’14-15 fantasy hoops Mock Draft 1 – ESPN
By Tom Carpenter | ESPN.com
On Oct. 9, we gathered a number of our ESPN fantasy basketball experts (Rob Peterson, Jim McCormick, Michael Huang, Eric Karabell, Brian McKitish, James Quintong, Ross Marrinson, John Cregan, Joe Kaiser and yours truly) for a standard 10-team rotisserie mock draft with points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FG% and FT% categories but no turnovers. Read on, as I discuss the strategy behind my picks and get the lowdown on some of the more intriguing choices from our other participants.
This draft was done before news broke about Durant’s fractured foot. This being a roto league, he surely would have fallen out of the top spot because he could miss the first four to six weeks of the season, thus taking away a large chunk of the total production you want to see from your roto studs. However, I would be inclined to pull the trigger on him in the first round anyway. The safe play would be toward the end of the first round, but I will be giving him serious consideration as soon as Curry, Davis and James are off the board, depending on how deep my league is.
However, Durant is so prolific in head-to-head leagues, where early-season output matters little, that I will still take him with the No. 1 overall pick, so long as that six- to eight-week time frame appears realistic.
As for my first picks, working on the turn, I already liked my combination of Love and Westbrook before Westy got a bump in value due to Durant’s injury. It’s doubtful he will be available at the end of the first round anymore. With Love and Westbrook, I get stats in everything but blocks and FG%, though I think we are going to see Love shoot in the 47 percent range from the floor alongside LeBron.
Most of this second round is packed with relatively safe veterans who have established themselves as steady studs. I’ve seen Aldridge slipping a bit in recent mocks and think he is a terrific value where Karabell got him.
There is no shortage of love for Leonard in Fantasyland this fall. I’ve seen him go in the first round of an industry H2H league, and you took him 16th here. His upside is obvious, but a first- or second-round pick is a stiff price to pay for a player who hasn’t topped 12.8 PPG and whose ceiling is held in his coach’s hands. Do you think Gregg Popovich will turn Leonard loose?
McKitish: “Pops almost has to turn Kawhi loose this year, right? His team isn’t getting any younger, and he’s got a bona fide superstar in Leonard ready to take the reins. The good news for Kawhi owners is that he’s so efficient that he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to be effective. He was a top-10 fantasy player after the All-Star break last season with 14.7 points, 6.5 boards, 1.8 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers in just 30 minutes per game. Even if he only duplicates those numbers, he’ll be a great value at 16.”
I’m a buyer on Horford, despite his injury history in recent years. How can it not be fluky for a man to tear each of his pectorals in different seasons? Aside from those freak injuries, he has proved to be durable, and his overall fantasy game is underrated. I’d be willing to take him at the end of the second round.
You took one of my favorite head-to-head players this season (Drummond) in the third round. However, his free throws are going to be brutal on roto rosters and you paired him with Blake Griffin, who has his own free throw woes. Are you willing to punt that category?
Marrinson: “Andre Drummond, to me, is at worst a second-round fantasy player, so I was thrilled to get him this late, regardless of his struggles at the line. His multicategory versatility, with points, blocks, elite rebounding and FG%, more than compensates for the one-category ineptitude. Although I doubt he’ll be quite as bad as last year (41.8 FT%), drafting him does sort of mean you’re punting the FT% category, even though I tried to draft players who get to the free throw line frequently and shoot well there (Melo, Gordon, Deng, Rubio, etc.) to attempt to stay relevant in the category.”
MCW carries so much potential in points, dimes, boards and steals that I’m willing to eat his shoddy percentages. He is supposed to be over his shoulder injury and just turned 23, so he should be even better than his rookie breakout.
Three of your first four picks were bigs (Ibaka, Cousins, Vucevic). Hard not to love the impact that trio can bring to your fantasy squad. Were you targeting centers and power forwards early on?
Kaiser: “I had hoped to target some other thinner positions, like shooting guard and small forward, but with the No. 9 and 12 picks, the value was at the big positions. It was too soon to reach for a Nicolas Batum or Kawhi Leonard. What I like about Ibaka, Cousins and Vucevic is that not only do they solidify the rebounding category, they’re not going to ruin your free throw percentage. And in Ibaka, I have the league’s top shot-blocker. I am having some regrets about passing on Kevin Love at No. 9, however.”
Favors already has five years of NBA experience under his belt, which makes him a veteran. However, he is only 23 years old, which means the Utah Jazz have just scratched the surface of his long-term potential. It’s no secret that I target young, naturally talented players whose career arcs remain on the rise, and Favors fits the bill for sure. Here, I also hope that he and Horford will help balance out the weak shooting of Westbrook and MCW.
LeBron and D-Wade parted ways over the summer, but they are back together on your team. It’s a solid pairing, if Wade can stay healthy. During the draft, you said you like Wade better in roto than head-to-head. Why is that?
McCormick: “Wade’s ability — even as he’s aged — to provide healthy totals in crucial and rare categories like steals and blocks, in addition to a 20/5/5 slash pedigree, affords him significant roto influence even if we net a 65-game effort this season. In a weekly format, managers can’t easily afford to have Wade absent, as he’s been prone to rest on back-to-backs and for deliberate maintenance. Higher overall usage on both ends of the court in James’ absence is undoubtedly coming. I’m all-in, especially given that the risks are already baked into Wade’s price.”
I’m in the minority thinking that Jordan is overrated in most leagues. Sure, the boards and blocks are great, but his 67.6 FG% last season had little impact on 6.3 field goal attempts per game, and his horrific 42.8 FT% does count at 4.6 attempts per game. Nonetheless, my team needs blocks, and this is about the right spot for him in my book.
You pulled the trigger on Parker, the first rookie off the board in this draft. What are your expectations from the budding superstar rookie?
Huang: “I took Jabari Parker as the first rookie off the board, but I don’t at all think of it as a flier. He’s on a team that will offer him opportunity to score a ton, and he possesses the most polished offensive skills of any rookie this season. According to sources, he’s in terrific shape, lost about 20 pounds. Like Duke alumni Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer before him, that will prove transformative for a guy who was already the odds-on favorite for rookie of the year.”
Just like Jordan, I think Parker typically has been overrated too. As an aging vet who is on the downside of his career arc, he is not often found on my rosters. However, those percentages, scoring and assists were impossible to pass on at No. 70. Always be willing to be flexible with your game plan if the right opportunities present themselves.
I was really hoping that Pau Gasol would make it all the way back to me, but so goes it when you’re drafting on the turn. I think you got great value, and you ended up with both Gasols in this draft. What are your expectations for the Spaniards this season?
Quintong: “I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Pau outranks Marc this season, although both are very solid players at their positions. Marc seems as solid as ever and appears to be a very dependable across-the-board player. As for Pau, even with a talented Bulls roster around him, I still wouldn’t be surprised if his scoring is similar to last season with the Lakers, and even slightly higher. If anything, his percentages should be good as he’ll find better shots not having to carry the offense.”
Ideally, Stan Van Gundy will give Jennings the requisite structure and direction to bring the best out of the young point guard. Largely, that means better shot selection. If he can get his shooting up toward 42 FG%, he will be an absolute beast. I wouldn’t bet the farm on that coming to fruition, but I will drop a midround pick to see if things click.
Round 8 seems about right for Anderson, considering his health issues and uncertain role heading into the season. Were you happy getting him here?
Karabell: “At that point I had scorers and point guards and blocks and just needed a 3-point option. Anderson’s one of the best, and I love the PF-eligibility. Seemed a good time to draft him.”
This late in the draft, I can take Hibbert and drop him if he flunks out again. On the other hand, even during his disastrous 2013-14 campaign, Hibbert averaged 2.2 BPG. If he can come close to his 2012-13 production, he will be a steal at the end of Round 9.
You went back-to-back on Bucks players in Rounds 8 and 9 with Sanders and Antetokounmpo. We’ve seen glimpses of their fantasy upside, but do you think coach Jason Kidd will draw it out of them this season?
Peterson: “I went back-to-back on Sanders and Antetokounmpo in the draft because I needed blocks from Sanders and I thought I could gain some versatility from the Greek Freak. (And, being from Milwaukee, I always make room on my roster for at least one Buck.)
“For Sanders, there’s nowhere to go but up after his disastrous 2013-14 campaign. If he returns to his 2012-13 form, I got a steal this late in the draft. As for Antetokounmpo, new Bucks coach Jason Kidd is trying him at point guard this season. Will Kidd’s move manifest itself into fantasy gold? I’m probably a year too early for such optimism (and if this were a keeper league, I’d be golden), but it doesn’t hurt to get in on the ground floor of such an experiment. Antetokounmpo will get his chances this season. I just need to make sure I know when to use him.”
I’ve heard fair comparisons of Payton to Carter-Williams and Rondo, and he has a wide-open opportunity to pile up stats while directing the Magic’s offense this season. I’m not hesitating to draft any of the top rookie options this season, especially this late in the draft. View them as lottery tickets and see if you can get lucky.
I am extremely skeptical about Gallo’s ability to do anything of real value this season, but I was in need of a small forward and 3s, so he was worth a roll of the dice. Note that Jackson will go several rounds earlier now due to Durant’s injury.
I know predicting Popovich’s rotation is about as easy as predicting Russell Westbrook’s next fashion look, but what sort of floor and ceiling do you see from Danny Green this season?
Cregan: “The ceiling would only occur if Green ended up carving out 28 to 30 MPG, 12 points, 2.5 3-pointers, 1.5 steals, solid true shooting percentage. His floor is probably a notch higher than last season’s 9.5 to 10.5 PPG, 2.0 3-pointers and a steal.”
Again, just looking for 3s, and I think people are sleeping on Redick as a late-round pick this season. He averaged 15.2 PPG and 2.1 3-PPG last season and has room to improve on that.
I wanted Sims, who is an intriguing flier in the latter rounds of drafts but settled on Burks. He won’t be a quality all-around fantasy option, but if things click, he could score a lot of points. If he doesn’t have a hot start, I’ll drop him for a hot waiver pickup.
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