Weekly Surprises: Week 7 Sleepers
Thursday, October 16, 2014
As of writing this late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, there’s only one game with an over-under of 50-plus points, and that’s Bengals at Colts (50). The lines for Saints at Lions, Giants at Cowboys, and 49ers and Broncos have yet to be set, though all three of those contests have chances to be high-scoring affairs. Two clubs are on their bye: Bucs and Eagles. It’s hard to find cheap value at the running back spot on FanDuel this week, so I had to go a bit over my self-imposed $6000 barrier to find a couple sleeper picks. At quarterback, I found two really cheap options. And at wide receiver and tight end, I kept my limit at 6000 FanDuel dollars. Let’s get to this week’s picks.
QB Derek Carr vs. Cardinals ($6800): Arizona has lost LE Darnell Dockett, ILB Daryl Washington, OLB Matt Shaughnessy, and OLB John Abraham for the season. RE Calais Campbell (knee) is expected to sit out. CB Patrick Peterson is battling a bum ankle. Peterson is playing like a replacement-level corner as is, while fellow CB Antonio Cromartie is susceptible to the big play. The Cardinals are dead-last in pass defense, have allowed the third-most 20-plus-yard pass plays, and are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Carr gets them at home and is coming off a 282-yard, four-touchdown effort against the Chargers in interim coach Tony Sparano‘s debut. Carr also now has a legit No. 1 wideout in Andre Holmes. Carr has some QB2 appeal.
QB Brian Hoyer at Jaguars ($6400): Much like the Cardinals, the Jaguars are god-awful against the pass. (Jacksonville is bad at just about every aspect of the game right now.) The Jaguars have allowed the most 20-plus-yard pass plays in the league (32) and Brian Hoyer has completed the most passes of that kind (15) for the most yards (531). Bingo. We have a legit streaming option for Week 7. The Jaguars have a league-low one interception and have allowed the fourth-most touchdown passes (12). Hoyer is playing the best football of his life with three straight starts with a passer rating of at least 97.9. He averaged over 30 attempts per game in his first four starts. Hoyer will make some appearances in my FanDuel lineups. Only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Teddy Bridgewater are cheaper among the 30 projected starting quarterbacks this week.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $500,000 Fantasy Football league for Week 7’s games. It’s only $10 to join and first prize is $40,000. Starts Sunday, October 19th at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
RB Justin Forsett vs. Falcons ($6200): The Falcons’ struggles against the run are well-documented to this point. They’re 27th in the league in terms of total rushing yards allowed, but they’ve allowed the most to running backs (767), a league-high 11 roughing touchdowns, and league-worst 41 catches out of the backfield to opposing backs. Fire Forsett up as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside. The Baltimore backfield remains Forsett’s, as he’s done nothing to relinquish the gig. Bernard Pierce is the clear No. 2, with Lorenzo Taliaferro No. 3. After Joe Flacco exploded for five touchdown passes last week, it’s Forsett’s turn to have some fun.
RB James Starks vs. Panthers ($6200): This price is too high for me on FanDuel, but Starks makes for an interesting play for re-draft owners in a bind. Starks and Eddie Lacy have each played 57 snaps over the past two weeks, splitting the workload evenly, and it’s clear the Packers want to get Starks touches. It’s a crap shoot as to who will see the goal-line work with the two backs rotating series. Both runners have a great matchup against a Panthers defense that is 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Starks has averaged 10 carries and 3.5 targets per game the last two weeks. That’s enough to do some damage as an RB2/3.
RB Jeremy Hill at Colts ($5200): With A.J. Green (toe) and Marvin Jones (ankle, foot) out again this week, look for the Bengals to lean on their run game on the road. Hill played over 32 percent of the snaps last week, which is up from his season average of 27 percent. Part of that had to do with Giovani Bernard missing a few minutes of game time with a shoulder injury. Excluding his 15-carry Week 2, Hill had a season-high eight carries and four targets in the passing game last Sunday against the Panthers. He once again found the end zone and has scored in 3-of-5 games. The Colts have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (7) to running backs. Hill continues to be one of the cheapest usable options in daily at the running back spot and is a must-own in re-draft formats who can fill in in a pinch.
Don’t forget, for everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @NickMensio on Twitter.
WR Andre Holmes vs. Cardinals ($6000): Andre Holmes isn’t a sleeper anymore. I banged this drum last week when he was $4500 on FanDuel. And I’m coming back for more while he’s still cheap. As mentioned above in Derek Carr‘s writeup, the Cardinals are 32nd against the pass and have allowed a ton of big plays through the air. Big plays are Holmes’ specialty, as evidenced by his 17.5 YPR average on 40 catches over the past two seasons. Patrick Peterson is playing bad football in 2014, and Antonio Cromartie is yielding 21.3 YPR in his coverage. Holmes is an every-down field-stretcher who has seen 19 targets the past two games. In interim coach Tony Sparano‘s debut last week, it was obvious the Raiders opened up the playbook by running the football and taking shots downfield with Carr’s big arm and Holmes’ long speed. He’s a high-upside WR3/4.
WR Justin Hunter at Redskins ($5800): Andre Holmes‘ Week 6 is what we’re all starving to see out of Justin Hunter. Much like Holmes, Hunter has become an every-down player the past two weeks at X receiver. He’s turned nine targets into six catches for 176 yards and one touchdown. Hunter now gets a delectable matchup against the Redskins and rookie LCB Bashaud Breeland. Breeland has been torched the past three weeks, surrendering a combined 16-224-2 receiving line while allowing a 150.8 passer rating over that stretch. Hunter is in the same boat as Holmes as a high-upside WR3/4.
WR Malcom Floyd vs. Chiefs ($5800): Across four starts this season, Chiefs LCB Marcus Cooper has allowed 23 catches for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Who will be running most of his routes against Cooper on Sunday? Malcom Floyd. Floyd is seeing about five targets per game and has turned them into 17 catches for 362 yards (21.3 YPR) and three scores. The Bolts get the Chiefs at home. It’s a plus matchup for Floyd, who flies under the radar every week.
WR Davante Adams vs. Panthers ($5200): Marcus Cooper is Pro Football Focus’ second-worst cover corner through six weeks. Dead-last is Panthers LCB Antoine Cason. Quarterbacks are completing 80 percent of their passes in Cason’s coverage, and the former first-round pick has allowed four touchdowns. Jordy Nelson and Adams are going to run a ton of routes against Cason, and whoever doesn’t get Cason, gets Melvin White, who’s been burnt just as bad in 2014. The two have combined to surrender seven passing touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day. Adams has a firm grip on the No. 3 job, even with Jarrett Boykin (groin) returning to practice this week. Adams is getting better by the week and continues to play heavy snaps. He’s a WR3.
TE Dwayne Allen vs. Bengals ($5700): The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and they’re now likely to be without MLB Rey Maualuga (hamstring) and SLB Emmauel Lamur (shoulder) this week. Allen has caught a touchdown pass in 4-of-6 games and has seen at least five targets in 4-of-6 contests. In back-to-back weeks, Allen has set new season-highs for pass routes ran, so his role continues to grow in the pass game. He remains dependent on touchdowns, but he has a better than even chance of finding pay dirt Sunday.
TE Larry Donnell at Cowboys ($5500): The wheels have fallen off the Larry Donnell bandwagon the past two weeks. He didn’t reel in a pass against the Falcons on one target in Week 5 and was held to one catch for six yards last Sunday against the Eagles. Look for Donnell to get back on track against Dallas. The Cowboys have been playing terrific defense, but they do struggle against tight ends, having allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position with six touchdowns. Slot receiver Victor Cruz‘s year-ending patellar tendon tear should also benefit Donnell. He should hop back on board the TE1 train this week.
TE Jared Cook vs. Seahawks ($5200): In case you haven’t noticed the theme at tight end, we’re targeting defenses that struggle to cover the position. The Seahawks have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. They also lost stud MLB Bobby Wagner to turf toe. Over the last three games, Cook has seen 28 passes come his way as Austin Davis‘ safety valve over the middle and seam stretcher down the middle of the field. Brian Quick is the guy on the outside. Cook drives people crazy with his questionable hands and failure to secure touchdowns, but you can bank on targets with him. We just have to hope he can finally find the end zone.
As of writing this late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, there’s only one game with an over-under of 50-plus points, and that’s Bengals at Colts (50). The lines for Saints at Lions, Giants at Cowboys, and 49ers and Broncos have yet to be set, though all three of those contests have chances to be high-scoring affairs. Two clubs are on their bye: Bucs and Eagles. It’s hard to find cheap value at the running back spot on FanDuel this week, so I had to go a bit over my self-imposed $6000 barrier to find a couple sleeper picks. At quarterback, I found two really cheap options. And at wide receiver and tight end, I kept my limit at 6000 FanDuel dollars. Let’s get to this week’s picks.
QB Derek Carr vs. Cardinals ($6800): Arizona has lost LE Darnell Dockett, ILB Daryl Washington, OLB Matt Shaughnessy, and OLB John Abraham for the season. RE Calais Campbell (knee) is expected to sit out. CB Patrick Peterson is battling a bum ankle. Peterson is playing like a replacement-level corner as is, while fellow CB Antonio Cromartie is susceptible to the big play. The Cardinals are dead-last in pass defense, have allowed the third-most 20-plus-yard pass plays, and are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Carr gets them at home and is coming off a 282-yard, four-touchdown effort against the Chargers in interim coach Tony Sparano‘s debut. Carr also now has a legit No. 1 wideout in Andre Holmes. Carr has some QB2 appeal.
QB Brian Hoyer at Jaguars ($6400): Much like the Cardinals, the Jaguars are god-awful against the pass. (Jacksonville is bad at just about every aspect of the game right now.) The Jaguars have allowed the most 20-plus-yard pass plays in the league (32) and Brian Hoyer has completed the most passes of that kind (15) for the most yards (531). Bingo. We have a legit streaming option for Week 7. The Jaguars have a league-low one interception and have allowed the fourth-most touchdown passes (12). Hoyer is playing the best football of his life with three straight starts with a passer rating of at least 97.9. He averaged over 30 attempts per game in his first four starts. Hoyer will make some appearances in my FanDuel lineups. Only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Teddy Bridgewater are cheaper among the 30 projected starting quarterbacks this week.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $500,000 Fantasy Football league for Week 7’s games. It’s only $10 to join and first prize is $40,000. Starts Sunday, October 19th at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
RB Justin Forsett vs. Falcons ($6200): The Falcons’ struggles against the run are well-documented to this point. They’re 27th in the league in terms of total rushing yards allowed, but they’ve allowed the most to running backs (767), a league-high 11 roughing touchdowns, and league-worst 41 catches out of the backfield to opposing backs. Fire Forsett up as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside. The Baltimore backfield remains Forsett’s, as he’s done nothing to relinquish the gig. Bernard Pierce is the clear No. 2, with Lorenzo Taliaferro No. 3. After Joe Flacco exploded for five touchdown passes last week, it’s Forsett’s turn to have some fun.
RB James Starks vs. Panthers ($6200): This price is too high for me on FanDuel, but Starks makes for an interesting play for re-draft owners in a bind. Starks and Eddie Lacy have each played 57 snaps over the past two weeks, splitting the workload evenly, and it’s clear the Packers want to get Starks touches. It’s a crap shoot as to who will see the goal-line work with the two backs rotating series. Both runners have a great matchup against a Panthers defense that is 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Starks has averaged 10 carries and 3.5 targets per game the last two weeks. That’s enough to do some damage as an RB2/3.
RB Jeremy Hill at Colts ($5200): With A.J. Green (toe) and Marvin Jones (ankle, foot) out again this week, look for the Bengals to lean on their run game on the road. Hill played over 32 percent of the snaps last week, which is up from his season average of 27 percent. Part of that had to do with Giovani Bernard missing a few minutes of game time with a shoulder injury. Excluding his 15-carry Week 2, Hill had a season-high eight carries and four targets in the passing game last Sunday against the Panthers. He once again found the end zone and has scored in 3-of-5 games. The Colts have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (7) to running backs. Hill continues to be one of the cheapest usable options in daily at the running back spot and is a must-own in re-draft formats who can fill in in a pinch.
Don’t forget, for everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @NickMensio on Twitter.
WR Andre Holmes vs. Cardinals ($6000): Andre Holmes isn’t a sleeper anymore. I banged this drum last week when he was $4500 on FanDuel. And I’m coming back for more while he’s still cheap. As mentioned above in Derek Carr‘s writeup, the Cardinals are 32nd against the pass and have allowed a ton of big plays through the air. Big plays are Holmes’ specialty, as evidenced by his 17.5 YPR average on 40 catches over the past two seasons. Patrick Peterson is playing bad football in 2014, and Antonio Cromartie is yielding 21.3 YPR in his coverage. Holmes is an every-down field-stretcher who has seen 19 targets the past two games. In interim coach Tony Sparano‘s debut last week, it was obvious the Raiders opened up the playbook by running the football and taking shots downfield with Carr’s big arm and Holmes’ long speed. He’s a high-upside WR3/4.
WR Justin Hunter at Redskins ($5800): Andre Holmes‘ Week 6 is what we’re all starving to see out of Justin Hunter. Much like Holmes, Hunter has become an every-down player the past two weeks at X receiver. He’s turned nine targets into six catches for 176 yards and one touchdown. Hunter now gets a delectable matchup against the Redskins and rookie LCB Bashaud Breeland. Breeland has been torched the past three weeks, surrendering a combined 16-224-2 receiving line while allowing a 150.8 passer rating over that stretch. Hunter is in the same boat as Holmes as a high-upside WR3/4.
WR Malcom Floyd vs. Chiefs ($5800): Across four starts this season, Chiefs LCB Marcus Cooper has allowed 23 catches for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Who will be running most of his routes against Cooper on Sunday? Malcom Floyd. Floyd is seeing about five targets per game and has turned them into 17 catches for 362 yards (21.3 YPR) and three scores. The Bolts get the Chiefs at home. It’s a plus matchup for Floyd, who flies under the radar every week.
WR Davante Adams vs. Panthers ($5200): Marcus Cooper is Pro Football Focus’ second-worst cover corner through six weeks. Dead-last is Panthers LCB Antoine Cason. Quarterbacks are completing 80 percent of their passes in Cason’s coverage, and the former first-round pick has allowed four touchdowns. Jordy Nelson and Adams are going to run a ton of routes against Cason, and whoever doesn’t get Cason, gets Melvin White, who’s been burnt just as bad in 2014. The two have combined to surrender seven passing touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day. Adams has a firm grip on the No. 3 job, even with Jarrett Boykin (groin) returning to practice this week. Adams is getting better by the week and continues to play heavy snaps. He’s a WR3.
TE Dwayne Allen vs. Bengals ($5700): The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and they’re now likely to be without MLB Rey Maualuga (hamstring) and SLB Emmauel Lamur (shoulder) this week. Allen has caught a touchdown pass in 4-of-6 games and has seen at least five targets in 4-of-6 contests. In back-to-back weeks, Allen has set new season-highs for pass routes ran, so his role continues to grow in the pass game. He remains dependent on touchdowns, but he has a better than even chance of finding pay dirt Sunday.
TE Larry Donnell at Cowboys ($5500): The wheels have fallen off the Larry Donnell bandwagon the past two weeks. He didn’t reel in a pass against the Falcons on one target in Week 5 and was held to one catch for six yards last Sunday against the Eagles. Look for Donnell to get back on track against Dallas. The Cowboys have been playing terrific defense, but they do struggle against tight ends, having allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position with six touchdowns. Slot receiver Victor Cruz‘s year-ending patellar tendon tear should also benefit Donnell. He should hop back on board the TE1 train this week.
TE Jared Cook vs. Seahawks ($5200): In case you haven’t noticed the theme at tight end, we’re targeting defenses that struggle to cover the position. The Seahawks have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. They also lost stud MLB Bobby Wagner to turf toe. Over the last three games, Cook has seen 28 passes come his way as Austin Davis‘ safety valve over the middle and seam stretcher down the middle of the field. Brian Quick is the guy on the outside. Cook drives people crazy with his questionable hands and failure to secure touchdowns, but you can bank on targets with him. We just have to hope he can finally find the end zone.
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