Spread Options: Dr. Saturday’s Week 6 picks against the spread
Week five had some slight regression, but it wasn’t terrible.
After going 5-5 last week, we’re now at 19-31. We are far from the 1-9 weeks of weeks one and two. Let’s see what we’ll hit on this week.
Florida at Tennessee (-2.5), Noon ET: Remember when this would have been one of the biggest games of the weekend? Now it may be the fourth-best game in the SEC. The Vols giving less than a field goal at home is tempting because of Tennessee’s performance at Georgia and Florida’s performance at Alabama. While the Gators may not be as bad as they showed against the Crimson Tide, these are two evenly matched teams. The home team gets the edge.
Texas A&M (+2.5) at Mississippi State, Noon ET: The Aggies are the pick here only because it’s the team getting points. I have no idea what to think about this game. Can A&M’s defense step up and play like it did in the late stages against Arkansas? Who is a better QB, Kenny Hill or Dak Prescott? Saturday’s game could break the losing quarterback’s Heisman chances.
SMU at East Carolina (-41), Noon ET: Sorry SMU. This pick feels really mean, but it’s hard not to envision the East Carolina offense not lighting the Mustangs up. While we appreciate the optimism that interim coach Tom Mason showed this week by saying a bowl and the conference were still up for grabs for his SMU team, there’s no chance SMU wins Saturday.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-3), 12:30 p.m. ET: There’s no figuring out what Virginia Tech or North Carolina are at this point. The Hokies broke a two-game losing streak last week but it was against Western Michigan. North Carolina is on a two-game losing streak of its own after losses to East Carolina and Clemson. Much like the Florida and Tennessee game, homefield advantage is the deciding factor.
Oklahoma (-5) at TCU, 3:30 p.m. ET: This line screams trap game for Oklahoma, but since it’s under a TD, the Sooners are still the pick. The game against West Virginia showed that Oklahoma can run against teams without a fully effective Trevor Knight. And to win, OU will need to be balanced. TCU is giving up just over 3 yards per play on defense, the best in college football. It’s close, but the Sooners win by a TD.
Stanford at Notre Dame (+2.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame getting points at home to a team it’s ranked above? Yes please. Everett Golson’s ability as a passer is key to this game and he’s shown that Notre Dame can win without a strong running game this season. The reason why this line is the way it is? Stanford is giving up 74 yards per game passing; the Cardinal and San Jose State are the only two teams giving up less than 100 yards a game. Golson ups that average.
Baylor (-15) at Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET: The comments that Texas players have made about Baylor this past year isn’t going to keep this game close. While the Longhorn defense has showed flashes of excellence this season, the Texas offense is simply not equipped to keep up with Baylor. Even if Texas holds Baylor to under 30, can Texas score more than two touchdowns?
Alabama (-4.5) at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. ET: Potentially the best team in the country favored by less than a touchdown? Yes please. Blake Sims is a far better QB than Bo Wallace and there’s a nagging feeling that Wallace will commit an untimely turnover or two. Ole Miss has the capability to keep this one close, but if it’s a blowout, the odds favor it going in Alabama’s direction.
Kansas (+28) at West Virginia, 4 p.m. ET: The Jayhawks are the pick simply because of some potential interim coach mojo. Interim coach Clint Bowen, a Kansas grad, is a legitimate candidate for the permanent position. And the Big 12 team that Kansas beat last year? West Virginia. It’s not a second straight win over the Mountaineers, but it’s not an embarrassment either.
Pitt at Virginia (-5), 7:30 p.m. ET: Mike London for ACC coach of the year? Sure, the Cavaliers are 3-2, but Virginia was picked as the doormat of the ACC. It’s not. Since beating Boston College, Pitt has gone full Pitt, making a game with FIU closer than it should have been and losing to Iowa and Akron at home. In its 41-33 loss to BYU, Virginia held the Cougars to 148 yards rushing. The Cavaliers are well-equipped to deal with James Conner.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
