Mountain West Preview: Who will emerge to challenge San Diego State?
Yahoo Sports will break down the top 10 leagues for the upcoming college basketball season working backward from No. 10 to No. 1. Here’s a look at our No. 8 league, the Mountain West.
Thanks to the return of all but two rotation players from last season and the arrival of the most decorated recruiting class in school history, defending Mountain West champion San Diego State is a deserving league favorite entering the new season.
Whether the gap between the Aztecs and the rest of the league is sizable or not depends on San Diego State’s ability to generate enough offense without graduated star Xavier Thames.
Thames averaged 17.6 points, 3.2 assists and 1.6 steals last season, but stats don’t begin to fully demonstrate his impact. Not only was he San Diego State’s emotional leader, he also was the Aztecs’ offensive catalyst, creating opportunities for himself or his teammates off high ball screens whenever the shot clock began to bleed dry.
San Diego State’s heir apparent at point guard will either be freshman Kevin Zabo or returning role players Aqeel Quinn and D’Erryl Williams, but the scoring burden will have to be shared by Dwayne Polee Jr., Winston Shepard, Matt Shrigley and perhaps some of the freshmen as the season goes along. Polee excelled late last season as a complementary scorer to Thames, but must prove he can do more than hit catch-and-shoot threes and score in transition. Shepard is an elite talent whose erratic decision making and wayward outside shot can sometimes overshadow his ability to attack the rim.
While San Diego State has top 15 potential if its offense proves more efficient than expected, it’s defense and rebounding that will likely be the Aztecs’ hallmark again this season. Returning starter Skylar Spencer and Arizona transfer Angelo Chol form an imposing frontline, while Poley, Shepard and Shrigley have impressive length and quickness for their positions and JJ O’Brien is a versatile position-oriented defender.
A huge reason San Diego State is the clear-cut Mountain West favorite entering the season is because so many other top teams lost so many key players.
All five UNLV starters departed this offseason, leaving the Rebels to build around three top 50 freshmen and a transfer point guard whose unselfishness and leadership ability should be huge assets. Similarly, New Mexico lost its core when Cameron Bairstow and Kendall Williams graduated and Alex Kirk left for the NBA a year ahead of schedule. And even Colorado State suffered a big setback when Louisville transfer Chane Behanan opted to turn pro and starting point guard Jon Octeus transferred.
Nonetheless, those three should still be in the mix to challenge San Diego State, as should Boise State, Fresno State and Wyoming.
The Broncos have to replace their top big man of the past couple years, but they have the perimeter firepower to make noise thanks to sharpshooting wing Anthony Drmic and point guard Derrick Marks. The Cowboys have plenty of experience, a sound defense and one of the elite players in the conference in Larry Nance Jr., assuming he is fully healthy from his Feb. 18 season-ending knee injury. And lastly, the Bulldogs are a threat too if the addition of Texas transfer Julien Lewis to the backcourt pays immediate dividend.
For the Mountain West to bounce back from last year’s two-bid disappointment, the league needs a couple of its second-tier teams to perform well in November and December and challenge San Diego State in conference play.
The Aztecs are the closest the Mountain West has to a sure thing next season. It’s up to San Diego State to generate enough offense to create separation between itself and the rest of the league. And it’s up to everyone else to replace what was lost this summer and work to narrow the gap.
MAKING A LIST
Best shooter: Riley Grabau, Wyoming. The Cowboys signed Grabau in April 2011 when assistant coach Scott Duncan read an article about him in the Denver Post, saw that he hadn’t committed to a school and asked head coach Larry Shyatt if he could go check the 6-foot-2 shooting guard out. Needless to say, that turned out to be a wise decision. Grabau blossomed into a perimeter marksman as a junior, scoring 10.1 points per game, sinking 42 percent of his threes and hitting a league-best 89.2 percent of his free throws.
Best playmaker: Cody Doolin, UNLV. Though Dave Rice has recruited a bevy of highly rated wings and big men during his UNLV tenure, the one thing his past few Rebels teams have lacked is a pass-first point guard with the unselfishness and leadership skills to bring out the best in his talented teammates. That will change this year thanks to the addition of Doolin, a pure point guard who averaged 13 points and 7 assists for San Francisco last season before leaving the program in December. Doolin will be counted on to organize the offense, distribute and provide leadership for a Rebels team that lost all five starters from last season.
Best defender: Larry Nance Jr., Wyoming. The son of the former Cleveland Cavaliers standout ranked in the top six in the Mountain West last season in steals, blocks and rebounds per game, highly impressive considering he also averaged 15.8 points per game and shot 54 percent from the field. Assuming Nance fully recovers from the season-ending knee injury he suffered in mid-February, he should be not only the league’s top defenders but also one of its best all-around players. Additionally, he can also defend as many as four positions.
Top NBA prospect: Rashad Vaughn, UNLV. With all five of starters from last season gone and not a single double-digit scorer returning, the Rebels have no choice but to lean on newcomers. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Vaughn, a 6-foot-6 wing who has deep range on his jump shot, can create off the dribble and boasts the confidence to keep shooting through a slump. Vaughn, Rivals.com’s No. 8 prospect in the Class of 2014, is a projected lottery pick in the 2016 draft, per DraftExpress.com.
Best backcourt: Boise State. Can the Broncos overcome the loss of top big man Ryan Watkins and bounce back after underachieving last season? If so, the resurgence will have to be spearheaded by their backcourt. Leading scorer Anthony Drmic is a better 3-point shooter than he displayed last season, point guard Derrick Marks excels creating his own shot off the dribble and combo guard Mikey Thompson is primed for a bigger role.
Best frontcourt: San Diego State. One of the biggest reasons the Aztecs could be one of the premier defensive teams in the nation is the presence of two shot-blocking big men who both can also hold position in the post and attack the offensive and defensive glass. Skylar Spencer is a returning starter for San Diego State, while Angelo Chol is a transfer who got buried in Arizona’s deep frontcourt but returns to his native San Diego primed for a breakout season at both ends.
Best recruiting class: UNLV. San Diego State had its best recruiting class ever and UNLV reeled in three top 50 recruits for the first time since the days of Jerry Tarkanian. Both classes are outstanding, but the short-term edge goes to the Rebels simply because more playing time is available immediately to the newcomers. Rashad Vaughn will be counted on for perimeter scoring as a freshman, while Dwayne Morgan is a versatile 6-foot-7 forward and Goodluck Okonoboh is a defensive presence in the paint.
Coach on the rise: Rodney Terry, Fresno State. The Bulldogs have overcome injuries and transfers to gradually improve in each of Terry’s three seasons, culminating in a 21-win season and a berth in the CBI finals last year. Terry hasn’t had a breakthrough yet — and he may not this season either with star Tyler Davis having graduated — but there are enough holdovers that Fresno State could certainly move up in the standings once again. And with Texas transfer Julien Lewis joining an already formidable backcourt, a jump into the Mountain West’s top three isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Coach on the hot seat: Dave Rice, UNLV. For all his many recruiting successes so far at UNLV, Rice hasn’t proven he can devise a system to utilize elite talent effectively. The Rebels failed to win an NCAA tournament game either of Rice’s first two seasons and missed the postseason altogether last year, an outcome brought on by poor team chemistry and the lack of a true point guard. UNLV will have a point guard this season in San Francisco transfer Cody Doolin, so that shouldn’t be a recurring issue. That’s good news for Rice, who certainly will feel some pressure if UNLV doesn’t at least look more organized than it did last season.
FACTS AND FIGURES
New coaches: None
Regular-season winner last season: San Diego State
Tourney winner last season: New Mexico
League RPI rank in each of past 3 seasons: 2013-14: 10th, 2012-13: 1st, 2011-12: 5th
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
