NFL against the spread picks: Now those are some bad beats
The term “bad beat” gets overused. It’s not a bad beat if the team you thought was going to win ends up losing, even if it’s in a heartbreaking fashion.
People who were on the Miami Dolphins at three points or less last week (the line crept above three points later in the week) didn’t take a bad beat when Aaron Rodgers threw a touchdown with three seconds left to give the Green Bay Packers a 27-24 win. People who were on the Tennessee Titans didn’t take a bad beat when the Jacksonville Jaguars scored a touchdown in the last minute to cover the spread. Those are just beats, albeit tough ones.
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You want a bad beat? How about a pick-six in the closing seconds that has nothing to do with the outcome of the game, but flips the result against the spread? And we had two of those last week.
The New York Jets were about 9.5-point underdogs last week and were about to cover before Geno Smith did this:
With all the money that poured in on the Broncos all week, I can only imagine the scene in Vegas sports books at that moment. Floyd Mayweather won $600,000 on that game (I’m sure he’s never lost any bets, because he’d of course post those tickets.
I figure a lot of money was on the Arizona Cardinals too, after Carson Palmer was announced as the starting quarterback. The Redskins were between 3.5- and 6-point underdogs, about to cover the spread, when Kirk Cousins did this:
As a nice little bonus, both of those plays caused the over/under totals in those games to go over. MGM Grand vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told ESPN.com those two plays cost the MGM half-a-million dollars.
Those were gambling miracles if you were on the Broncos, Cardinals or the over in either game. Meanwhile, there was someone on Sunday who was on the Jets, Redskins, Dolphins, Titans and the under on the first two games who has given up gambling forever.
Let’s try to avoid any bad beats as we move to this week’s picks, with the spreads coming from Yahoo’s Pro Football Pick ’em, as usual:
Jets (+9.5) over Patriots (picked Thursday): I was as surprised as anyone that the Jets kept it that close. They should have won straight up.
Bills (-5.5) over Vikings: The Vikings have lost four of five and have scored 29 points in those four losses, with no more than 10 points in any of them. The win over the Falcons, in which the Vikings scored 41 points, just points out that the Falcons stink, right?
Bears (-3.5) over Dolphins: Did the Bears turn the corner with that win at Atlanta? Maybe, and it sure seems like the Dolphins turned the corner the wrong way by collapsing against the Packers last week.
Saints (+3) over Lions: New Orleans hasn’t looked right all year, Jimmy Graham might not play and the Lions defense has been incredible. Still, I can’t write off Drew Brees and Sean Payton yet. I think the Saints win straight up.
Panthers (+7) over Packers: Deserves mention again that Cam Newton is playing very well this season. He was elite before this season, and very few noticed, and he’s elite again this season and maybe a few more will give him credit for it. But probably not.
Colts (-3) over Bengals: Tough game to pick. I’m still a believer in the Bengals being very good, but their defense is struggling. This one will be close, probably the best game on Sunday.
Seahawks (-7) over Rams: The Rams have played Seattle tough the last couple years, but that might just mean they won’t sneak up on the Seahawks this time. The Rams are a poorly coached team and I’m not sure they have the answers to stop Seattle, which should be motivated coming off a loss.
Redskins (-5.5) over Titans: First, Redskins fans (some, not all) were calling for Kirk Cousins. Now that Cousins is struggling, they (some, not all) are calling for Colt McCoy. I feel like Redskins fans would call for the Gatorade bucket if it was designated as the backup quarterback. All that said, the Titans are one bad football team.
Jaguars (+5.5) over Browns: This is strange territory for the Browns. Since they re-entered the league in 1999, this is just the 10th time they’ve been a road favorite, and this is the most they’ve ever been favored by on the road, according to OddsShark.com. The Jaguars got close to their first win last week, and the Browns might have a bit of a letdown after a huge win over the Steelers last week. I’m not sure the Jaguars will win but I think they can compete.
Falcons (+7) over Ravens: Sure, the Falcons aren’t very good. But still scary with those weapons when it’s late in the game and the backdoor cover is open.
Chargers (-4) over Chiefs: I don’t get this line. You’re telling me that if you take away the standard three points for home-field advantage (or two-and-a-half points or whatever the Chargers are getting these days), that San Diego is only one point better than the Chiefs? I disagree with that.
Giants (+6.5) over Cowboys: Like the Jets pick, I’m not sure now how the Giants will cover, but I think they will. Let’s see how the Cowboys handle prosperity.
Cardinals (-3.5) over Raiders: I take Arizona knowing this is a trap. I mean, is anyone picking the Raiders at that number?
Broncos (-6.5) over 49ers: For the real pick, I’m taking Julius Thomas to catch Peyton Manning’s record-breaking touchdown on Sunday night.
Texans (+3.5) over Steelers: Would it really surprise anyone if the Texans won straight up?
Last week: 5-9
Season to date: 45-46
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
