NHL Expert Picks: Forecasting the 2014-15 NHL season – CBSSports.com
Could the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning be the last teams standing this year? (USATSI)
It’s finally here. The summer of waiting will come to a close Wednesday night as a new NHL season kicks off with a slate of three games. Coming off of a thrilling postseason that culminated with the Los Angeles Kings surviving a postseason gauntlet to win the Stanley Cup, the new year really couldn’t get here soon enough.
What makes this season particularly exciting is exactly what makes a post like this so difficult to compile. Though we like to call these “expert picks,” even the best-researched of prognosticators is going to have a hard time accurately picking any season. But that’s not going to stop us from trying.
When sitting down to put together some predictions, the scratch paper on which I made my lists is full of X’s, strike-throughs and at least two or three question marks after a couple of picks. There was also a doodle of a small dog because I needed a break from trying to figure out the Metropolitan Division.
The fact that this season can go in so many different directions makes it all the more exciting. Even in this age of mainstream analytics, there’s enough randomness and luck in hockey (and the advanced stat proponents say as much, too) that well-reasoned projections can go out the window within weeks.
So with that in mind, it’s time to hit you with the Eye on Hockey predictions for 2014-15:
*-Wild Card
Explaining the picks
Metropolitan: The Metro is easily the most unpredictable of the four divisions. I think any of the top seven teams in the division have a shot at the playoffs, so I’m fully prepared to be wrong about this one.
The Penguins remain the clear front-runner for the division title. Even with a new coaching regime and some questions, as long as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are healthy, they’re going to be tough to top over the 82-game season. The Rangers also lost a lot from last year, but having Henrik Lundqvist in net and enough scoring talent up front keeps them among the class of the division. The Islanders addressed the key weaknesses of their team heading into the season with recent trades and offseason signings and should make their last year on Long Island memorable.
Despite the unpredictability of the Metro, I think both wild cards in the East are coming from this division, weirdly enough. The Blue Jackets are starting to come together with Ryan Johansen signed and Sergei Bobrovsky has the capability to carry this team into the postseason even as they endure injuries. Under Barry Trotz, the Capitals right the ship with improved defense and a better season from Braden Holtby, while that Alex Ovechkin character continues to score at an alarming rate.
I think the Devils are right on the cusp of being a playoff team and they just may make it, but their youth on defense is a moderate concern. The Flyers being this low was a tough choice, but without Kimmo Timonen, there are real blue line concerns and Steve Mason remains a bit of a question mark. The Hurricanes look to be in the driver’s seat for the first-overall pick this year after devastating injuries depleted an already shallow roster.
Atlantic: This Division appears to be fairly clearly tiered. The Bruins, Lightning and Canadiens are all in the upper tier, while the Red Wings, Maple Leafs, Panthers and Senators are in the mid-range, while the Sabres bring up the rear.
The Bruins may have lost some pieces last year and winning the President’s Trophy again seems unlikely, but with Tuukka Rask still protecting the net, they are going to be tough to topple in the Atlantic. Tampa Bay is one of the most exciting teams heading into the season but they are going to need Ben Bishop to stay sharp after a Vezina-caliber year. A healthy Steven Stamkos and deeper roster could take this team all the way. The Habs should have a lot of confidence after making it to the Eastern Conference Final and their subtle roster changes this offseason were for the better.
I had a really hard time with this one, but I think this might be the year the streak ends for the Red Wings. The injury concerns are too severe and the roster depth just isn’t there even as some young players step up. A lot of folks are predicting pain for the Maple Leafs this year, and while I don’t see the playoffs for them this season, I see a somewhat deeper team that stays competitive further into the year than most would expect. The Panthers are a real wild card in this season as they made some big moves in the summer and have a core of exceptional young players, but I don’t think they’re quite there yet.
The Ottawa Senators lost another big star in Jason Spezza and I wonder if scoring is going to be a problem for this group. The Sabres are probably a better team on paper right now than they were last year, but it’s hard to see dramatic improvement from a season ago as they remain in line for a top-three pick.
*-Wild Card
Explaining the picks
Central: The Central Division is probably the best overall division in hockey. The top five teams are very good and even the Predators should be better this season. Because of the competitiveness of the top of this division, a lot can happen. With five teams that could find a way to walk out with the division title, it’s going to be an incredibly fun battle to watch all year.
The Blackhawks remain the deepest team of this division and look primed for another deep postseason run after adding Brad Richards to an already-stacked offense. The Blues are definitely going to push the Blackhawks all year with great team depth, even if the goaltending situation is somewhat hard to get a good read on at this point. With all the work the Stars did this offseason to improve their overall forward depth, they could be a force all year as they should score a ton of goals with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn leading the charge.
This is another scenario where I think both wild cards come out of one division. The Wild have some serious concerns in net heading into the year, but their forward group gets a boost from the addition of Thomas Vanek. Though there’s a predicted regression for the Avalanche, I’m not so sure it will be as severe as is being projected with a forward group that is going to give a lot of opponents a tough time.
The Predators, an organization that seemed to never change, made a big alteration by adding Peter Laviolette as coach and boosted forward depth with outside additions. They’ll be better than last year, but the rest of this division is just too good at this point. Meanwhile, the Jets did very little this offseason and their goaltending situation remains a barrier to success for this club despite some real talent throughout the lineup.
Pacific: The battle of California seems to be set once again with all three of the Golden State’s teams looking to be the cream of the crop in the Pacific. The Kings, Ducks and Sharks could all battle for the to spot in the division this year, while the Canucks may be able to put up more of a fight this year.
The Kings are just too hard to pick against right now after experiencing barely any turnover from the Stanley Cup roster. They’ve not been the best in the regular season over the last few years, but expect a full season of Marian Gaborik and Tyler Toffoli to help keep scoring up.
The Sharks had a really weird summer, but they didn’t blow everything up and kept one of the most potent scoring attacks in the game intact. The Ducks made a splash by adding Ryan Kesler, but I think there will be some growing pains with the young goaltending tandem, even if they’re minor.
The Canucks have a chance for a big bounce-back year with coach Willie Desjardins at the helm. The roster looks a lot different heading into the year and I just don’t have enough confidence in this group to keep pace with the California clubs.
For whatever reason, I feel like the Oilers are going to take a step forward organizationally this year. Their goaltending situation is more settled and the defense has been addressed for improvement. They won’t be a playoff team, but they’ll show progression.
The Coyotes are really gunning for the postseason this year, but there are too many question marks when it comes to goal scoring and it’s been harder to figure out what Mike Smith can do to keep this team in it for a whole season. The Flames could get a boost from youth this year, but there’s not enough there to keep them competitive with this division.
Chris Peters’ 2014-15 Season NHL Picks | |||
Conference and Cup Finals | |||
Finish | East | West | |
Conference Champions | |||
Stanley Cup Champions |
Explaining the picks
Figuring out who is going to come out of the East is extremely tough, but I’ve got to go with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The depth they have throughout their lineup is exceptional, particularly on defense. Their Stanley Cup dreams are going to hinge on Bishop putting together a season like he did last year, which is certainly no guarantee as he has been a full-time starter for just that one season. With possible 50-60 goal man in Stamkos, a Norris contender in Victor Hedman and a cast of characters that play with speed and precision, they’re going to be fun to watch and could have a lot of success in a more wide-open conference.
Repeating is hard to do, and while the Kings should push for their third Stanley Cup in four years, the competition in the West is going to be way stiffer this year in the West.
The Blackhawks are going to have to deal with some salary cap constraints this year, but the roster they have now is as good as any in the league. Additionally, considering the big extensions for Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane kick in next year, this could be the last gasp of Chicago’s vaunted core that has been at the center of two Stanley Cup titles.
Now let’s drop the puck already.
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