NFL against the spread picks: This isn’t parity

This isn’t parity we’re seeing in the NFL. Just because a lot of teams have similar records doesn’t mean this season can be defined by parity.

We’re seeing a ton of blowouts this season, and last week was the worst. The average margin in last week’s games was more than 17 points. Only three of 13 games were decided by less than a touchdown.

Parity means everyone is practically equal. That would result in good, competitive games, and that clearly hasn’t been the case. What’s happening this season is teams change in a really violent way from week to week. It’s not that teams lose by three points one week and win by three points the next. They’re winning by three touchdowns and then losing by three touchdowns seven days later. Pick just about any team outside of a handful of really good or really bad teams, and you’ll find all of them have had results that have no correlation with the result before or after it.

That isn’t to excuse last week’s incredibly poor record here (hey, I told you right away I’m not doing this because I’m a professional handicapper), but the fact is the league is as unpredictable as it has ever been. Hey, two weeks ago Buffalo Bills fans thought they had one of the best teams in football, and this week the team benched quarterback EJ Manuel. And you know what? In two weeks Bills fans might think they’re one of the best teams in football again. Instead of every season bringing about a renewed sense of optimism in the NFL, we’re in hyperspeed and now every week starts with a clean slate it seems.

So what will happen this week? Clearly we don’t know, but let’s give it a try anyway:

Packers (-8.5) over Vikings (picked earlier): I wasn’t picking Christian Ponder.

Cowboys (-6) over Texans: At some point, the Cowboys have to be given some respect until proven otherwise.

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Buffalo (+7) at Detroit: I don’t agree with benching Manuel, in the big picture. But right away, I can see Sammy Watkins being really happy to have a quarterback who can throw it somewhere near his catch radius.

Browns (+2) over Titans: It’s probably a mistake to buy into the Browns on the road at this point, but it’s pretty easy to go against Tennessee.

Colts (-3.5) over Ravens: Not going against Andrew Luck when he’s hot.

Buccaneers (+10) over Saints: High probability this is the “Drew Brees goes nuts” game that we all know is coming at some point. But the Saints have done absolutely nothing to deserve being a double-digit favorite.

Giants (-4) over Falcons: The Falcons can’t be trusted on the road.

Rams (+7) over Eagles: St. Louis has one sack this season. One. Still, there’s talent on that defensive line, and the Eagles’ offensive line is a real problem.

Panthers (-2.5) over Bears: The Panthers are one of the many roller coaster teams. Two weeks ago everyone was in love with them. Now they’re not even having to give a field goal against a Chicago team that just lost by 21 at home.

Steelers (-6) over Jaguars: You’d like to think that the Steelers are good enough, motivated off a loss, to pound a pretty hapless Jaguars team.

Broncos (-7.5) over Cardinals: Going this way because it sure seems by the line like the oddsmakers would like very much for everyone to grab the 3-0 Cardinals getting more than a touchdown.

Jets (+6.5) over Chargers: Only because in this up-and-down NFL, the struggling Jets playing close with the hot Chargers is what’s scripted to happen.

Chiefs (+6) over 49ers: I don’t think Alex Smith is that great, but you know his motivation won’t be an issue.

Patriots (+1) over Bengals: Because it makes no sense that this would happen. And “makes no sense” is what this season in the NFL is.

Seahawks (-7) over Redskins: Even though this is what “should” happen, going the other way means Kirk Cousins against that defense. No thanks.

Last week: 2-11
Season to date: 27-35

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab