NFL Pick$ Against The Spread That Don’t Suck: Week 7 – SportsGrid

NFL Pick$ Against The Spread That Don’t Suck: Week 7

by Matt Rudnitsky | 7:45 am, October 16th, 2014

Every week, I’ll pick NFL games against the spread and track my results. Last year went surprisingly well, but I promise I’ll mock my inevitable failures.

I sucked donkey penis last week, combining horrid luck with some bad picks. It happens.

IMPORTANT: I am not an “expert,” but my analysis is still worth reading. I’m not an expert because nobody is an expert, and if someone calls himself an expert, he’s probably not an expert.

The point of this column is to give a unique angle of analysis — the bettor’s perspective — the psychology and resources of which are far superior to the brain-dead “the popular team should win because they should” that you see from “experts” on ESPN and elsewhere, who don’t even acknowledge point spreads.

There is a solid chance these picks will lose money, so I’m not recommending that you bet on them blindly. But I do recommend that you read for a new perspective. And plenty of stupid jokes. Doesn’t Ben Roethlisberger look like Will Ferrell if he ate nothing but KFC for a month? (It’s funny because Roethlisberger is the athlete… zing!)

Please don’t hesitate to call me a moron on Twitter if inspiration strikes. Now would be a good time.

(ALSO: Interested in learning how to transfer from smart, dedicated fan to rational sports bettor? Email matt@sportsgrid with the subject “book” to get free advice on how to start betting on sports, from psychology to money management to picking winners.)

New York Jets (+9.5) over New England Patriots

I ignore most media, but the headline: “Injury-riddled Patriots regroup on fly on short week” sums up my feelings about the Patriots. (See, they’re so tired they can’t even use proper grammar.)

The Pats just lost Jerod Mayo and are really banged up on the offensive line. The last two weeks were really impressive, but the Jets have the top-ranked pass rush in the league. Yeah, Geno Smith sucks, blah blah blah… but the Patriots are on a short week against a team they match up poorly with.

As long as multiple pick-sixes aren’t involved, the Pats’ team total will likely be too high. It isn’t out yet, but will probably be around 27.

And if this goes up to +10, a Jets bet might be in the cards. Joke all you want, but they made Peyton Manning look horrible for a good portion of last week’s game, and Tom Brady has looked bad for much of the past two years… past two weeks aside.

BET: Patriots team total UNDER 27.5 (-110), $210 to win $200

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over Indianapolis Colts*

Some weird stats going on here.

The Bengals are 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but 32nd in rush defense DVOA. The Colts are 10th in pass defense DVOA, but 31st in rush defense DVOA.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill (but not Trent Richardson, let’s be honest)… are gonna get DRUNK after this game. Party time.

The Bengals are undoubtedly the better team, but Andy Dalton on the road without AJ Green is not something I can stomach.

Washington Potato Skins* (-5) over Tennessee Titans

Poop at home vs. slightly stinkier poop. Fair line.

Chicago Bears* (-3) over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 4th(!) in defensive DVOA, and the Bears are… 8th? Weird things are happening. I think the Dolphins number is close-to-accurate, but the Bears are overrated a bit due to an off-day from Matt Ryan at home.

Still, both teams are better than you think on defense.

I lean slightly to Chicago, but they’re pretty even overall. Better offense for Chicago, better defense for Miami.

Jacksonville Jaguars* (+5.5) over Cleveland Browns

Jacksonville covered the spread last week! Miracles can happen.

But they didn’t win

Cleveland, as I’ve been repeating, is dominating on offense (2nd in DVOA) and getting crushed on defense (29th). But last week they held Pittsburgh to 10 points and just 4.7 yards per play. That’s promising, and you don’t need promise to beat Jacksonville.

But this is the definition of a letdown game (coming off a big division win, playing the JAGUARS), and -5.5 seems pretty fair. A bit higher and I’d even consider the Jags. Their defense is slightly less than horrible and their offense occasionally has a pulse with Blake Bortles. I’m thinking about them first half; they’ve been starting games well as teams are possibly taking them for granted.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams*

I’m not big on trends, but fuck it, these ones are semi-legit and prove my point.

The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.
The Seahawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the NFC West.

They’re coming off a loss, playing a weak defense (and offense) in a division game. They will be fired up.

They’re a great teaser piece. Stay tuned.

Green Bay Packers* (-7) over Carolina Panthers

I don’t understand what happened to Carolina’s defense. They’re 28th in DVOA and were just torched (pun intended) by Andy Dalton (7.3 YPA).

Aaron Rodgers is deadly at home, and Green Bay is playing decent defense (13th in DVOA).

My only concern is Cam Newton is looking like himself again, and Green Bay is still vulnerable on D.

Then again, Aaron Rodgers is on a 13-game home winning streak, 12 of those coming by 7+ points. Green Bay -7 or in a teaser has to be the play here.

BET: TEASER, Packers -1/Seahawks -.5, $110 to win $100

Baltimore Ravens* (-7) over Atlanta Falcons

My problem here is you’re buying high on Baltimore and selling low on Atlanta. I hate the matchup for the Falcons — Atlanta is horrid on defense and Baltimore is great at home.

The line seems perfect, but as usual, there’s teaser potential with the Ravens. There’s always teaser potential around -7. But Improved Joe Flacco is clearly on steroids and will be busted before this game, so I’m staying away.

Buffalo Bills* (-5.5) over Minnesota Vikings

No chance I can back this crappy offense -5.5. But it’s probably justified; Buffalo’s defense is legit (7th in DVOA despite getting torched by New England), they’re generally good at home, and Minnesota is very bad.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints*

Detroit has inarguably been better than New Orleans so far, and they’re just 2.5-point favorites. New Orleans might have the worst defense in the leage (32nd in DVOA). They’re giving up 6 yards per play!

Detroit is dominating on defense (1st in DVOA, 1st in yards per play allowed). But to be fair, they’ve only played one good offense (Green Bay, who they held to an impressive 4.4 ypp).

The thing is: Detroit has been better, the Saints struggle on the road (2-9 ATS in their past 11), and while the Lions’ offense is struggling… the best antidote for that is playing the worst defense in the league.

BET: Lions -2.5 (-110), $220 to win $200

San Diego Chargers (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs*

The Chiefs have been sneaky-decent this year, and I don’t see any value here.

New York Giants (+6.5) over Dallas Cowboys*

Dallas in a letdown game; Giants in a near must win, division game. Buying New York low, selling Dallas high. Dallas is mediocre at best on defense (16th in DVOA), and the Giants are slightly better than mediocre on defense (12th).

But I’m waiting a bit to see if I can get +7.

BET: Giants, hopefully +7 or +7.5

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over Oakland Raiders*

Good defense and bad offense vs. bad defense and bad offense that shows some promise with David Carr. Fair. I’d maybe consider Zona if this drops below 3, but it probably won’t.

Denver Broncos* (-7) over San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is mediocre this year. They’re playing great defense, but it’s clear that Colin Kaepernick sucks a lot of the time.

Denver actually has a good defense (2nd in DVOA!), which means they’re nearly unstoppable, especially at home. But the 49ers are a tough matchup — they’ve already slowed down Dallas, Philly and Chicago.

Blah blah blah blah… you can tease this, and Peyton Manning is 17-2 in Denver during the regular season.

BET: TEASER, Seahawks -.5/Broncos -.1 (-110), $220 to win $200

Pittsburgh Steelers* (-3) over Houston Texans

The only thing uglier than these quarterbacks are their evenly-matched teams.

Last Week: 2-10 (.500) (-1,253) (GAHHHHHHHH)
Total: 28-29 (.491) -$288.42
Hypothetical Supercontest Picks: 15-10 (This Week: Broncos, Seahawks, Giants, Lions, Jets)

By the way, check out SportsGrid’s NFL Power Rankings, below:

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