NFL picks against the spread, Week 7: One upset amidst the chalk – SB Nation
I’m back with my Week 7 NFL picks against the spread. It was not a pretty week of picks, so we’re shaking things up.
I thought I was pretty special coming into last week with my 5-0 performance in the LVH SuperContest. It got me back into the thick of things and gave me some confidence. Of course, confidence can lead to overconfidence, and Vegas knows how to bring you back to reality. I slipped back to a 2-3 performance, and through six weeks I am 16-14 with my SuperContest picks. It is not an awful performance, but there is some work to be done.
And so, we are back for another five picks in the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. The 2-3 performance last week has me now sitting at 16-14, and right around the middle of the pack. As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here. Here are my picks for Week 7, with home team in caps.
BALTIMORE RAVENS over Atlanta Falcons (+6.5): That is a fairly sizable spread, but I have no faith in Atlanta on the road. Upsets happen, but I am taking my chances with the Falcons’ current 0-3 road record against the spread. They are also 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. They are better than they were last year, but I am sticking with Baltimore.
NFL Week 7
NFL Week 7
Cleveland Browns over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+5.5): Who would have thought the Browns were the team to keep riding? The Browns are a road favorite for only the tenth time in their post-1999 franchise history. Additionally, this marks the biggest spread they have had on the road. After walloping on the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, I don’t see how I can’t take them against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars squad. We’ll find out soon if these are the same old sorry Browns, or if they can go in and handle their business against what should be an inferior team.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Cincinnati Bengals (+3): I am a big fan of the Colts at home. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, and 4-2 ATS in their last six against the Bengals. I am still not entirely sure what to make of this Bengals squad. The absence of A.J. Green is problematic, and until he returns, this is far from the same team.
New York Giants over DALLAS COWBOYS (+6.5): My one upset pick is an odd one. The Giants are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 road games, but they are actually 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Cowboys. The biggest question is what to make of this Cowboys squad. They are coming off a huge win against the Seattle Seahawks, and I am betting on them having a letdown in this divisional matchup. I actually was pondering the New York Jets over the Giants this week. Naturally, the Jets went and covered, which I’m sure means the Giants will get blasted by the Cowboys. Fade this pick accordingly!
PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Houston Texans (+3.5): I don’t think the Texans are necessarily a “fraud” team as some have said, but they are not all that great. They face a scuffling Steelers team that got pounded by the Browns last week, and have exchanged wins and losses all year. This is more of a hunch pick than any of the others.
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