over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon
Is this the week Rex Ryan gets canned? If he doesn’t win this one, it very well could be. However, with the Bills’ running game in disarray with the loss of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, the Jets should be able to contain Kyle Orton. (Yes, I’m still not giving Kyle Orton any respect.) Even Vegas is showing the Jets some love, and this spread could go to 3.5 by Sunday. Against the spread: NY Jets minus-2.5.
Last week: Kansas City over San Diego (W). Record: 5-2. ATS, Chiefs +4.5 (W)
1 point: NEW ORLEANS over GREEN BAY, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
The American public is going to bet the farm on the Packers, who are arguably playing the best football in the NFC right now, along with Dallas. But just a few short weeks ago, talking heads were saying the Packers should be in panic mode, while the Saints had nothing to worry about. The facts are well-documented, and one thing that’s hard to pick against: the Saints haven’t lost at home under Sean Payton since falling to Tampa Bay in the regular-season finale of 2010. That’s a staggering stat I’m not willing to pick against, especially with everyone and their Aunt Jenny taking Green Bay. Yep, I’m using stats over Aunt Jenny’s wisdom. Against the spread: New Orleans minus-1.5 (could be even by Sunday).
Last week: New Orleans over Detroit (L). Record: 4-3. ATS, Saints +2.5 (W)
* Spreads are gathered from oddsshark.com on Tuesday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 10-5. Season: 72-34 (.679).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 9-6. Season: 39-35 (.527). (Didn’t start ATS picks until Week 3.)
POINT TOTALS
Week 7: 87/120 or possible points (.725). Weekly rank: T16 out of 78. Overall: 593 or 587/859 (.690 or 683). Overall rank: T7 of 157.
Week 7 READERS leader: “saintsfan okla,” 99/120 (.825).
Overall READERS leader: Steven Rawlins, 620/859 (.722)
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 7: 10-5 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 6: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 5: 13-2 straight up, 7-8 ATS
Week 4: 10-3 straight up, 10-3 ATS
Week 3: 10-6 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 2: 11-5 straight up, no picks ATS
Week 1: 10-6 straight up, no picks ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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