Score predictions for Notre Dame-FSU and other key matchups

Each week during the 2014 college football season I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups. Last week my picks went 6-4 straight up and 4-6 against the spread. My overall record stands at 53-17 straight up and 35-34-1 against the spread. At the halfway point of the season, only six teams remain unbeaten and that number is guaranteed to fall this week with one of the more anticipated games of the year taking place in Tallahassee between the undefeated Irish and Seminoles.

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+12) at No. 2 Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC

The Seminoles are 5-2 in the series and won the last meeting 18-14 in the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl. Obviously the most famous matchup in the series came back in 1993 when College GameDay made its first on-campus appearance to see No. 2 Notre Dame knock off No. 1 Florida State 31-24 in South Bend. The last time the Irish visited Tallahassee was back in 2002, when they came in unbeaten and upset the Seminoles 34-24.

Even though they have failed to cover five of their six games this year, the Seminoles still sport a program-record 22-game win streak after last week’s 38-20 win over Syracuse. After outscoring their opponents by an incredible 40 points per game (and outgaining them by 238 yards per game) a year ago, they are “only” outscoring their foes by 18 PPG (and outgaining them by 104 YPG) this year. Jameis Winston‘s numbers have also fallen. After throwing four times as many TDs as INTs last year, he’s only throwing double the amount of TDs to INTs this year. While it has been yet another distracting week off the field for Winston and the Seminoles, what’s more worrisome on the field is a defense that has now allowed 400 or more yards in four of the last seven, including 412 last week to a Syracuse team that was playing a third-string quarterback most of the game.

On the other side, this will be Notre Dame’s first true away game this year. Last week, it found itself in a flat spot against North Carolina and had to hang on for a 50-43 win to move to 6-0 for just the third time in the past 20 years. Its defense, which was allowing just 12 PPG prior, was gashed for 510 yards. Everett Golson continues to have turnover issues, with nine in the past three games after having zero in the first three. He still sports a 16-1 record as a starting quarterback, which is only bested by Winston’s 19-0 mark among QBs with at least 10 starts.

Obviously, the Fighting Irish have some doubters, but this team is starting to feel like the one from that 2012 season. In 2012, they beat Stanford in the last seconds and escaped an upset in a flat spot against BYU, then traveled to Oklahoma where they found themselves a 12-point underdog to the Sooners. Notre Dame would win that one 30-13 en route to its first undefeated regular season since 1988. Now two years later, it is fresh off a win over Stanford in the waning seconds, survived a flat spot and now finds itself a 12-point underdog (opening line before it was taken off) on the road. Will history repeat itself or will the Seminoles continue to find a way to win amid all the distractions? This one goes down to the wire.

ATS pick: