NFL against the spread picks: Patriots? Bills? Who knows – Yahoo Sports (blog)
The New England Patriots‘ game against the Buffalo Bills sums up the NFL in 2014. Nobody knows much about either team.
If this game was a week ago, what are we talking about? The Patriots are finished! The Bills were a fraud at 2-0! Tom Brady is washed up! Kyle Orton isn’t any good!
This week? The Patriots are back! The Bills are back! All hail Tom Brady! All hail Kyle ….
Well, not that far on Orton, but he looked pretty good leading the win at Detroit. And the Patriots certainly looked great destroying the Bengals at home.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Orton, right, hugs teammate Fred Jackson (AP)
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Teams don’t change in 60 minutes. The Patriots barely beating the Raiders at home and getting embarrassed by the Chiefs didn’t happen that long ago. Their issues didn’t magically go away. Orton isn’t so good he erases all of the Bills’ issues. If you were going to Las Vegas, this is probably the game on the board you wouldn’t want any part of. But we’re not in Vegas (sigh) and we pick every game. We’ll take the Bills and their great home crowd and the three points they’re getting. But it wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots start playing up to their talent level after a momentum and confidence-building win against Cincinnati. It’s just impossible to have a good read on it. That’s the beauty (or, if you’re making picks, the frustration) of the NFL this season.
And here are the rest of this week’s picks, with the spreads coming from Yahoo’s Pro Football Pick ’em, as usual:
Colts (-3) over Texans (picked earlier): Never thought I’d be sweating this one out after that 24-0 first quarter. But, J.J. Watt.
Panthers (+6.5) over Bengals: My gut tells me the Bengals will pull what the Patriots did to them last week, and be extremely motivated after getting embarrassed. But the A.J. Green injury is enough for me to take the points.
Steelers (+1.5) over Browns: Cleveland is tough to read. It was an incredible comeback at Tennessee last week. But also, let’s not ignore that the Browns played poorly enough in the first half to fall behind 28-3 against a bad team. And the Steelers are just as tough to read, of course. I’ll ride with Ben Roethlisberger and his 18-1 record against the Browns.
Jaguars (+6) over Titans: It doesn’t look like Jake Locker is going to play for the Titans. But, even if he did, are you confident giving six points to anyone with this Tennessee team?
according to Football Outsiders’ brilliant DVOA, are one of three dominant teams so far (Denver and Seattle are the other two, everyone else is far behind those three). Aaron Rodgers is on a roll. Everything points to the Packers (and in today’s NFL that means the Dolphins win easy, but we’ll take our chances anyway).
Packers (-3.5) over Dolphins: Remember, the Dolphins basically have no home-field advantage. The Packers,Vikings (+1.5) over Lions: Teddy Bridgewater comes back for the Vikings. Calvin Johnson won’t play for the Lions (if they’ve finally smartened up and want to get him healthy). Reggie Bush might not play for the Lions either. And I still don’t trust the Lions.
Jets (+9.5) over Broncos: The line keeps moving up and up for the Broncos. If it reaches double digits it will be a first: The Jets have never been a double-digit home underdog since at least 1980, which is how far OddsShark’s database goes back. Here’s where we have to swallow hard and pick the Jets remembering that the obvious NFL pick is never obvious.
Buccaneers (+3) over Ravens: I think Tampa Bay has a little confidence now. And they accidentally stumbled into the right decision at quarterback, which helps.
Chargers (-7) over Raiders: I don’t know why this line isn’t double digits.
Falcons (-3) over Bears: Unless they move this game from the Georgia Dome at the last minute, I’m not picking against Atlanta.
Redskins (+3.5) over Cardinals: Going this way assuming Logan Thomas is starting at quarterback for the Cardinals. Thomas was 1-of-8 last week and if you watched him play at Virginia Tech, that doesn’t surprise you much.
Seahawks (-8) over Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense is allowing 6.4 yards per play, tied for the most in the NFL. The defense has been successful in part because the offense has sustained drives and limited the defense’s exposure. You think Dallas can put together long drives against that Seattle defense?
Eagles (-3) over Giants: Philadelphia isn’t even playing well, and it is 4-1. The Eagles are going to turn it on soon.
Rams (+3.5) over 49ers: The Rams usually play the 49ers better than you expect, and the 49ers still aren’t all that impressive this season.
Last week: 13-2
Season to date: 40-37
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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