Matchups: Silva’s Week 7 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Atlanta @ Baltimore

Sunday’s Falcons-Ravens game has a 49.5-point over-under, second highest of Week 7 behind only 49ers-Broncos (50). There should be a lot of fantasy points scored in this one. … Joe Flacco will square off with Atlanta’s No. 29 pass defense having completed 65-of-98 passes (66.3%) for 868 yards (8.86 YPA) and an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio over his last three starts. Absolutely dealing, Baltimore’s $120 million quarterback is worth a serious look for QB1 streamers in arguably the most favorable matchup he’ll get all year. The Falcons have been torched by Eli Manning and Jay Cutler the past two weeks for 45-of-68 passing (66.2%), 581 yards (8.54 YPA), three touchdowns, and no picks. Atlanta ranks 28th in sacks. With LG Kelechi Osemele and quite possibly LT Eugene Monroe both due back from injuries, Flacco should have a clean pocket on Sunday. … Flacco’s target distribution through six games: Steve Smith Sr. 54; Torrey Smith 34; Justin Forsett and Owen Daniels 27; Jacoby Jones 12; Kyle Juszczyk and Kamar Aiken 9; Marlon Brown 5. … Allowing the 13th most fantasy points to wide receivers, Atlanta presents a plus Week 7 matchup for Steve Sr., who has at least 70 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in five of Baltimore’s first six games. The Falcons coughed up stat lines of 5-136 and 6-113 to Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall last week. Smitty is an every-week WR2. … After scoring two touchdowns in last week’s drubbing of Tampa Bay, is Torrey suddenly a fantasy starter? I tend to believe nothing has changed; he’s a boom-or-bust WR3 and has been since the start of the season. Smith boomed last week, and the Falcons’ defense is vulnerable enough for another boom. Torrey’s usage in OC Gary Kubiak‘s offense has been the same throughout.

The Falcons don’t do much well, but they do play stingy defense against tight ends. DC Mike Nolan‘s unit held Larry Donnell catch-less in Week 5, and Martellus Bennett to a 4-52-0 number in Week 6. On the season, Atlanta has allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends. It’s more reason to avoid Daniels’ already-low ceiling. Since Dennis Pitta was lost for the year in Week 4, Daniels has failed to hit pay dirt and is averaging under four catches for 50 yards per game. … All settled in as Baltimore’s primary back, Forsett was only out-carried 14-15 by Bernard Pierce last week because Pierce got more clock-killing run in the 48-17 blowout over Tampa Bay. Pierce likely didn’t earn more work by managing 32 yards on his 15 runs (2.13 YPC), while Lorenzo Taliaferro broke off gains of 25 and 4 on his two attempts. The Ravens’ No. 2 running back job may still be up for grabs week to week. Pierce and Taliaferro are just RB4/5 stashes. … Through six games, the Falcons have coughed up a league-high 11 rushing TDs to enemy tailbacks, while being stung for 767 yards on 174 carries (4.41 YPC). Forsett will pile up attempts for as long as this game is competitive. Averaging 14.5 touches, 88 total yards, and nearly four catches per game, Forsett has earned RB2 treatment in PPR and is a high-end flex option in standard leagues.

Primarily due to protection woes removing dimensions from their offense, Atlanta’s passing attack has taken a major step back the past two weeks. Matt Ryan threw two touchdown passes combined in Weeks 5-6. Change-of-pace back Antone Smith caught both, doing most of the work himself. The smartest fantasy course of action is to treat Ryan as a borderline QB1 going forward, particularly with Julio Jones reportedly playing through another bothersome foot injury. Although Baltimore has given up a lot of passing yards this season, only the Lions have allowed fewer touchdown passes (6), and the Ravens’ pass-rush foursome of Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee, and Haloti Ngata figures to have its way with Atlanta’s undermanned offensive line. I think this could prove a long day for Ryan. … Ryan’s target distribution on the season: Julio 69; Roddy White 39; Devin Hester and Levine Toilolo 20; Devonta Freeman 18; Harry Douglas 17; Steven Jackson 14; Antone Smith 12; Jacquizz Rodgers 10. … I entered this season confident in a bounce-back year from White after he finished 2013 with a bang. Instead, White has been an on-field liability for the Falcons, dropping three passes over the past three weeks, doing next to nothing after the catch and managing a 51.4 catch rate, a bottom-ten mark among NFL receivers who’ve played at least half of their team’s snaps. It’s worth noting Jeremy Maclin, Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith, and Michael Floyd all have worse catch percentages. There’s time for Roddy to pick it up, but he’s just a WR3 option until further notice.

Julio’s foot woes are a Week 7 concern, as is top Ravens CB Jimmy Smith‘s likely shadow coverage. I wouldn’t FanDuel Jones this week, but I also wouldn’t consider benching him in a season-long league. In spite of the injury, Julio played 91% of Atlanta’s Week 6 snaps and led the team with 12 targets. The centerpiece of OC Dirk Koetter‘s offense, Jones has 28 targets over the past two weeks. … With Douglas (hamstring) on the shelf, Hester has spent the last two games as the Falcons’ No. 3 receiver. He’s managed three catches on five combined targets for 39 yards. Hester only has value in return-yardage leagues. Douglas is tentatively due back next week. … The nominal leader in a four-way RBBC that also involves Jacquizz Rodgers, Antone Smith, and Devonta Freeman, S-Jax has faded into a touchdown-dependent flex option. 30th in fantasy running back scoring, 31-year-old S-Jax will take on a Ravens defense limiting opposing running backs to 477 yards and just two TDs on 121 carries (3.94 YPC). … Rodgers and Freeman are rotating passing-down backs who both rank outside the top 50 in running back points. Neither has re-draft value. … Smith housed another catch-and-run TD from a long distance in last week’s loss to the Bears. He still only played 21% of Atlanta’s snaps, handling six touches. Until the Falcons begin giving Smith double-digit touches per game, he will be a dart-throw RB3/flex at risk of weekly goose eggs.

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Falcons 20

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $500,000 Fantasy Football league for Week 7’s games. It’s only $10 to join and first prize is $40,000. Starts Sunday, October 19th at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.

Tennessee @ Washington

Kirk Cousins‘ turnovers hurt the Redskins’ on-field product, but are less of a concern in standard fantasy leagues, where owners are typically only penalized one point for an interception. Although Cousins threw three picks in last Sunday’s loss to Arizona, he finished as a top-nine fantasy quarterback for the week on the strength of 354 yards and two touchdowns. Cousins has thrown multiple TD passes in 4-of-5 appearances this season, and is averaging nearly 39 pass attempts per start. With pass-happy coach Jay Gruden allowing Cousins to be a gunslinger, he offers plenty of weekly upside. Tennessee ranks 18th versus the pass, has allowed the seventh most touchdown passes (11) in football, and is permitting the 14th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. If your league doesn’t penalize too heavily for picks, Cousins should stay on your QB1 streamer radar. … Cousins’ target distribution with Jordan Reed back in the lineup last week: Reed 11; Andre Roberts 9; Pierre Garcon 6; DeSean Jackson 5; Alfred Morris 3; Niles Paul and Roy Helu 2. … Fantasy owners saw everything they needed from Reed in his Week 6 return from a hamstring tear. The dynamic sophomore led Washington in targets, registered an 8-92 line, and played 57% of Washington’s snaps, running a pass route on 81% of his plays, per PFF. Second tight end Paul played 46% of the snaps, running a route on only 43% and seeing two targets. Back in the saddle as Washington’s go-to receiving tight end, Reed should be fired up as a confident TE1 against a Tennessee defense allowing the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Gruden’s usage of D-Jax remains impressive. Not only did Jackson whip Patrick Peterson for a 64-yard touchdown in Week 6, he gained 42 yards on a screen play and had a rushing attempt, gaining five yards. Being fed the football, Jackson is the No. 8 overall fantasy wideout over the past three weeks. He’s an every-week WR2. … The targets have been there for Garcon — he leads Washington with 47 on the season — but the patterns he runs are lower percentage than Jackson, and Garcon was on a milk carton for most of last week’s loss to Arizona before a late-game five-yard score. I do like Garcon as a WR3 this week against up-and-down Titans RCB Blidi Wreh-Wilson. … Although Roberts has been a consistent part of Gruden’s passing attack to this point, his usage may begin to dwindle as the Skins employ more two-tight end formations with Reed back healthy, and fewer three-receiver sets. Held under 60 yards in every game this year, Roberts is a WR4/5. … Game flow always has a major impact on Morris’ fantasy output. He loses snaps and touches to passing-game maven Helu whenever Washington falls behind. It’s a good bet that the Redskins will at very least be competitive in this game, if not play with a lead. Vegas has the Skins as 5.5-point favorites at home. Facing a Titans defense permitting an average of 113 rushing yards per game to opposing tailbacks as well as the third most rushing TDs in the league (6), Morris should emerge from Week 7 with an RB1-caliber day. I think he’s worth a look this week in FanDuel tournaments. Most people will probably be afraid to start him.

Making his NFL starting debut, Titans second-round pick Bishop Sankey got off to a slow start with 12 yards on seven first-half carries in last week’s win over Jacksonville. Picking it up in the final two quarters, Sankey went 11-49 after the break and caught his lone target for a gain of seven. He played 29 snaps to Dexter McCluster‘s 16 and Leon Washington‘s 12. Jackie Battle did vulture a goal-line touchdown. Although Sankey can be an exciting back when the Titans’ blocking gives him running room, he isn’t really a chain-moving workhorse, and is being replaced both on passing downs and in deep scoring position. I think the arrow is still pointing up on Sankey, but he has a tough Week 7 date with a Washington defense that’s held opposing running backs to 476 yards and just one touchdown on 138 carries (3.45 YPC), while allowing the third fewest fantasy points to the position. A flex play, Sankey could ascend to legitimate RB2 stock in Week 8 versus the Texans if he runs well on Redskins DC Jim Haslett‘s group. … With Shonn Greene (hamstring) slated to miss another game, McCluster, Washington, and Battle all figure to play similar roles to last week. I don’t see any of the three as worthy of roster spots in 12- or even 14-team leagues. … Being asked to manage games by coach Ken Whisenhunt, Charlie Whitehurst is slated for one more start with Jake Locker (hand) still on the mend. Whitehurst’s stats through two 2014 starts are 29-of-51 passing (56.9%) for 410 yards with one touchdown, one interception, six sacks taken, and two fumbles. I’d rather stream the Redskins’ fantasy defense than trust Whitehurst in a two-quarterback league.

Whitehurst’s target distribution on the season: Delanie Walker 18; Kendall Wright 13; Justin Hunter 12; Nate Washington 9; McCluster 7; Sankey 4; Leon Washington 3; Chase Coffman 2; Greene 1. … Hunter’s outlook is unchanged from last week, when he managed a 3-77-0 line on five targets against the leaky Jaguars secondary. The Redskins’ back end similarly has holes, but whether Whitehurst will connect with Hunter downfield is an entirely different story. Despite increased playing time, Hunter remains a boom-or-bust weekly WR3 option. … Wright owners felt the effect of journeyman backup quarterback play last week. After totaling 90 yards with two touchdowns in Week 5 against the Browns, Wright was targeted once by Whitehurst against Jacksonville, finishing with six yards. Undersized and not a true red-zone presence, Wright needs volume to pay off as a fantasy start. He may or may not get it with Whitehurst under center. Wright is a dicey, low-floor WR3 play. … Walker has been the steadiest Titans pass catcher all season, recording stat lines of 5-84-1, 4-47-0, and 3-57-0 in Whitehurst’s three appearances. The Redskins allow the tenth most fantasy points to tight ends, but Walker’s upside will stay capped until Locker returns. He’s an uninspiring TE1 play this week.

Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Titans 17

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Seattle @ St. Louis

After playing arguably his career-worst game in last Sunday’s loss to Dallas, expect Russell Wilson to get back on track at the Edward Jones Dome, where Colin Kaepernick lit up St. Louis for 380 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns last Monday night. The pathetic Rams have just one sack through five games and are consistently prone to breakdowns in the back end, where theoretical top corner Janoris Jenkins looks like he’s forgotten how to cover. Still a top-nine fantasy quarterback scorer on the season, Wilson is a high-ceiling QB1 playing indoors against a bad defense. … Wilson’s target distribution on the year: Percy Harvin 26; Doug Baldwin 24; Jermaine Kearse 19; Marshawn Lynch 18; Luke Willson 11; Bryan Walters 10; injured Zach Miller 7; Ricardo Lockette 6; Robert Turbin 3. … After having three touchdowns negated by penalties in Week 5, Harvin hit rock bottom against the Cowboys, literally generating -1 total yards on six offensive touches. Harvin’s box scores have frustrated, but I don’t think he should suddenly be benched in fantasy leagues. Keep in mind Wilson managed 126 passing yards versus Dallas, so none of Seattle’s pass catchers had a big week. Harvin owners should hope the Rams stick Jenkins on him in this game. Jenkins has been toasted for four touchdowns over the past three weeks. … A downgrade from Golden Tate in the “X” role of OC Darrell Bevell‘s offense, Baldwin is just barely averaging three catches for 37 yards per game. He hasn’t hit pay dirt all year. The Rams’ secondary deficiencies suggest this might be the week Baldwin gets on track, but that’s a hail-mary proposition. He’s a fantasy WR5.

Theoretically a red-zone weapon and touchdown scorer in Seattle’s offense, Kearse has one TD on the season and gets less usage between the 20s than Baldwin. If Kearse has a big day at St. Louis, nothing in his performance or role from Weeks 1-6 indicated it was coming. … Miller fill-in Willson failed to deliver (2-11-0) in last week’s meeting with a Dallas defense allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. The Rams have allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to Willson’s position. … Probably the biggest mistake playcaller Bevell made against the Cowboys was getting Lynch only ten rushing attempts. The fallout was Dallas dominating time of possession 38:22. Bevell made a similar mistake in a late-October game against the Rams last year, giving Lynch only eight carries. The Seahawks escaped with a 14-9 victory, but Bevell’s playcalling very nearly cost them the game. The next week, Bevell atoned by giving Lynch 25 touches in a win over the Bucs. Bet on Bevell taking a similar approach this week against St. Louis’ bottom-seven run defense. Confidently fire up Lynch as a top-shelf RB1.

I personally would be reluctant to start Austin Davis in any format, but Seattle’s defense has shown enough vulnerability the past four weeks for Davis to at least be in the two-quarterback-league conversation. Over their last four games, the Seahawks have been touched up by Kirk Cousins, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo for a combined 101-of-154 passing (65.6%), 1,120 yards (7.27 YPA), and a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio. With Seattle struggling to generate edge pressure, those quarterbacks were only sacked four combined times. Just keep in mind Davis is arguably a worse passer than all four of those QBs. He isn’t a streamer option. … Davis’ target distribution in his first season as an NFL starter: Jared Cook 40; Brian Quick 30; Kenny Britt 21; Austin Pettis 18; Lance Kendricks 17; Benny Cunningham and Zac Stacy 15; Tavon Austin 10; Chris Givens 6; Stedman Bailey 3. … A concern for Quick owners this week was the Seahawks’ Week 6 usage of Richard Sherman as a shadow cornerback. After RCB Byron Maxwell went down with a calf strain, Seattle allowed Sherman to travel with Dez Bryant, holding Dallas’ top wideout to four catches for 63 scoreless yards. Maxwell isn’t going to play this week, and Dez is better than Quick. I own Quick on two teams and won’t be starting him in Week 7.

Cook has pretty clearly emerged as the focal point of St. Louis’ passing game. He’s the team leader in targets on the season, and has one more reception than Quick. The Seahawks’ primary vulnerability in the secondary is against tight ends, to whom they allow the third most fantasy points in the league. (Only Cincinnati and Dallas give up more.) Cook lacks physicality to be a big-time red-zone threat and will probably never be a high-volume TD scorer, but he makes some sense as a PPR streamer. Cook has at least eight targets in four of the Rams’ first five games. … Britt, Austin, Kendricks, Pettis, and Bailey are complementary role players in a weak passing offense. None of them has enough fantasy value to be worth owning in 12-team leagues. Britt is a low-ceiling WR5. … Coach Jeff Fisher told reporters following last Monday night’s loss to San Francisco that the Rams are committed to a three-man RBBC. (In other news, the 1-4 Rams love losing.) This will render Stacy, Cunningham, and rookie Tre Mason unplayable in fantasy leagues for the foreseeable future. None of the three St. Louis backs will be able to establish an in-game rhythm while shuttling in and out of the lineup, and no member of the backfield will be assured of double-digit touches in a given week. Mason did add a spark off the bench against the Rams, but finished with six touches and only played nine snaps. He pass blocked twice and gave up a sack.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 14

1:00PM ET Games

Atlanta @ Baltimore

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Falcons 20

Tennessee @ Washington

Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Titans 17

Seattle @ St. Louis

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 14

Cleveland @ Jacksonville

The Browns’ formula is straightforward and admirable. They run the football with extreme volume — second in the NFL in per-game rushing attempts — and challenge defenses vertically. It’s also a recipe for success against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 19th against the run and has allowed a league-high 32 pass plays of 20-plus yards. On paper, this is a game in which the upstart Browns should move the ball with ease. … Since the Browns returned from their Week 4 bye, Ben Tate has handled 48 touches and played 93 snaps. Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West have combined for 24 touches amongst 44 snaps. West was a healthy scratch last week. The obvious 1A back in the NFL’s third-ranked rushing offense, Tate is a legitimate RB1 for as long as his body cooperates. On the season, Jacksonville has allowed 643 yards and five touchdowns on 160 carries (4.02 YPC) to opposing running backs. The per-carry efficiency isn’t quite ideal, but this is a fine matchup for Tate. … Although Crowell torched Pittsburgh for an 11-77-1 rushing line last week, he fumbled twice, losing one. It’s fair to wonder if Crowell’s shaky ball security could earn West more playing time, at the undrafted rookie’s expense. The clear change-up to Tate’s feature back, Crowell is a boom-or-bust flex play. He’s still only been targeted once in the passing game all season and is not trusted to pass protect Brian Hoyer. … After registering a 3-102-1 stat line on a team-high five targets against the Steelers, suddenly-hot Jordan Cameron gets another cupcake matchup against the Jags, who allow the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. Since resting his previously balky shoulder during Cleveland’s Week 4 bye, Cameron has played 93% of the Browns’ offensive snaps. He’s an upside TE1 with an arrow pointing up.

Through nine career NFL starts, Hoyer’s stats stand at 164-of-275 passing (59.6%) for 2,039 yards (7.41 YPA) with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. His 2014 TD-to-INT ratio is 7:1. Widely viewed as a short-term stopgap entering the season, Hoyer has solidified Cleveland’s starting quarterback job and then some by playing mistake-free football and exposing defenses at the intermediate and vertical levels. In last week’s floor-wiping of the Steelers, Pro Football Focus charted Hoyer as 5-of-6 passing for 179 yards and a touchdown on throws of 20-plus yards. Although Cleveland’s run-heavy philosophy caps his week-to-week ceiling, Hoyer is entrenched as a two-quarterback-league starter against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th versus the pass with a 12:1 TD-to-INT ratio against. The Jags allow opposing passers to complete 68.7% of their throws, the second highest clip in the AFC. … Hoyer’s target distribution on the season: Andrew Hawkins 41; Miles Austin 26; Taylor Gabriel 22; Cameron 20; Travis Benjamin 13; Jim Dray 9; Gary Barnidge 6; West 4; Tate 2; Crowell 1. … Why did the Browns’ receivers do nothing in last week’s win over the Steelers? They didn’t have to. Hoyer only completed eight passes in the 31-10 romp. Hawkins hasn’t suddenly vanished from the PPR discussion, but Cameron’s return to health and Cleveland’s low-volume passing attack certainly don’t help. It makes sense to downgrade Hawkins to a WR4 until he picks it back up.

It’s fair to wonder if the light flipped on for Cleveland’s defense against Pittsburgh. Mike Pettine is one of the NFL’s top defensive minds, and his unit had badly underachieved in its first four games. Pettine’s 2013 Bills also got off to a slow start before rallying to finish top ten in total defense and second in the league in sacks. Don’t think this is a cupcake matchup for Blake Bortles, whose porous offensive line and conservative playcalling continue to curb his fantasy potential. Bortles was sacked six times by the lowly Titans last week. The Jaguars threw a whopping 11 screen passes, gaining 45 yards. Jacksonville’s coaching staff clearly does not trust the O-Line, and for good reason. Until that gets figured out — and it may not — Bortles will remain a borderline two-quarterback-league starter. … Bortles’ Weeks 3-6 target distribution: Allen Robinson 35; Cecil Shorts 28; Allen Hurns 23; Clay Harbor 16; Denard Robinson 9; Jordan Todman 8; Mike Brown 5; Toby Gerhart 3; Marqise Lee and Ace Sanders 2; Storm Johnson 1. … With at least five catches in four straight games, Robinson has established himself as a reliable WR3 in PPR leagues. Robinson’s catches are almost all coming at or around the line of scrimmage, however, and he’s yet to make a non-garbage-time downfield reception on the year. I do suspect a breakout week is on the horizon based on the volume Robinson is seeing in addition to his athleticism. As the Browns figure to stick top corner Joe Haden on Shorts in this game, look for Robinson to see lots of inconsistent RCB Buster Skrine.

Shaking off his troublesome hamstring for at least one week, Shorts reemerged as Jacksonville’s leading receiver in last Sunday’s loss to Tennessee. The Jags used Shorts to move the chains, targeting him a team-high 16 times. Shorts can be a PPR asset as long as his health holds up, but will stay in the lower-end WR3 range until he shows some ability to string together healthy games. I expect Haden to shadow Shorts on Sunday. … These were the Week 6 snap counts among Jags wideouts: Robinson 70, Shorts 64, Hurns 50, Lee 16, Sanders 5. … After an error-filled Week 5, Hurns followed up with another disaster in Nashville. He fell on a third-quarter route, leading to Bortles’ lone interception, and has now dropped three passes over his last five games. Out of a starting job, Hurns is safe to drop in 14- and 16-team leagues. He should begin losing snaps to more-talented Lee soon. … Coming off a 3-91-1 effort on four targets, Harbor gets a stiffer test against a Browns defense that ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Harbor is a crapshoot TE1 streamer. … The Jaguars’ O-Line shortcomings have a significant effect on the way OC Jedd Fisch calls plays. It showed up not only in the volume of Week 6 screen passes, but in how Jacksonville abandoned its run game. After managing 16 yards on nine first-half carries against the Titans, Storm Johnson had one rushing attempt in the final two quarters. In a close game (16-14 finish), Fisch dialed up just six run plays in the entire second half. The Browns’ bottom-three run defense is normally worth attacking, but the Jaguars’ deep RBBC is a fantasy black hole. Shoelace Robinson is frequently involved as a change-of-pace back, Todman siphons passing-down snaps, and Toby Gerhart (foot) will be back soon. Robinson and Johnson shared first-team practice reps evenly this week. With no run-game alleys to exploit and no faith from Fisch in his own ground game, this is a fantasy situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Browns 23, Jaguars 20

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

Andrew Luck‘s stats over his last 16 regular season games: 400-of-644 passing (62.1%) for 4,463 yards with a 33:13 TD-to-INT ratio and four more touchdowns on scrambles. He’s the No. 1 overall fantasy quarterback through six weeks and is deserving of just as much MVP discussion as Philip Rivers. With an entire team on his back, Luck is dominating week in and week out. After opening the season playing stout pass defense, Cincinnati has been exposed by previously-struggling Tom Brady and Cam Newton the past two weeks for a combined 52-of-81 passing (64.2%) for 576 yards (7.11 YPA) and a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Newton added 17-107-1 on the ground against the Bengals. Luck is a scrambling threat, as well. … Continuing to battle injuries at linebacker while washed-up NT Domata Peko continually gets blown off the ball, the Bengals’ bottom-four run defense has been pounded by enemy running backs for 506 yards and four touchdowns on 111 carries (4.56 YPC). Only the Browns, Cowboys, and Panthers are permitting a higher per-rush average. As Ahmad Bradshaw tends to get more playing time and touches in competitive games, he’s set up for a busy week in a game where the host Colts are only three-point favorites. Seventh among running backs in fantasy scoring, Bradshaw is an every-week RB2. … Trent Richardson remains a low-upside, TD-dependent flex option despite averaging 17 touches per game compared to Bradshaw’s 13.5. Richardson’s passing-game usage is sporadic and he’s averaging 3.23 YPC. I’ve been starting Richardson in one league for the past several weeks and holding my breath. The plus matchup does put Richardson in the top-25 running back conversation for Week 7.

Luck’s Weeks 1-6 target distribution: T.Y. Hilton 58; Reggie Wayne 54; Hakeem Nicks 31; Bradshaw and Dwayne Allen 27; Coby Fleener 25; T-Rich 19; Donte Moncrief 9; Jack Doyle 8. … Hilton is a player I wish I would’ve been higher on entering the season. Already among the NFL’s top young deep threats, Hilton is now being fed the football at all three levels by OC Pep Hamilton, whose playcalling and snap distribution have improved significantly in his second year as playcaller. A similar-looking Bengals secondary held Hilton to 2-7-0 in Week 14 last year, but in 2014 Hilton has more than earned every-week-starter treatment. He’s on pace for 107 catches and over 1,600 yards. Hilton is one of the most explosive route runners in the game today. … While Hilton will run most of his patterns at 36-year-old LCB Terence Newman and 31-year-old RCB Pacman Jones, Wayne will have to contend with stingy slot corner Leon Hall inside the numbers. Wayne gets too much usage to be ignored in PPR leagues, but he’s a borderline starter in standard formats. Wayne has one touchdown through six games, and just three over his last 15 outings, including playoffs. … Fleener and Allen both have attractive Week 7 matchups, squaring off with a Bengals defense that has surrendered an AFC-high 40 receptions and NFL-most 473 yards to tight ends, despite an early-season bye. Fleener is capable of delivering a red-zone score every now and then, but Allen is always the superior bet. Although Allen did not hit pay dirt in last Thursday’s win over Houston, his seven targets were a season high. Allen is a low-end TE1. Fleener is worth a look as a streamer. … The deterioration of Hakeem Nicks reminds of old Bucs WR Michael Clay ton. Every year you wonder if he’ll “get it back,” but it never happens. At this stage of his career, it’s tough to watch Nicks in confined areas with the ball in his hands. He can barely move.

Sunday’s Bengals-Colts game has an aggressive 49.5-point over-under, tied for second highest of Week 7. Cincinnati is most likely to have offensive success on the ground, where Indianapolis has surrendered 446 yards and six touchdowns on 91 rushing attempts (4.90 YPC) to opposing running backs over its last five games. Arian Foster gashed the Colts for 20-109-2 two Thursday nights ago. Spiking his YPC average to 4.47 on the season, Giovani Bernard busted an 89-yard touchdown run in last week’s tie with Carolina, breaking a tackle up the middle and taking it to the house. Gio has handled at least 15 touches in every game this season and is an RB1 in this favorable matchup. … Bernard missed time with a shoulder injury against the Panthers, allowing Jeremy Hill to work in for 12 touches, his second highest total of the season. Hill scored on a three-yard fourth-quarter carry, performing an Icky Shuffle afterwards, and had an additional 24-yard TD run called back. Hill remains a boom-or-bust weekly flex option. Although the Colts would very likely have a hard time slowing down Hill were he to handle significant carries, Hill’s playing time will be limited if Luck pours points on the Bengals and forces them to play from behind.

Colts coach Chuck Pagano‘s defense has played the pass more stoutly than the run in 2014. Indy ranks 14th in pass defense, has permitted only eight passing TDs through six games, ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks (17), and has surrendered the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Still without alpha-receiver A.J. Green, Andy Dalton is a mid-range QB2. Dalton ranks 28th in pass attempts per game and 18th in passing yards. He has a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio through five games. … Dalton’s target distribution with Green out of the lineup last week: Mohamed Sanu 14; Jermaine Gresham 7; Bernard, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Brandon Tate 5; Hill 4; James Wright 1. … Bengals interim No. 1 receiver Sanu moves all around the formation and should avoid Colts RCB Vontae Davis‘ coverage for most of this contest. Not only did Sanu go 10-120-1 with Green inactive last week, he registered a 3-84-1 receiving line when Green (toe) missed all but six snaps against the Falcons in Week 2. So we have a two-game sample size of OC Hue Jackson utilizing Sanu in a highly productive manner when Green’s been on the shelf. Sanu is pushing for WR2 value in Week 7, and with Marvin Jones (foot) on I.R. at very least will be Cincinnati’s No. 2 receiver the rest of the way. … Gresham secured 6-of-7 targets for 68 scoreless yards in Week 6 and still hasn’t scored a touchdown on the year. The Colts allow the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends, but Gresham has consistently disappointed as a streamer option.

Score Prediction: Colts 28, Bengals 23

Minnesota @ Buffalo

Teddy Bridgewater is an exciting prospect and may finally give Minnesota the franchise quarterback it’s lacked since Daunte Culpepper‘s demise, but line play is a significant roadblock for his fantasy outlook. Sacked eight times by Detroit in Week 6, constantly-hurried Bridgewater threw three picks, fumbled once, and failed to lead a scoring drive before Blair Walsh‘s garbage-time field goal. The matchup gets no easier for young Teddy in Week 7 on the road against a Bills defense that ranks second in sacks (19) and can keep quarterbacks uncomfortable via one of the NFL’s most ferocious front fours. There will be weeks when Bridgewater is worth streaming. Like last week, this isn’t one. … Fantasy owners stashing Jerick McKinnon may have struck going-forward gold. Supplanting fullbackish plodder Matt Asiata as the Vikings’ lead back in Week 6, McKinnon out-touched Asiata 17:3 and out-snapped him 48:15. Ideally, however, owners will wait one more week to see whether this is indeed a permanent changing of the guard. McKinnon’s pass-protection struggles continued in last week’s loss to Detroit, and Buffalo’s league-best run defense has held opposing running backs to 342 yards on 126 carries (2.71 YPC). The Bills still haven’t allowed a rushing TD in 2014. The Vikings are sure to have trouble creating lanes on the ground. It certainly doesn’t help that coach Mike Zimmer downplayed the idea that McKinnon has bypassed Asiata this week, discouragingly stating Asiata “deserves more touches.” … As for Asiata, it’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings distribute work in goal-line settings if McKinnon has indeed taken over as lead back. Asiata also may become a designated pass protector if McKinnon doesn’t improve in that area soon. I’d feel fine dropping Asiata in 10- and 12-teamers, but would give him one more week on 14-team-league benches.

Bridgewater’s target distribution since he replaced Matt Cassel in Week 3: Jarius Wright and Greg Jennings 16; Cordarrelle Patterson 15; McKinnon 14; Asiata 10; Chase Ford 9. … As the Vikings seem unlikely to have much offensive success in Buffalo, it would be difficult to confidently invest fantasy starts in any member of their pass-catching corps. Buffalo’s back end can be exposed — as Tom Brady showed last week — but a rookie signal caller exposing it without protection would be a difficult task. … Scoreless since Week 1 and yet to hit 75 yards in any game this season, Jennings isn’t roster worthy in 10- or 12-team leagues. … Wright is Minnesota’s third receiver. Although he shredded the Falcons’ defense in Week 4 on plays schemed by OC Norv Turner, Wright is a 65% player on offense and has managed receiving lines of 3-27-0 and 4-17-0 since. He’s a fantasy WR5. … Called out publicly by coach Mike Zimmer following last week’s loss to the Lions, Patterson has now been a fantasy non-factor in five straight weeks. Turner and Zimmer seem to have no interest in manufacturing plays for Patterson. He’s got to get open on his own, which isn’t happening, and Bridgewater has to connect, which also hasn’t happened. Patterson is just a WR4. … Ford led Minnesota’s tight ends and wide receivers in Week 6 catches (4) and yards (37). The Bills are 18th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. You’d have to be pretty desperate to stream Ford, who is filling in for injured Kyle Rudolph.

Trending toward the fantasy-bust zone, C.J. Spiller played just 12-of-69 snaps (17.4%) in last week’s loss to New England, seeing a year low in carries (6) — one fewer than Anthony Dixon‘s seven. An early-game deficit surely had something to do with Spiller’s reduced role, but it’s also conceivable that the Bills’ coaching staff would prefer to use Spiller sparingly. An ineffective misfit for OC Nathaniel Hackett‘s more power-run-oriented offense, Spiller has 112 scoreless yards on 41 carries (2.73 YPC) over his last four games. Even against a weak Minnesota run defense, Spiller is a low-end flex/RB3 until his usage picks up. And with the way things are going, it may not. … Over the past three weeks, the Vikings have coughed up 368 yards and four touchdowns on 71 carries (5.18 YPC). They’ve been victimized for rejuvenation games by both Eddie Lacy and Joique Bell. With the most stable role in Buffalo’s backfield and an average of over 14 touches a game the past five weeks, Fred Jackson should be fired up as an RB2 in PPR and solid flex option in standard leagues. Kyle Orton loves checking down to Jackson, who is tied for the team lead with 15 targets in Orton’s two 2014 starts. … Orton has played well enough to earn a two-quarterback-league start against the Vikings, combining to complete 54-of-81 throws (66.7%) for 607 yards (7.49 YPA) with a 3:2 TD-to-INT ratio in Weeks 5-6. He did that against Detroit and New England, two top-three pass defenses. The Vikings rank sixth in pass defense, but have allowed 10 touchdown passes in six games and a 66.0% completion rate to opposing passers.

Orton’s target distribution through two starts as a Bill: Sammy Watkins, F-Jax, and Scott Chandler 15; Robert Woods 14; Chris Hogan 8; Spiller 5; Marquise Goodwin and Chris Gragg 1. … Whereas Orton locked in on Watkins (12 targets) in his first start, the journeyman passer spread the ball around in last week’s loss to New England, targeting four different players at least six times but Watkins on only three occasions. Is Chandler (6-105) suddenly a fantasy starter? Is Hogan (5-72-1)? Is Woods (7-78-1)? I’d lean toward answering no on all three. We’ll find out more this week in a matchup where Buffalo should have passing-game success. … Darrelle Revis‘ sticky coverage was largely to blame for Watkins’ slow Week 6 game. Revis held Watkins to 2-27-0, and prevented him from generating any yards after catch. Running most of his routes at left cornerbacks, Watkins has a much better Week 7 matchup with up-and-down Vikings LCB Josh Robinson, who’s allowed a touchdown pass in two of his last three games. I expect Watkins to retake the Bills’ target lead Sunday. He’s worth using as a fantasy WR3. … Possession receivers Woods and Hogan will take on RCB Xavier Rhodes and slot CB Captain Munnerlyn, respectively. Although Woods and Hogan were both productive last week, it’s hard to get behind either as a Week 7 fantasy start. … As for Chandler, the Vikings are 27th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Before last week’s 105-yard shocker, Chandler had gone 18 games without clearing 75 yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since last October.

Score Prediction: Bills 21, Vikings 17

Miami @ Chicago

With Knowshon Moreno (ACL) out of the picture for good, Lamar Miller should be viewed as a top-12 fantasy running back looking forward. Although the Dolphins seem to have a weekly lid of 15 carries on Miller, he is compensating with pass-game involvement and sheer efficiency. An ideal fit for new OC Bill Lazor‘s space-creating rushing attack, Miller has piled up 225 yards and three touchdowns on 41 runs (5.49 YPC) over his last three games, adding nine receptions for 67 yards. Quietly but surely, the Bears’ run defense has stiffened over the past three weeks, holding Green Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta tailbacks to a combined 149 yards on 47 carries (3.17 YPC). Chicago’s defense isn’t suddenly one to fear, but may not be the cake matchup it opened the season as. Miller is an every-week RB1/2, but his matchup is still worth examining. All four of Miller’s touchdowns this season have come inside the opposing ten-yard line. The Dolphins aren’t afraid to feature him in scoring position. … If the Fins maintain their carry cap on Miller, another back will be in the mix for weekly rushing attempts, probably in the 7-10 range. Daniel Thomas has played well in his 2014 opportunities, but was a healthy scratch in Week 6. UDFA Damien Williams played four snaps, but may have only been active over Thomas because of his special teams value. My guess is Thomas will be second in line for carries, but I wouldn’t rule out Williams. Both are worth looks as speculative bench stashes in deeper leagues.

Ryan Tannehill‘s Week 6 numbers look respectable on the stat sheet — he finished with 293 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns — but Tannehill should’ve had a third interception if not for a drop by Packers CB Davon House, and didn’t begin firing strikes until the second half with RCB Sam Shields (knee) and LCB Tramon Williams (ankle) both on the shelf. Tannehill’s increased rushing production bodes well for his two-quarterback-league viability, but he’s not much of a streamer at Soldier Field. The 17th-ranked Bears pass defense ranks third in the NFL in interceptions (8), tied for seventh in sacks (15), and 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. … Tannehill’s target distribution this season: Mike Wallace 44; Brian Hartline 28; Charles Clay 27; Jarvis Landry 26; Miller 20; Brandon Gibson 13; Rishard Matthews 8; Moreno 1. … At just under nine targets per week, Wallace is a top-ten wideout in fantasy points per game. That’s WR1 territory. No longer a boom-or-bust weekly proposition as he was under ex-OC Mike Sherman, Wallace has at least 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in every game this season. There is nothing imposing about Chicago’s secondary … At the opposite end of the spectrum is Hartline, a low-volume role player on the perimeter of Lazor’s offense. Fantasy’s No. 78 overall wideout, Hartline should’ve been dropped in 14-team leagues weeks ago. … Rookie slot man Landry broke out for 6-75-1 on eight targets in last week’s loss to Green Bay. He’s trending upward, but is still only a WR4 with fellow slot man Gibson due back from injury. … The Bears are 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Aim higher than Clay, whose receiving role has been scaled back considerably under Lazor.

Although the Dolphins rank “No. 8” in the NFL in pass defense, that statistic is skewed by facing E.J. Manuel, Derek Carr, Alex Smith, and then-struggling Tom Brady in their first four games. After Aaron Rodgers got through with them in Week 6, Green Bay’s surgical signal caller had poured 263 yards and three touchdowns on DC Kevin Coyle‘s group. Miami hung tough with Green Bay and generally played Rodgers well, but this clearly isn’t the shutdown pass defense its pre-Week 6 stats suggest. On pace for a career-high 35 touchdown passes and averaging nearly 280 passing yards per game, No. 4 overall fantasy quarterback Jay Cutler is an every-week QB1. … Cutler’s Weeks 1-6 target distribution: Matt Forte 55; Martellus Bennett 50; Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall 46; Santonio Holmes 13; Josh Morgan 8. … The stout Dolphins defensive front has limited enemy running backs to 426 yards on 116 yards (3.67 YPC) this season, and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 3. Although this is a tough matchup for Forte on the ground, his passing-game usage dramatically raises his floor. Forte leads the NFL in receptions (46) and is on pace to catch 123, which would comfortably eclipse Larry Centers’ running back record, established in 1995. Through six weeks, Forte is on pace for 123-1,003-3 in the passing game alone.

Usually a stationary LCB, Brent Grimes shadowed Jordy Nelson for much of last week’s game. The results weren’t pretty as Nelson went 9-107-1 despite failing to reel in seven of his 16 targets and dropping a pass. Although he hasn’t been badly burned deep downfield much this year, Grimes is giving up a lot of catches. His presence isn’t a worrisome concern for Chicago’s wide receivers. … Jeffery has at least 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four straight games. An every-week WR1, Jeffery will spend most of this game in Grimes and RCB Cortland Finnegan‘s coverage. Finnegan had his worst game of the season against Green Bay, getting twisted, turned, and burned repeatedly by rookie Davante Adams. … Fantasy’s most obvious buy-low target after a three-week stretch of slow yardage games, Marshall rebounded for 6-113 in last week’s torching of Atlanta. This is a “revenge game” for Marshall, taking on the same team that regrettably traded him away for two third-round picks following the 2011 season. He’s an easy WR1 and worth a serious look on FanDuel. … Bennett’s early-season hot run has proven a bit of a mirage, dipping to receiving lines of 3-17-0 and 4-52-0 over his last two games. He hasn’t hit pay dirt since Week 3. The Dolphins are 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Jeffery and Marshall over their early-season injuries, Bennett is settling back in as a low-end TE1.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Dolphins 20

New Orleans @ Detroit

Vegas initially installed Saints-Lions with the highest over-under of Week 7, at 51.5 points. While both of these teams historically play high-octane offense, that hasn’t necessarily been the case this season. The over-under has since dipped to 49. … Playing at a genuinely elite level, Lions rookie DC Teryl Austin‘s No. 1 pass defense has held enemy quarterbacks to a combined 126-of-207 passing for 1,311 yards (6.33 YPA) and a 5:7 TD-to-INT ratio. Drew Brees owners will have to hope coach Sean Payton drew up something special during New Orleans’ Week 6 bye. Brees is expected to be without Jimmy Graham (shoulder) and is much less effective in road games. He’s a fantasy QB1, but I’d avoid Brees in daily leagues this week. … Brees’ 2014 target distribution: Graham 47; Brandin Cooks 41; Marques Colston 29; Pierre Thomas 25; Kenny Stills 15; Robert Meachem 13; Travaris Cadet and Ben Watson 12; Josh Hill 8; Khiry Robinson 6; Mark Ingram 5; Joe Morgan 3. … It’s been speculated that the Saints might lean on Colston more if Graham does not play, but Payton’s to-date passing play calls suggest Cooks is likelier to take over as the Saints’ featured passing-game weapon. On top of his 41 targets, Cooks has handled five rushing attempts and is a good bet for upwards of ten touches at Detroit. Cooks is playing 75% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps. … Colston’s 72% snap rate figures to rise if Graham is inactive, and it’s logical to expect him to take on more pass-game responsibilities. Colston does most of his damage inside the numbers, running similar routes to Graham. Colston is a good bet to finish second on New Orleans in targets this week. Despite a somewhat sluggish start for the second straight year, Colston is a sensible WR2/3 play.

Thursday Night Update: Although national reporters insist Graham is not expected to play against the Lions, he did return to practice on a limited basis Thursday. I’ll put another update in this space after letting the rest of the week play out, but for now I am approaching Saints-Lions as if Graham won’t be active. I do think his ability to practice bodes well for Graham’s chances of returning in Week 8, which would be sooner than initially forecasted.

Hill and Watson are both worth looks as Week 7 streamers if Graham sits out, although Detroit is a middling 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Per Pro Football Focus, Hill has blocked on 66% of his 2014 snaps, while Watson has only blocked on 56%. Those numbers would seem to hint the Saints see Hill as more of a blocker than Watson, although Hill is a better athlete than 33-year-old Watson at this stage of their careers. Watson is the safer TE1 dart throw. With 4.66 speed and highly impressive vertical (36 1/2″) and broad jump (10’7″) numbers at 6-foot-5, 246, Hill would give the Saints a more Graham-like option. Hill is the riskier, if higher-ceiling Week 7 bet. … With Mark Ingram (hand) back, Khiry Robinson running well, Pierre Thomas coming off a season-best game, and Travaris Cadet siphoning snaps, New Orleans’ backfield will be tough to trust against a Lions run defense that’s held enemy running backs to 383 yards and three TDs on 118 carries (3.39 YPC) through six games. In a mailbag posted last week, ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett forecasted “frustration for fantasy football players” with Ingram returning, suggesting Ingram “could be eased back into the action” against Detroit after missing more than a month. When Ingram was healthy in Weeks 1-2, he averaged 14 touches per game to Thomas’ 9.5 and Robinson’s 7. Ideally, fantasy owners will wait a week to see how things shake out before investing in this multi-headed RBBC. If forced to choose between the foursome, I’d go with Thomas, simply because he seems to have the most stable role and is heavily involved in the passing game. Ingram is a risky, probably touchdown-dependent flex option.

I noticed Joique Bell getting dropped in a lot of leagues about two weeks ago, after a slow start and one missed game due to a concussion. Savvy fantasy owners snapped up Bell and started him against the Vikings in Week 6, where he piled up a season-high 20 touches and put Detroit’s offense on his back in the second half, finishing with 97 total yards and the game-sealing touchdown. Bell won’t get as much usage with Reggie Bush (ankle) returning this week, but when both backs are healthy Joique remains the favorite for early-down carries as well as goal-line work, and will mix into the passing game. Bell is a solid RB2/flex against a New Orleans defense that ranks 14th against the run and has allowed the tenth most fantasy points to running backs. Opposing RBs have tagged Saints DC Rob Ryan‘s defense for 501 yards and five touchdowns on 114 attempts (4.39 YPC). … Held out of last week’s victory as a precaution, Bush is expected to be at or near 100% for this “revenge game” against the team that drafted him in 2006. In the three games Bush has played start to finish this year, he’s averaged just over 14 touches. He’s a lower-end RB2 in PPR and a worthwhile flex play in standard leagues. … Seemingly lost without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford is the No. 16 overall fantasy quarterback over the past three weeks. He’s managed four touchdowns during that span despite plus matchups with the Jets, Vikings, and Bills. Until Megatron returns at full strength, Stafford can only be viewed as a borderline fantasy starter. Working in Stafford’s Week 7 favor is Ryan’s 25th-ranked pass defense, which has a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio and 64.6% completion rate against. The Saints are tied for the third fewest sacks (6) in football.

Stafford’s target distribution with Calvin either inactive or used as a decoy the past three weeks: Golden Tate 31; Eric Ebron 12; Reggie Bush 11; Corey Fuller 10; Joique and Jeremy Ross 7; Theo Riddick 6; Brandon Pettigrew 5; Megatron and Ryan Broyles 3; George Winn 2. … Fantasy owners should resist holding Tate’s Week 6 stat line against him. Although he managed a highly disappointing 44 yards on seven catches, Tate uncharacteristically dropped two passes and was still the focal point of OC Joe Lombardi‘s passing attack in Megatron’s absence, commanding a team-high 12 targets. As Tate runs most of his routes in the slot, he will avoid Saints top CB Keenan Lewis‘ coverage for most of this game, instead squaring off with burnable Patrick Robinson and Corey White. Keep rolling Tate out there. He’s a great bet for a bounce-back game. … The Lions’ main outside receivers with Megatron on the shelf have been 2013 sixth-round pick Fuller and special teamer Ross, which helps explain Stafford’s box-score duds. Fuller did see five targets last week, playing 74% of Detroit’s snaps. Behind Tate, Fuller remains the highest-ceiling dart throw in the Lions’ receiver corps. … Ebron’s target numbers are 4, 4, and 4 the past three games, translating to 3-34-1, 2-8-0, and 2-23-0 on the stat sheet. Even with Ebron (hamstring) not expected to play against the Saints, it isn’t as if he’s leaving behind some big “role” to fill. Despite their defensive woes, the Saints allow the second fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Avoid the Lions’ tight ends.

Score Prediction: Saints 24, Lions 21

Carolina @ Green Bay

Playcaller Mike Shula restored the option to Carolina’s Week 6 offense, and the results were an unequivocal success. While the Panthers continued to hemorrhage points and yards on defense, Cam Newton single-handedly kept his team in the game via season highs in all-purpose yards (391) and touchdowns (3), including a third-quarter 12-yard rushing score. Newton was quietly having his best NFL season as a passer leading into last week’s tie with Cincinnati. With his rushing opportunity restored, Newton won’t struggle for top-five going-forward stats with one of the NFL’s easiest rest-of-season quarterback schedules (Weeks 9-16: vs. NO, @ PHI, vs. ATL, @ MIN, @ NO, vs. TB, vs. CLE). Although Green Bay has played top-five pass defense this year, DC Dom Capers‘ unit is notorious for getting pasted by dual-threat quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson. … Cam’s target distribution on the year: Kelvin Benjamin 44; Greg Olsen 39; Jason Avant 27; Jerricho Cotchery 25; Philly Brown 12; Brenton Bersin 7; Jonathan Stewart 4. … Benjamin shook off his error-plagued Week 5 game to drop a 7-49-1 number on the Bengals, moving into the top ten among fantasy wideouts in scoring. Assuming he gets cleared from his Week 6 concussion, Benjamin will primarily do battle with Packers RCB Sam Shields in this game. Shields missed 25 snaps with a knee injury last week and stands 5-foot-11, 185 to Benjamin’s 6-foot-5, 240. … The primary beneficiary of Newton’s career-best passing year has been Olsen, who is currently fantasy’s No. 2 overall tight end behind only Julius Thomas. The Packers allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but Olsen has been matchup proof. He’s on pace for career highs in catches (88), yards (1,036), and touchdowns (14).

Thursday Night Update: The Panthers have outwardly projected confidence Benjamin will get medically cleared, but coach Ron Rivera acknowledged Thursday there’s a chance the powerful rookie wideout might miss Week 7. If Benjamin can’t go against the Packers, Olsen and Cotchery would see more targets. Avant, Brown, and Bersin would all play a few more snaps. Benjamin’s loss would deal a blow to Cam’s touchdown-throwing potential.

Averaging four catches for 53 scoreless yards in his five healthy games this season, Cotchery ordinarily serves a complementary, possession-receiver role in Carolina’s offense. Cotchery has an intriguing Week 7 matchup with hobbled Packers LCB Tramon Williams (ankle), and would become a sneaky WR3 play in 14-team leagues if Benjamin missed this game. … Note that the Panthers have begun incorporating athletic phenom TE Brandon Williams into their offense in each of the last two games. Williams played 15 snaps in Week 5 and 14 in Week 6, catching a 16-yard pass at Cincinnati. Roster Williams if he’s unowned in your Dynasty league. The 27-year-old former basketball player runs 4.56 at 6-foot-3, 248 with a freakish 10-foot-8 broad jump and 36-inch vertical. … The Panthers openly acknowledged that their run game was a non-factor in last week’s tie with Cincinnati, upping Newton’s usage to spark it. Darrin Reaves and Fozzy Whittaker combined for 40 yards on 17 carries, basically giving Newton a breather every now and again. Even with Jonathan Stewart (knee) due back at Lambeau, the Panthers look like a team prepared to utilize Cam as a focal point of both their run and pass games. Despite this plus matchup with Green Bay’s last-ranked run defense, annually-injured Stewart is a high-risk flex play. Reaves, Whittaker, and Chris Ogbonnaya are fantasy non-factors. DeAngelo Williams (high ankle sprain) is expected to miss at least two more games.

Bending and breaking, the Panthers have yielded offensive point totals of 38, 30, 24, and 37 to Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Cincinnati over the last month. Only five NFL teams have allowed more points than Carolina this season, and only six have yielded more yards. At home with a passing offense firing on all cylinders, the Packers should have their way with the Panthers. … Over its last four games, Carolina has been torched by Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, and Andy Dalton for 105-of-140 passing (75.0%), 1,135 yards (8.11 YPA), and a 9:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Cutler scored a tenth touchdown on a scramble. Only Andrew Luck has an argument as a better Week 7 quarterback play than Aaron Rodgers. Nursing a 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last five games, flaming-hot Rodgers has now gone 170 pass attempts without an interception. … In that same one-month stretch, the Panthers have served up 611 yards and five TDs on 105 carries (5.82 YPC) to Steelers, Ravens, Bears, and Bengals running backs. Although Eddie Lacy is coming off another slow game against Miami’s top-13 run defense, he’ll be a better bet to hit pay dirt against Carolina’s 27th-ranked group. The going-forward outlook for Lacy remains unchanged. Going from a true bellcow back to a complementary piece in Green Bay’s 2014 offense, Lacy is a touchdown-dependent RB1/2 on his current average of 13.3 carries per game. … The Packers have mixed in James Starks for 24 touches over their last two games. He’s managed 3.85 yards per carry, but the coaching staff insists Starks will stay involved. He’s worth a look as a desperation flex option in a game where Green Bay should have lots of offensive success.

Rodgers’ target distribution since Davante Adams took over as Green Bay’s No. 3 receiver three games ago: Jordy Nelson 31; Randall Cobb 20; Adams 15; Andrew Quarless and Starks 7; Lacy 5; Richard Rodgers 3. … Nelson is the No. 2 fantasy receiver behind Antonio Brown, by a 0.1-point margin. Jordy has more catches and receiving yards than Brown, but Brown has eight more rushing yards, causing the discrepancy. It goes without saying that Nelson is a top-three receiver play in Week 7 against Carolina’s suddenly swiss-cheese defense. Panthers LCB Antoine Cason has allowed a touchdown in four straight games. … We nailed the Andre Holmes FanDuel pick in this space last week and we’re going with Adams this week. Continuing to trend in the right direction, Adams set season highs in catches (6), yards (77), and targets (8) in last week’s win over Miami, playing a year-most 77.5% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps. A blowup game is coming soon, and I think this’ll be it. Panthers RCB Melvin White is having struggles of his own, allowing three touchdowns over Carolina’s last three games. He was victimized on Mohamed Sanu‘s 34-yard score in Week 6. … The Panthers have used ex-safety Charles Godfrey at slot corner in their last two games, and the results have been painful. Sanu and Dane Sanzenbacher racked up catches against Godfrey last week. Cobb’s touchdown dependency remains a concern, but he is Rodgers’ No. 2 pass-game option and an every-week WR2. … Green Bay tight ends are safe to avoid in Week 7. Despite Carolina’s overall defensive ineffectiveness, top tight end stat lines against the Panthers so far are 3-17-0 (Martellus Bennett), 4-51-0 (Heath Miller), 3-38-0 (Eric Ebron), 6-41-0 (Brandon Myers), 4-43-0 (Owen Daniels), and 6-68-0 (Jermaine Gresham). Carolina is 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Panthers 24

4:05PM ET Game

Kansas City @ San Diego

NFL Films’ Greg Cosell likened Branden Oliver to rookie-year Doug Martin on the Fantasy Guru podcast last week. I thought that was an apt comparison. Built low to the ground with a three-down skill set, Oliver is capable of grinding chain-moving runs, bouncing off contact with fantastic balance, and gobbling up blocked yards before tacking on something at the end. A gem of a UDFA find by Exec of the Year candidate Tom Telesco, I think Oliver is here to stay as a 10-14 touch-per-game back even when Ryan Mathews (knee) returns. In Week 7, Oliver is a locked-in RB1 against a Kansas City defense that has permitted 584 yards on 111 carries (5.26 YPC) to opposing running backs. The Chargers should move the ball with ease against the Chiefs, setting up scoring chances. A multi-TD game is in play for Oliver. … The Chargers’ quick-hitting passing attack poses a mismatch for Kansas City’s defense, which relies on the edge speed of Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and Dee Ford to mask back-end deficiencies. As Philip Rivers gets the ball out fast, the Chiefs’ pass rush doesn’t have time to get home. In last year’s two meetings with Chiefs DC Bob Sutton‘s 3-4, Rivers completed 68.1% of his throws for 621 yards (8.63 YPA) and a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio. As hot as any quarterback in football, expect Rivers to stay that way in Week 7. … Before the season, if you would’ve told me Rivers was playing at an MVP level six games in, and Keenan Allen was leading the Chargers in both targets and receptions — both are true — I would’ve told you Allen would be ripping the cover off the league. Instead, Allen has mixed one great game with five clunkers. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Allen physically. He just hasn’t scored any touchdowns and the ball is being spread around in San Diego’s offense. I personally would recommend non-Allen owners to try to buy low, and Allen owners to keep on starting him. But I get the concern. The production hasn’t come close to matching the opportunity.

Rivers’ Weeks 1-6 target distribution: Allen 42; Antonio Gates 37; Eddie Royal 34; Malcom Floyd 25; Donald Brown 18; Ladarius Green 14; Oliver 13. … Allen and Floyd switch sides depending on personnel package, but ultimately Floyd runs most of his routes against opposing left corners. Chiefs LCB Marcus Cooper is the weak link in Kansas City’s secondary, grading out as PFF’s No. 102 corner amongst 103 qualifiers, ahead of only Steelers LCB Cortez Allen. Floyd can be frustratingly hit or miss in fantasy, but this is a great matchup for him. Before Kansas City’s Week 6 bye, Cooper was shredded for long pass plays by Brandon Lloyd in Week 4, and coughed up a touchdown to Stevie Johnson in Week 5. … Not yet showing signs of slowdown, 34-year-old Gates has three touchdowns over his last two games. He’s a strong TE1 play against the Chiefs, who are weak at safety and inside linebacker and allow the 15th most fantasy points to tight ends. … Royal missed most of Week 6 with a rib injury, but still came away with a 2-49-1 stat line on two targets. Green (4-60) was the beneficiary as the Chargers turned to more two-tight end sets. With Green making the most of his opportunities, the split between his playing time and Royal’s could be closer to even going forward. With both healthy the game before, Green and Royal played the exact same number of snaps. Royal is a risky WR3 play, albeit in a favorable matchup with Chiefs liability slot corner Chris Owens. Green is still just a TE2 stash whose second half of the season should be stronger than his first half.

Derek Carr exposed the Chargers’ defense with vertical bombs in Week 6, an element Alex Smith doesn’t bring to the table. Much more comfortable working in the short to intermediate range, Smith squares off in Week 7 with a San Diego defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass and has allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks. Smith is a better two-QB-league start than QB1 streamer. … Smith’s target distribution through five 2014 starts: Travis Kelce 27; Donnie Avery 24; Dwayne Bowe 23; Anthony Fasano 20; Knile Davis 14; Junior Hemingway 13; Jamaal Charles 12; A.J. Jenkins 6. … Kelce’s three snap rates leading into the Chiefs’ Week 6 bye were 65%, 52%, and 60%. The fact that Kelce is already the most heavily targeted player on Kansas City’s roster suggests the coaching staff knows he’s their best weapon, and it’s conceivable that his playing time will continue to climb after the open date. San Diego has allowed the third fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but the best tight end they’ve faced is Jace Amaro. No. 8 at his position in per-game scoring, Kelce is an every-week TE1. … Out at least one more week, Avery (groin) was replaced in the starting lineup by Jenkins in the Chiefs’ last game. Jenkins finished with one catch for three yards. Kansas City’s No. 2 receiver position is safe to avoid in fantasy leagues.

Bowe’s stat lines since returning from his Week 1 suspension are 3-40-0, 3-32-0, 5-81-0, and 3-42-0. In a tough matchup with stout Chargers corners LCB Brandon Flowers and RCB Jason Verrett, Bowe is best viewed as a WR4. Neither Bowe’s production nor his Week 7 opponent indicates a big game is forthcoming. … The Chargers were quietly playing stout run defense before springing leaks in last week’s win over the Raiders. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones -Drew combined to tag San Diego for 110 yards on 18 carries (6.11 YPC), consistently getting to and past the second level on power-run plays. With fresh legs and a fully-healed ankle, Charles should have a big Week 7 performance. Since returning from his high ankle sprain in Week 4, Charles has rung up 172 yards and a touchdown on 33 runs (5.21 YPC), with two more scores in the passing game. He did that against the Patriots and 49ers, who both rank in the top half of the league in run defense. … After piling up 17 touches in combination with Charles three weeks ago versus New England, Davis touched the rock twice in Week 5 at San Francisco, playing nine snaps to Charles’ 39. Charles owners should handcuff him with Davis without thinking twice, but he isn’t a standalone flex option. Davis is an RB4 stash.

Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 20

4:25PM ET Games

Arizona @ Oakland

Overcoming his nerve injury to rejuvenate Arizona’s offense, Carson Palmer moved the Cards up and down the field in last Sunday’s win over Washington, showing inconsistent velocity but still an ability to make all of the throws required. Over his last 16 starts in Bruce Arians‘ passing game, Palmer has completed 63.8% of his attempts for 4,253 yards with 25 touchdowns. Taking on Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, and St. Louis over the next month, Palmer will be a streamable QB1 for the foreseeable future. This is a particularly friendly matchup. Geno Smith, Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Philip Rivers have combined to light up the Raiders for 106-of-149 passing (71.1%), 1,185 yards (7.95 YPA), and a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio through five games. Palmer carves up defenses when he has a clean pocket. Oakland ranks last in the AFC in sacks (5), and new Cardinals LT Jared Veldheer hasn’t allowed a single sack this year. … Palmer’s target distribution in two 2014 starts: Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington 14; John Brown 11; Larry Fitzgerald 10; John Carlson 7; Rob Housler 6; Stepfan Taylor 5; Ted Ginn 3. … Floyd has taken over as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver in his third NFL season, leading the team in targets both with and without Palmer in the lineup. Floyd’s two stat lines with a healthy Palmer are 5-119-0 and 4-47-1. He’s a WR2 with WR1 upside at Oakland, where Floyd will run most of his routes at seventh-round rookie LCB Travis Carrie. Give Floyd a serious look in daily leagues this week.

Fitzgerald went 6-98-1 on six targets last week and had a seventh reception that would’ve put him well over 100 yards negated by a holding penalty back at the line of scrimmage. With a healthy Palmer under center, Fitz should be a WR3 staple in fantasy lineups. … Third-round rookie Brown’s stat lines in Palmer’s starts are 2-29-1 and 4-43-0. Brown is a fantasy WR4. Barring injury to Fitz or Floyd, Brown is unlikely to offer consistency as the No. 4 option in Arizona’s offense behind the two starting wideouts and Ellington. … As Arians has never made it a point to involve tight ends heavily in his passing game, it’s no surprise Carlson is just barely a top-40 fantasy scorer on the season. That’s despite playing 87% of the Cardinals’ snaps. … Having lost critical run defenders SS Tyvon Branch and MLB Nick Roach to year-ending injured reserve, the Raiders have allowed opposing running backs to pile up 668 yards and five touchdowns on 152 rushing attempts (4.39 YPC). Branden Oliver and Ronnie Brown combined to hang 150 total yards and a touchdown on DC Jason Tarver‘s Oakland defense last week. Although Ellington has disappointed as a rusher in his first season as a true NFL feature back, he is averaging 20 touches and 99 all-purpose yards per game. In both PPR and non-PPR leagues, Ellington is a borderline RB1 play in the Black Hole.

The Raiders emerged from their Week 5 bye with a new coach (Tony Sparano) and an offensive identity Al Davis would love. Running the ball with power and volume, and attacking San Diego’s defense in the vertical game, the Black Hole played host to Derek Carr‘s best performance of the season. Whether Carr can maintain last week’s efficiency remains to be seen — he’s a rookie on a still-bad team — but the revised approach bodes particularly well for 6-foot-4, 210-pound new No. 1 receiver Andre Holmes. Over Oakland’s last two games, Holmes has played 87% of the offensive snaps, parlaying a team-high 20 targets into stat lines of 5-74-1 and 4-121-2. Carr and Holmes get another favorable draw in Week 7 against a Cardinals defense that ranks dead last against the pass and is tied for 30th in sacks. Carr has earned a two-QB-league start, although there are sure to be more bumps in the road. Holmes is an every-week WR3 with legitimate WR1 upside at his current usage rates. … Perhaps the most overrated NFL defender in recent memory, Patrick Peterson has allowed four touchdown passes through five games after surrendering seven in 2013, tied for fourth most among NFL cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus. He’s simply not an imposing matchup for wide receivers. … Carr’s target distribution over the past two games: Holmes 20; James Jones 13; Darren McFadden 9; Brice Butler 8; Marcel Reece 5; Vincent Brown and David Ausberry 4; Maurice Jones -Drew 3; Mychal Rivera 2; Denarius Moore 1.

Jones took over as the Raiders’ starting “Z” receiver two games ago, with Holmes at “X.” Jones has handled 84% of the snaps during that span, registering stat lines of 6-83 and 5-56-1. Usually best treated as a WR4, Jones is worth a WR3 look in matchups as favorable as this one. Based on where they typically line up, expect Jones to run most of his Week 7 routes at LCB Peterson while Holmes takes on RCB Antonio Cromartie. … Butler scored a 47-yard catch-and-run TD in last week’s loss to San Diego, but rotated third receiver snaps with Moore, and Brown may return from his hamstring injury this week. The Raiders’ sub-package receiver carousel isn’t to be trusted in fantasy lineups. … McFadden energized Oakland’s offense on second-half power runs against the Chargers en route to one of his best games in a long time. He’s locked in as Oakland’s feature runner, with Jones-Drew only sprinkling in for breather-back carries. Latavius Murray didn’t play a single snap in Sparano’s first game as interim coach. After his Week 6 performance, I’d feel better about McFadden’s outlook as a fantasy option. The Week 7 concern for “DMC” is Arizona’s top-three run defense, which despite losses of RE Calais Campbell and OLB Matt Shaughnessy held Alfred Morris (13-41-0) in check last week. Still, an increased run-game emphasis is likely on Sparano’s watch. McFadden is only a flex play against Arizona, but could be more useful in Week 8 at Cleveland and in Week 12 against the Chiefs. He’s certainly roster worthy as an RB3.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 24, Raiders 17

NY Giants @ Dallas

Previously piping hot, the Giants’ offense took a big step back in last Sunday night’s shutout loss to Philadelphia. New York’s line was dominated in the trenches, consistently losing one-on-one battles up front. Stalwart RT Justin Pugh was particularly ineffective, allowing four sacks. Whether that performance is a sign of things to come or was simply a one-game blip remains to be seen. Getting their run game kick started against a soft Cowboys defensive front would be a nice place to start. Through six games, Dallas has served up 651 yards on 112 carries (5.81 YPC) to opposing running backs. The biggest concern for New York’s offense is possession time. The Cowboys play keepaway offense and will limit the Giants’ control of the ball if DeMarco Murray runs on DC Perry Fewell‘s defense. Andre Williams has a great matchup, but there’s a chance game flow could work against him. He’s a bit of a boom-or-bust RB2. … Eli Manning entered Week 6 against the Eagles having completed 69% of his throws with a 10:3 TD-to-INT ratio over his previous four games. Absorbing six sacks against the Eagles, Manning’s efficiency and overall effectiveness fell off a cliff in Philly. While the Cowboys have been swiss cheese on the ground, their pass defense is more stout. DC Rod Marinelli‘s unit ranks No. 12 against the pass, has held enemy signal callers to a combined 8:7 TD-to-INT ratio across six games, and is preventing big plays. The good news for Eli is Marinelli’s bend-but-don’t-break Tampa 2 scheme is philosophically willing to surrender high-percentage completions while playing for the takeaway. Almost everything the Giants try to do in the passing game is high percentage. This obviously isn’t the week to use Eli on FanDuel, but I still like him as a low-end QB1.

Eli’s target distribution since Odell Beckham became a big part of New York’s offense two weeks ago: Rueben Randle 17; Beckham and Victor Cruz 9; Peyton Hillis and Preston Parker 4; Larry Donnell, Daniel Fells, and Williams 2. … Cruz’s patellar tendon tear vaults Beckham into an every-down role, playing across from Randle in two-receiver packages. Parker will take over at slot receiver. … Although Donnell’s production is way down the past two weeks, he has played 68% of New York’s offensive snaps during that stretch, roughly the same playing time Donnell handled in the opening month. It would not be surprising in the least to see Donnell bounce back big this week against a Dallas defense permitting league highs in receptions (42) and fantasy points to tight ends. The Giants need more from Donnell, and OC Ben McAdoo should know it. … Randle is now locked in as Eli’s go-to option on the perimeter. In Week 7, look for Randle to run most of his patterns against RCB Sterling Moore and LCB Brandon Carr. Moore has played well this year, while Carr has been up and down. I like Randle as a WR3 with WR2 upside beneath the Jerry World dome. … Beckham also plays on the outside and will move in and out of Moore and Carr’s coverage. He’s a WR3 option in an above-average matchup. … A journeyman street free agent type, Parker doesn’t remotely offer what Cruz did in the vertical game. Parker’s week-to-week ceiling will probably be in the range of six targets on possession routes. He isn’t worth rostering in 14- or even 16-team leagues. Parker also has the toughest Week 7 matchup in New York’s pass-catcher corps, running patterns against stingy slot corner Orlando Scandrick.

If the Seahawks couldn’t stop the Cowboys’ running game in Seattle, it’s fair to wonder if anyone can. I certainly wouldn’t expect the Giants to, one week removed from busting the Eagles’ run-game slump by coughing up 188 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries (6.48 YPC) to LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles. The G-Men figure to play less nickel and more base defense in Dallas than they did in Philly, but there’s still every reason to think they will get blown off the ball by the Cowboys’ mauling offensive line. As usual, DeMarco Murray is the top fantasy running back play of the week. … The Cowboys didn’t “lessen Murray’s load” as promised last week in Seattle — DeMarco’s 35 touches were his second most all season — but they did give Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar more work. Playing ten snaps, Randle (5-52) was the first man up for breather-back carries. Dunbar contributed six receptions for 31 yards, playing 14 downs. In the event of a Murray injury, I’d expect an RBBC with Randle as the primary ball carrier and Dunbar offering just as much, if not more PPR value. Murray is on a record-shattering 424-carry pace. … Enemy quarterback stats against the Giants over the last five weeks: 103-of-175 passing (58.9%) for 1,277 yards and a 5:10 TD-to-INT ratio. This isn’t a great matchup for Tony Romo, though it’s worth noting the Giants lost nickel back Trumaine McBride (thumb surgery) to I.R. and may or may not have LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (back, ankle, hamstring) against the Cowboys. With multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, Romo has earned streamer QB1 consideration. I wouldn’t expect a monster game, but Romo should be solid.

Romo’s Weeks 1-6 target distribution: Dez Bryant 57; Jason Witten 33; Terrance Williams 28; Murray 25; Cole Beasley 16; Dunbar 13; Dwayne Harris 7; Gavin Escobar 6; Devin Street 4. … At full strength, New York’s secondary has posed a relatively difficult matchup for opposing wide receivers. In its current state, it’s a defense to attack. Although Dez is coming off a slow game by his standards (4-63-0) as Seattle made the rare move to shadow him with Richard Sherman following Byron Maxwell‘s calf injury, Bryant is set up for a rebound week. If DRC can’t play, special teamer Zackary Bowman and former third-round bust Jayron Hosley would be forced to play significant snaps. … Williams’ target totals remain worrisome from a forward-thinking perspective, but he should have openings against the banged-up Giants. He remains a recommended sell high, scoring fantasy points above his head as the No. 4 option in Dallas’ offense. … Witten’s Week 6 touchdown catch was his first since December of 2013. Critical to the Cowboys’ blocking schemes, Witten is averaging under four catches for 40 yards per game. He’s a borderline TE1 at best against a Giants defense that ranks 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants 21

Sunday Night Football

San Francisco @ Denver

Sunday night’s 49ers-Broncos game has a 50-point over-under, the highest of Week 7. This is a game to target in fantasy lineup decisions. … With Niners ILB Patrick Willis (toe) expected to miss this game, Julius Thomas‘ matchup gets a significant boost. San Francisco will turn to third-round rookie Chris Borland to take Willis’ place. Borland is a short-armed, stocky run stopper who will be severely overmatched when he lines up against Orange Julius. If the 49ers try using a cornerback in tight end coverage instead, Thomas will have a major size advantage. … Peyton Manning enters Week 7 on pace for a 48:10 TD-to-INT ratio and averaging 306 passing yards per game. The 49ers have done well to play top-two pass defense to this point, but were already without ILB Navorro Bowman, OLB Aldon Smith, and top CB Tramaine Brock, and now will be minus Willis and potentially slot corner Jimmie Ward (quad). No NFL quarterback is better at diagnosing weaknesses than Peyton, and San Francisco has holes. I’d set his floor at three TDs and around 260 passing yards against the Niners. … Replacing Montee Ball (groin), Ronnie Hillman was Denver’s feature back in last week’s triumph over the Jets, parlaying a career-high 27 touches into 116 yards and playing 76% of the Broncos’ snaps. Breather back Juwan Thompson played 17 downs and handled nine touches. C.J. Anderson played one snap. This is far from a cupcake matchup against San Francisco’s top-five run defense, but starting running backs in Peyton Manning offenses are every-week starters by rule. The Broncos are using Hillman as a true every-down back. He’s a solid RB2 in this projected high-scoring affair. Willis’ absence also works to Hillman’s advantage.

Manning’s target distribution since Wes Welker returned from suspension three games ago: Demaryius Thomas 37; Emmanuel Sanders 30; Welker 19; Julius 17; Hillman 9; Jacob Tamme 4. … Remember when Demaryius was an early-season fantasy disappointment? Me neither. Despite a bye mixed in, Demaryius is the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver over the past three weeks. He should have little trouble staying hot against up-and-down 49ers RCB Chris Culliver. … Sanders is coming off his slowest game as a Bronco (3-38-0), but Peyton has a tendency to feed the hungry, heavily targeting pass catchers coming off quiet games. Still the No. 2 pass-game option in Manning’s offense, Sanders is at worst an every-week WR2 in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. … Also coming back from a silent game (1-8-0), Welker is another candidate to get fed footballs against the possibly Ward-less 49ers. With Brock definitely out, San Francisco may have to turn to raw fourth-round rookie Dontae Johnson and/or oft-burned ex-Viking Chris Cook for prominent Week 7 roles. Welker is still just a WR3 in PPR leagues, and borderline WR3/4 in standard scoring.

Colin Kaepernick‘s week-to-week fantasy production has been a roller-coaster ride. A random on-field player prone to the highest of highs but lowest of lows, Kaepernick returns from easily his best game of the season as a question mark taking on a Denver defense that ranks 16th in yards allowed, but is top six in sacks per game (15), completion rate against (58.5), YPA permitted (6.2), and passer rating surrendered (80.0). The Broncos give up a healthy dose of passing yards because they’ve faced the second most pass attempts in the league (41.4 per game). I’d continue to view Kaepernick as the borderline QB1 he’s been throughout 2014, and I wouldn’t be afraid to fire up Denver’s fantasy defense. I don’t think the 49ers’ offense matches up particularly well with the Broncos. … San Francisco’s rushing attack screeched to a halt in last Monday night’s win over St. Louis, as Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde combined to manage 52 scoreless yards on 27 carries (1.93 YPC). I don’t think the performance is symptomatic of ground-game failures to come, but Denver is playing stout run defense and poses another difficult matchup. Through five games, the Broncos have limited enemy running backs to 273 yards and four TDs on 94 carries (2.90 YPC). Gore is a low-end RB2/flex option this week. Although Hyde’s rushing usage has risen in recent games, he’s caught four passes for four yards on the season and is a low-ceiling, touchdown-dependent flex. Hyde is a fantasy RB3/4.

Kaepernick’s target distribution in the four weeks this season where Vernon Davis has played all or most of the game: Anquan Boldin 31; Michael Crabtree 29; Davis 18; Stevie Johnson 14; Brandon Lloyd 7; Derek Carr ier 6; Gore 5; Hyde and Vance McDonald 4. … Smothering perimeter receivers, Denver’s dynamic cornerback duo of RCB Chris Harr is and LCB Aqib Talib held opposing No. 1 wideouts T.Y. Hilton (5-41-0), Dwayne Bowe (3-40), Percy Harvin (7-42-0), and Michael Floyd (1-7-0) in check during their first four games, before old pal Eric Decker hung a 6-54-1 line on the Broncos last week, scoring a goal-line touchdown in fourth-quarter garbage time. This game’s shootout potential enhances Crabtree’s outlook, but his matchup won’t be easy. The best news for fantasy owners is his bothersome foot looked healthy on Monday Night Football as Crabtree played 77% of the Niners’ offensive snaps and went 3-49-1 on eight targets in St. Louis. I’d treat Crabtree as a low-end WR2 but high-end WR3 at Denver. … Broncos rookie slot corner Bradley Roby has been impressive this season, but savvy veteran Boldin should have a number of matchup advantages against him, from route running to the ability to win contested catches. With at least six targets in every game this year, Boldin is a sensible WR3 with a bit more upside than usual this week. Kaepernick will probably have to fire off a high number of pass attempts. … Clearly still hobbled by his back and/or ankle ailments on Monday night, Davis appeared well south of 100% and is now playing on a short week. He’s still a viable TE1 facing a Broncos defense allowing the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends. … Johnson and Lloyd are useful real-life players, but offer little fantasy value. Johnson has played an average of 12 snaps per game the past three weeks, Lloyd 27. One of them might have a good game on Sunday night, but neither is a good fantasy bet going in.

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, 49ers 23

Monday Night Football

Houston @ Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger‘s early-season hot stretch flamed out in last week’s blowout loss to Cleveland. Credit goes to the Browns, who turned in their best defensive effort of the season. Mike Pettine‘s unit only blitzed Big Ben on 5-of-44 dropbacks, but still got pressure from its down linemen, gave up nothing downfield, and held Pittsburgh scoreless on three red-zone trips. Having allowed Eli Manning, E.J. Manuel, Tony Romo, and Andrew Luck to combine to complete 95-of-157 passes (60.5%) for 1,153 yards (7.34 YPA) and a 9:4 TD-to-INT ratio over their last four games, the Texans are a generally unimposing pass defense for fantasy matchup purposes. Luck scorched Houston for 370 yards and three TDs two Thursday nights ago. Expect a solid if unspectacular Monday nighter from Roethlisberger. He’s a lower-end QB1. … Big Ben’s target distribution in Weeks 1-6: Antonio Brown 61; Markus Wheaton 39; Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller 35; Justin Brown 21; Lance Moore 8; LeGarrette Blount and Dri Archer 5. … Recent enemy No. 1 receiver stat lines against the Texans: 9-112-1 (James Jones); 5-107-1 (Victor Cruz); 4-30-1 (Sammy Watkins); 9-85-1 (Dez Bryant); 9-223-1 (T.Y. Hilton). Fire up Brown and watch him work. … Although 4.40 speedster Wheaton is theoretically capable of breaking big plays, he’s shown very little ability to do so in his sophomore season. Despite a season-high 12 targets in last week’s loss to Cleveland, Wheaton managed 33 yards and remains scoreless on the season. He’s averaging just over three catches for 35 yards per game over the last month. If Wheaton has his long-awaited breakout game on Monday Night Football, there will not have been any indications it was coming.

The Texans are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, although they’ve permitted the sixth most receptions (33) to the position. 15th in tight end scoring on the season, Miller remains a low-ceiling TE1 option. … Steelers slot man Moore played a season-high 46% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps in Week 6. He’s sharing third receiver duties with Brown (36%). … The Texans have surrendered 683 yards and four touchdowns on 155 runs (4.41 YPC) to enemy tailbacks through six games. This is a favorable matchup for Le’Veon Bell, who has maintained a per-game average of nearly 133 total yards amid his five-game scoring drought. This is probably a good time to put in an offer to the Le’Veon owner in your league. Fantasy leaguers are (understandably) fickle about touchdown scoring, and Bell’s perceived stock may have reached a low. In the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16), Bell will face the Bengals, Falcons, and Chiefs. Those defenses rank 29th, 28th, and 23rd against the run, respectively. … Just a breather back off the Steelers’ bench, Blount has eight rushing attempts in back-to-back games but managed 3.50 YPC without a touchdown on them. He played 11 snaps in last week’s loss to Cleveland, while Bell handled 65. Blount is just handcuff for Le’Veon owners.

Leading up to the Texans-Colts Week 6 Thursday nighter, I expressed some concern about Arian Foster‘s increasingly fragile body and how his balky hamstrings would hold up on a short week. Foster answered those question marks vehemently, dropping a 20-109-2 rushing number on Indianapolis, with 3-32 in the passing game. When healthy, Foster remains a man amongst boys in the open field with an elite combination of vision, patience, and deceptive quickness. He’s regained top-five RB1 value entering Monday night’s date with Pittsburgh’s soft defense, which has allowed 603 yards and six touchdowns on 132 carries (4.57 YPC) to opposing running backs and will be without NT Steve McLendon (shoulder). The Steelers have been especially vulnerable to zone-scheme running games. Texans rookie coach Bill O’Brien has kept many of Houston’s zone-blocking concepts intact from the Gary Kubiak era. Foster’s legs should be as fresh as they’ll be all season on a long week between Thursday and Monday games. … Ryan Fitzpatrick has played poorly for a month-long stretch now, which elicited questions from reporters following last Thursday night’s loss as to whether O’Brien will stick with FitzMagic as his starter. Over his last four games, Fitzpatrick is 76-of-119 passing for 923 yards and a 3:6 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s absorbed ten sacks, fumbling three times (one lost). As the Texans continue to rack up losses, the probability of an in-game benching will increase for Fitzpatrick. Ryan Mallett and rookie Tom Savage are waiting in the wings.

FitzMagic’s Weeks 1-6 target distribution: Andre Johnson 54; DeAndre Hopkins 33; Foster 24; Damaris Johnson 14; Garrett Graham 13; Alfred Blue 4. … Continuing to get beaten like a drum, Steelers LCB Cortez Allen allowed well over 100 receiving yards into his coverage in last week’s blowout loss to Cleveland, including Jordan Cameron‘s 51-yard touchdown bomb. The Texans shuttle Johnson and Hopkins back and forth between the left and right sides, but ultimately Hopkins gets most of his catches against left corners. Look for a rebound game from Houston’s sophomore breakout wideout following last Thursday night’s surprise 1-12-0 clunker. Hopkins’ average of 5.5 targets per game locks him in as more of a WR3 than WR2, despite his current top-20 fantasy receiver ranking. … Johnson has remained a target monster in O’Brien’s offense. The fantasy results hadn’t caught up until the Thursday night loss to Indianapolis, where Andre made catches on stingy RCB Vontae Davis and demonstrated great concentration on his four-yard touchdown catch, getting just behind LCB Greg Toler. On Monday night, Johnson will run routes against both RCB William Gay and LCB Allen. Fantasy owners should hope O’Brien gets Johnson matched up on Allen in scoring position. 12th among all NFL wideouts in targets and 10th in catches (34), Johnson is an every-week WR2. … The Texans seem to be disappointed in Graham, holding him under 40 snaps in back-to-back games. Slot receiver Damaris Johnson‘s usage has begun to climb, at the expense of two-tight end packages. Houston’s passing offense has been unable to support more than one fantasy-viable starter on a week-to-week basis, let alone two or three. Graham has no re-draft value.

Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Texans 20

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