NFL picks, Week 7: 49ers won’t beat the Broncos but will keep it close – CBSSports.com
The 49ers will have a difficult time beating the Broncos. (USATSI)
Each week, we’ll take the best — and most clever — odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?
Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread, and all statistics only include the regular season.
Game One: Broncos -6.5 vs. 49ers
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
| 2014 Against The Spread |
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| Overall: 2-3 | Overall: 4-2 |
| Home: 1-2 | Home: 2-1 |
| Away: 1-1 | Away: 2-1 |
| 2014 Team Rankings |
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| Pass offense: 4th | Pass defense: 2nd |
| Rush offense: 26th | Rush defense: 5th |
| Pass defense: 16th | Pass offense: 17th |
| Rush defense: 4th | Rush offense: 7th |
Verdict: Let’s get this straight: I’m 92 percent sure the Broncos are going to win this game. But it seems like I usually get sucked into taking the Broncos to cover in a game like this only to watch them fall short of the line (but still manage to win). I don’t love how injured the 49ers defense is, but I still like the 49ers running game (if they’d use it when the game is on the line) and I like how effectively Colin Kaepernick can play as he continues to learn in this league. He won’t beat the Broncos, but he’ll come close.
Game Two: Cowboys -6.5 vs. Giants
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
| 2014 Against The Spread | |
 |
 |
| Overall: 4-2 | Overall: 3-3 |
| Home: 1-2 | Home: 2-1 |
| Away: 3-0 | Away: 1-2 |
| 2014 Team Rankings |
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| Pass offense: 15th | Pass defense: 24th |
| Rush offense: 1st | Rush defense: 17th |
| Pass defense: 12th | Pass offense: 25th |
| Rush defense: 16th | Rush offense: 17th |
Verdict: The Giants fooled so many last week by taking a three-game winning streak into Philadelphia and then promptly getting destroyed by the Eagles (for the record, I was the only CBSSports.com expert to take the Eagles at -3.5 to cover). Are the Giants good, or are they simply inconsistent? And what about the Cowboys? Are we ready to proclaim them a true playoff contender? I’m not sure, but Dallas is riding a hot hand with Tony Romo and is coming off one of the best performances of anybody in the league this year by beating the Seahawks in Seattle. I like the Cowboys to continue their strong play by whacking New York.
Game Three (largest spread of week): Rams +7.5 vs. Seahawks
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
| 2014 Against The Spread | |
 |
 |
| Overall: 1-4 | Overall: 3-2 |
| Home: 0-3 | Home: 2-1 |
| Away: 1-1 | Away: 1-1 |
| 2014 Team Rankings |
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| Pass offense: 7th | Pass defense: 19th |
| Rush offense: 18th | Rush defense: 6th |
| Pass defense: 9th | Pass offense: 29th |
| Rush defense: 26th | Rush offense: 2nd |
Verdict: There are three games with a 7.5-point line, but since the Rams are the only home underdog of the three, we’ll go with this one. It’s clear the Seahawks don’t play as well on the road as they do at home (like most everybody else), and the Rams nearly scared the 49ers last week before losing by two touchdowns. But that’s the thing. St. Louis took a 14-0 lead on San Francisco and still lost by two touchdowns. The Seahawks are better than the 49ers, and they won’t be lulled into the same false sense of comfort against the Rams. This very well could be a blowout. Go with Seattle.
PROP BETS
How many yards will Peyton Manning‘s 509th record breaking TD pass be?
Over/Under 12½
I love this prop bet. No research can be done, no educated theories can be presumed. It’s a straight-up guess. Manning is at 506 career touchdown passes now, and when he gets No. 509, it’ll be under 12.5 yards.
Philip Rivers QB Rating Week 7 (Note: Rivers has a QB rating of 120 or better in an NFL record five consecutive games)
Over/Under 110½
Rivers is playing the best of any quarterback in the NFL this season, but the Chiefs, coming off their bye week, will have figured out a way to slow down Rivers. A little, anyway. Go under.
Last week: 3-0 against the spread; 0-2 on prop bets. This season: 11-7 against the spread; 4-11 on prop bets. Last three seasons: 67-70 against the spread; 54-46-1 on prop bets.
See my picks and all the CBSSports.com experts here.
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