ALCS preview: It’s the speed of the Royals vs. the power of the Orioles
If you’re looking for a fresh postseason matchup, the ALCS is where it’ll be. For the first time since 1985, the Kansas City Royals are one round away from the World Series, and they’ll be looking for history to repeat itself. In that season, they defeated both the Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis in seven games to claim their first and only World Series championship. Their opponents, the Baltimore Orioles, are back in the ALCS for the first time since 1997. They haven’t played in or won a World Series since 1983.
It’s something new, and it should be an exciting matchup of contrasting offensive styles. The Orioles have relied on power and scoring runs in bunches, much the same way Earl Weaver’s old teams did in the ’70s and ’80s. The Royals pressure the opposing defense with speed, though we’ve seen them muscle a little more in the postseason.
Both teams have solid starting pitching, stellar bullpens and play sound defense. So it will likely come down to whose offense executes. Here’s a deeper look.
SCHEDULE
Game 1: Friday in Baltimore, 8:07 p.m. ET (TV coverage on TBS)
Game 2: Saturday in Baltimore, 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 3: Monday in Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 4: Tuesday in Kansas City, 3:07 or 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 5:* Wednesday in Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 6:* Friday, Oct. 17, in Baltimore, 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 7:* Saturday, Oct. 18 in Baltimore, 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
* if necessary
PREVIOUSLY
The Royals took four of seven games during the regular season, outscoring Baltimore, 26-18. Kansas City went into Baltimore and won two of three April 25-27. The teams split a four-game series in Kansas City May 15-18.
PITCHING
Game 1: James Shields (14-8, 3.21) vs. TBD
Game 2: Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20) vs. TBD
Game 3: TBD
Game 4: TBD
Game 5: TBD
Game 6: TBD
Game 7: TBD
Both staffs are rested after their short ALDS and have a number of starting-pitching options. Orioles manager Buck Showalter doesn’t like to announce his pitchers too early, but it seems like a good bet that Chris Tillman (14-6, 3.35 ERA) will start Game 1 of the ALCS, as he did the ALDS. After Tillman, Baltimore sent out Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.71 ERA) and Bud Norris (15-8, 3.65), though Miguel Gonzalez is also in their rotation. Kevin Gausman had a strong showing out of the bullpen in ALDS Game 2, so he could be a candidate to start too. Orioles starters and Royals starters were just about even in the regular season. The Orioles had a 3.61 starting ERA, 12th in the MLB, and the Royals were 11th with a 3.61 ERA. After Shields and Ventura, Royals manager Ned Yost have some options in Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy and Jeremy Guthrie. Vargas started in ALDS Game 1.
THREE KEYS FOR ROYALS
• Quality starts: Kansas City’s rotation is deeper than you might think behind James Shields, and the success of their staff is playing a key role in their current run. The quality start stat (at least six innings pitched with no more than three runs allowed) is often dismissed, but it holds significance to the Royals. During the regular season, they were 64-31 when their pitchers had a quality start. They got three more in their ALDS sweep of the heavily favored Angels. Sure, the Orioles dispatched of Detroit’s three aces, but Detroit’s bullpen contributed there. Kansas City’s bullpen will be far more stable.
• Kelvin Herrera’s health: Herrera quieted concerns over his ailing forearm with a dominant inning in ALDS Game 3. If he holds up, that keeps the Royals late-inning trio — along with Wade Davis and Greg Holland — intact, and puts more urgency on Baltimore to score early.
• Trotting works, too: It’s well documented that Kansas City led baseball with 153 stolen bases while the fewest homers at only 95. Sometimes, though, those instant runs come in handy. Both the Royals and Cardinals, who had the fewest home runs in the NL, showed how handy in the LDS. The Royals hit four in that series, including two game winners in extra-innings. That will need to continue to steal a game in the ALCS as well.
THREE KEYS FOR ORIOLES
• Slow down the Royals running game: This isn’t football analysis and we’re certainly not talking about the Ravens. The Royals team speed has caused fits all season long and the way Ned Yost uses his pinch runners makes it difficult for the opposition to work around. That means Showalter will have to be proactive, and that could mean Caleb Joseph gets significant playing time despite being hitless in his last 33 at-bats. Joseph led the AL by cutting down at 40 percent of base stealers this season. Nick Hundley, who has been logging most of the time, only cut down 14 percent. That difference might be enough to sacrifice some offense.
• Keep mashing: Home runs are the Orioles’ game. They led MLB with 211 during the regular season, and they’d be well served to keep launching in this series. Granted, it won’t be easy. Kansas City’s staff only allowed 128, tied for eighth fewest in MLB. But the best way to get these relentless Royals off their gameplan is to keep scoring
• Win at home: Home-field advantage seems to mean less as we progress deeper into October — lots of teams that have advanced played well on the road. That said, Kauffman Stadium isn’t a fun place to play right now, so it would benefit Baltimore to hold serve at home. The Orioles were 50-31 at home this season and 46-35 on the road, including the two wins in K.C. There’s no reason to panic if they drop Game 1 or 2. But the idea of needing to win twice in Kansas City seems daunting.
FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS
• 10 — The number of home runs Nelson Cruz has hit in his last 17 postseason games.
• 1,143 — The postseason slugging percentage of Eric Hosmer. In 503 regular season at-bats, he slugged just .398.
• 7 — Career wins for James Shields in 13 starts at Camden Yards. He has nine wins in 35 starts at Kauffman Stadium, his home ballpark for the past two seasons.
• 8 — The number of different Royals to steal bases during four postseason games. They’ve stolen 12 overall.
• 116 — Difference between Baltimore’s league-high total of 211 homers and Kansas City’s league-low 95 homers.
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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813
