Talladega race part mystery as strategies will vary
TALLADEGA, Ala. — Drivers expect chaos to erupt Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.
The only question is when.
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In what could be a frantic 188 laps or a parade until the last 15 or 20, no one seems to be really sure what to expect when the Geico 500 goes green Sunday at Talladega.
Typically, this race is a single-file event early on with drivers just logging laps. Several stay far back from the pack in order to lower their chances of getting involved in an early wreck. They then make their way up to the front over the final 40 laps.
But with five drivers — Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. — knowing that the only way they can guarantee themselves a spot in the next round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup is with a win, that could change the dynamic.
Drivers found out in May that with the current aerodynamic package, they had trouble making the outside line work. That should mean they’ll be more aggressive.
But last year’s fall race was one of the least aggressive. That was under the old points format. The new points format, with drivers being officially knocked out of the Chase every three races, has Talladega as one of the elimination events and some expecting sparks to fly early.
“To try and tell you it will be highly aggressive, I have a feeling it won’t,” Keselowski said. “I have a feeling it will be a very conservative race, but I don’t know.
“I feel like if you come in here protecting a points leads or a lead on the cut-off that you are just going to race conservative and try to ensure you are around at the end, but I can’t speak for everyone else’s style or ideals.”
Earnhardt thinks because of the must-win dynamic, at least himself and some others will work hard to get to the front early.
“You’re going to see a handful of guys who are eager to be doing something and active and proactive toward moving to the front the entire race,” Earnhardt said. “And that just might be enough to pull along another handful of guys to get in the middle of that and move forward as well.”
Much like the end of the race last week at Charlotte, drivers expect a frantic final few laps. The thing is, the last few laps at Talladega typically are frantic with big wrecks.
“Several of these race cars are going to have guys inside there, driving and thinking about the situation and understanding how dire and critical things are,” Earnhardt said. “And probably that’s going to trigger guys to be making moves and trigger guys to be doing things with more urgency than you typically would at one of these races.
“Where we’ve seen the field sort of line up and run the top and knock off 150 miles just to get it out of the way. You might not see that so much.”
The other problem with predicting the type of race? As Earnhardt has said, each plate race typically has its own dynamic.
“I’ve rode in the back, and won a race here before,” said Jamie McMurray, who won at Talladega last year. “I’ve also rode in the back and been crashed. So, I think the best way to go about it is to just race all day long.”
McMurray isn’t in the Chase and is looking for his first win this year. He has nothing to lose. There are five drivers with plenty to lose as Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin don’t need top-10s to advance. Busch needs just to finish 24th, Newman 19th, Edwards 18th, Gordon 16th and Hamlin 15th.
“If I was leading the points, I probably would still be in the back,” Gordon said. “There’s no set strategy on what gets you that finish. I’ve tried everything over the years and have been unsuccessful with all of them and had success on occasion with all of them.”
At the end of the race, don’t be surprised to seeing all the drivers who need to win to be the ones making the most moves.
“I can promise you that with four guys needing to win to transfer at the end of the race there will definitely be some racing,” Johnson said. “It may be the four of us on the bottom trying to find our way around in a different lane trying to get to the front.
“But there are at least four that have a really good reason to take chances, be aggressive and try to win.”
Some believe it will just come down to the racing gods.
“There’s no safe place out there,” Gordon said. “I go into Talladega and I think of your destiny.
“If it’s your destiny to move past to the next round, if it’s your destiny to have a top-five at Talladega and it’s meant to be, then it will happen for you. If it’s not, then it’s not going to happen.”
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