Colts and Giants Erase Memories of 0-2 Starts – New York Times
By CHASE STUART
October 7, 2014
About three weeks ago, you probably heard some variation on the following statistic: Since 1990, only 12 percent of teams that started 0-2 ended up making the playoffs. Seven teams started 0-2 this season, but two of those have rebounded with three-game winning streaks.
Andrew Luck leads the N.F.L. in passing yards and touchdowns while posting a 100 passer rating. His Colts lead the league in points scored, and Indianapolis has the second-best point differential in the N.F.L., behind the San Diego Chargers. The Colts, division champions in 2013, are back on top of the A.F.C. South, tied with the Houston Texans for the division’s best record. As a result, it is probably hard to even remember that only three weeks ago, the Colts were one of those struggling 0-2 teams.
The A.F.C. South was the worst division in football last year, and not much has changed in 2014. In interdivision games, A.F.C. South teams are 5-11, the worst record of any division. That is one of the biggest reasons the Colts were able to jump from last to first place so quickly. Indianapolis has feasted on its poor division.
Indianapolis has also played better since the rough start. Over the first two weeks, the Colts ranked 26th, according to Football Outsiders; since then, Indianapolis has ranked as the seventh-best team over the past three weeks. In addition to Luck’s success, the team’s defense has played noticeably better during the three-game winning streak. Defensive backs Vontae Davis and Mike Adams have played very well in coverage, and each has had two interceptions over the last three games. And while the pass rush may still be a question mark, with Robert Mathis lost for the year, Bjoern Werner and Cory Redding have combined for four sacks, five quarterback hits and 15 hurries.
Things were looking even more dire for the Giants after an 0-2 start. The biggest reason for the team’s subsequent success has been the play of quarterback Eli Manning. After an ugly opening night in Detroit, Manning has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. According to ESPN, Manning ranks fourth in total quarterback rating over the last four weeks, at 87.3, behind only Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo. Tight end Larry Donnell has caught 25 of the 32 passes thrown in his direction, while Rashad Jennings has 11 receptions on 13 targets. As a result, Manning is completing more than 66 percent of his passes, easily the best rate of his career.
After two weeks, Football Outsiders ranked the Giants as the 29th-best team in football; since then, the Giants have been the top team in the N.F.L., with a defense-adjusted value over average rating of 44.5 percent. Football Outsiders also ranks the Giants in the top five in both the offensive and defensive ratings over that span.
FALCONS’ SMITH SHINES Atlanta Falcons running back Antone Smith, 29, had only one carry before 2013, and even now, he has just 17 carries and eight receptions for his career. But on those 25 touches, Smith has managed to score an incredible six touchdowns over the last two years, and none has been of the short-yardage variety. In fact, all six of his career touchdowns have been 38 yards or longer. In four of the first five weeks, he has scored on a long touchdown, including a 74-yard catch and run against the Giants in Week 5. Smith’s four touchdowns in 2014 have totaled 214 yards. That is the most yards gained on touchdowns in the N.F.L. through five weeks.
Over the last calendar year, Smith has gained 302 yards on plays on which he scored a touchdown and 130 on all other plays. And Smith became the first running back since the former Colt Lenny Moore in 1960-61 to score six consecutive touchdowns of at least 35 yards. Despite that level of production, Smith has recorded only four touches in each of the last three weeks. While no player could keep up that level of efficiency over a larger sample size, Smith has earned the right to become a bigger part of the Atlanta offense.
SHORT PASSES GAIN TRACTION Through five weeks, the N.F.L. is on pace for another record-breaking season. Teams are completing 63.7 percent of their passes, more than 1.5 percentage points higher than the completion percentage through five weeks in any other season in league history. Through 152 games, teams are averaging 23.2 points per game. That is the most through five weeks in any season since 1970.
In addition, sacks are becoming harder than ever. The lowest sack rate for a full N.F.L. season was 5.9 percent in 1994, but quarterbacks are being dropped on just 5.3 percent of all dropbacks so far in 2014.
Through five weeks, 11 quarterbacks — including Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler — have gained more than half of their passing yards via yards after the catch by their receivers. Traditionally, the best quarterbacks were known for their vertical passing, but that is no longer the case in the modern N.F.L. The three passers with the longest average gains through the air on completions this year are Drew Stanton (8.63), Brian Hoyer (8.48) and Mike Glennon (7.91), who combined for only 21 starts before 2014.
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