ALDS preview: Orioles try to knock Tigers off their playoff pedestal

A lot of people didn’t expect the Baltimore Orioles to be here, the AL East champs, with home-field advantage in the divisional round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, most expected the Detroit Tigers would be in the postseason again. The Tigers are in the ALDS for the fourth straight season, and they’ve advanced each time.

These aren’t the same Tigers we’ve seen in the past few years. They’re better in some ways (those three Cy Youngs are scary) and worse in others (the bullpen is a different kind of scary). Meanwhile, the Orioles are a team with a potent lineup, better-than-you-think pitching and they haven’t let injuries derail them. 

Detroit owned Baltimore in the season series, but those games were played back in April and May. The Orioles are a better, more confident team now. The Tigers are a different team too. They added David Price. Victor Martinez stepped up with an MVP-like season. 

SCHEDULE
Game 1: Thursday at 5:37 p.m. ET in Baltimore (TV coverage on TBS)
Game 2: Friday at 12:07 p.m. ET or 3:07 p.m. ET in Baltimore (TBS)
Game 3: Sunday, at 3:37 p.m ET, in Detroit (TBS)
Game 4*: Monday, time TBA, in Detroit (TBS)
Game 5*: Wednesday, time TBA, in Baltimore (TBS)
* if necessary

PREVIOUSLY
The Tigers won five of the six head-to-head meetings this season, including a three-game sweep at Camden Yards, May 12-14. Detroit took two-of-three at home April 4-6.

PITCHING
Game 1: Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15) vs. Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34)
Game 2: Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54) vs. TBD
Game 3: TBD vs. David Price (15-12, 3.26)
Game 4: TBD vs. Rick Porcello (15-13, 3.43)
Game 5: TBD

Detroit’s rotation features the last three AL Cy Young winners in David Price, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, not to mention Rick Porcello, who’s finally living up to the hype after a slow start to his career. On the other side, the Orioles don’t have a Cy Young candidate, let alone a former winner, but they have starters Buck Showalter will be confident using in Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez. On brandname and experience, Detroit has the edge, but they also have more pressure to work deep considering their bullpen issues. Because of Baltimore’s stronger bullpen, Showalter will happily take six quality innings from his guys.

THREE KEYS FOR TIGERS
Justin Verlander: Detroit’s cornerstone hasn’t been nearly as sharp this season as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him. His 4.54 ERA was his highest since 2008, while his 206 innings pitched were a low since that same season. Verlander’s velocity dipped early in the season and he ended up missing one start in August with a shoulder issue. The good news is he’s looked healthy lately and finished strong in his final two regular season starts. He’ll get the Game 2 start over David Price, which signifies Brad Ausmus’ confidence.

Don’t let Nelson Cruz beat you: The Orioles won’t be at full strength with Manny Machado and Matt Wieters injured and Chris Davis still serving his 25-game PED suspension. Even still, it’s a difficult lineup to navigate with several tough outs. That includes old nemesis Nelson Cruz, who in the 2011 ALCS hit six home runs against Tigers pitching. He led MLB with 40 longballs, so there’s no doubt he’ll be swinging for the fences.

J.D. and Victor Martinez: Miguel Cabrera looked healthy and locked in during September’s stretch run, hitting .379 with eight home runs and 18 RBIs. That alone makes Detroit’s offense dangerous. Now factor in the presence of both J.D. (.319 average, 22 home runs) and Victor Martinez (.335, 32), and it could prove unstoppable. Together, they have more than made up for the loss of Prince Fielder, while adding one extra difficult out to the order.

THREE KEYS FOR ORIOLES
Protect the home field: It’s sounds cliché, but it could be that simple for Baltimore. Despite the previously mentioned sweep in Baltimore by Detroit, the Orioles posted a 50-31 record at home, good for fifth best in MLB. They just can’t afford to let Detroit make that statement again in their stadium. Going to Detroit with anything less than a 2-0 lead changes their outlook immensely.

Get to Detroit’s bullpen: Detroit’s bullpen situation has been somewhere between chaos and dumpster fire all season long. It hasn’t helped that rookie manager Brad Ausmus has struggled defining roles, particularly for his middle relievers. Having Anibal Sanchez available in that role could help, but it will come down the performance of veterans Joe Nathan, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke, all of whom have been consistently shaky. Detroit’s 4.29 bullpen ERA is third worst in MLB.

The role players: As noted, the Orioles are undermanned in the ALDS, but you won’t hear any excuses from their clubhouse. They’ll continue relying on role players like Steve Pearce, Caleb Joseph, Jonathan Schoop and even veteran Delmon Young, and they’ll do so confidently. Of that bunch, Pearce is the key man. He hit a career-high 21 homers in 102 games, it seems like most of his home runs came at just the right moment.

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS
• 44 — Orioles team stolen bases in 2014, which ranked last in MLB. Earl Weaver would love this Orioles team. They’re perfectly content going for the three-run homer.

• 9.00 — Career postseason ERA for Joe Nathan in nine appearances.

• 12 — Home runs for Miguel Cabrera in 52 career postseason games covering four different seasons.

• .500 — Adam Jones’ career batting average against Max Scherzer in 18 at-bats

• 5.54 — Baltimore’s team ERA in six games against Detroit this season.

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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813