AL wild card preview: The Royals and A’s fight for their postseason lives

Talk about two teams desperate to win — the Oakland Athletics haven’t won consistently since the start of August and the Kansas City Royals haven’t even played in the postseason since 1985.

When they enter Tuesday night’s AL wild-card game, a good portion of both fanbases will be hoping for the best, but fearing the absolute worst in the back of their minds. Losing sticks with you like that, whether it’s short-term, like the Athletics’ sluggish second half or long-term, like the Royals nearly 30 years of disappointment. 

The A’s were the best team in baseball the first three months of the season, but 22-33 since Aug. 1. They authored a late-season collapse that almost caused them to miss the playoffs. The Royals, meanwhile, are the Cinderellas, the underdogs people without a team will root for, just to oust futility. Forget the postseason, the Royals have only finished above .500 nine times since 1985. Last year, they sniffed the playoffs. This year, they made it. 

Whoever wins this wild-card game, a monkey is coming off their back, that’s for sure.

PARTICULARS
First pitch is at 8:07 p.m. ET Tuesday at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. The game airs live on TBS, with a pregame show beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET. Rosters haven’t been announced yet.

PITCHERS
Two guys you associate with big games are starting in this one. The A’s send Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) to the mound against Royals ace James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA). 

The two pitchers aren’t specifically linked, but they were the prize return in two of the most second-guessed trades of the past few years. The A’s gave up slugger Yoenis Cespedes to land Lester from the Boston Red Sox and their offense hasn’t had as much pop since. (Though there are more factors than Cespedes being traded). The Royals, meanwhile, acquired Shields from the Tampa Bay Rays two years ago for top prospect turned Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, a deal that looked like the Royals mortgaging their future to chase a postseason berth.

Well, the Royals made it. To a do-or-die game at least. They’ll need Shields to live up to that “Big Game James” nickname (more on that in a bit). He faced the A’s twice this year, going 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA. The Royals won both games. Lester, meanwhile, is a proven winner in the postseason. He won two games in the 2013 World Series and has a career 2.11 ERA in 11 postseason starts.

It could be the losing pitcher’s final start in their team’s uniform. Both are free agents after this season.

PREVIOUSLY
The Royals led the season series 5-2 against the A’s, all seven games were played during Oakland’s August free-fall. The Royals also won three of four in Kansas City. However, here’s one reason for Royals fans to fret — both of the club’s losses to the A’s came when Lester was on the mound.

THE ROYALS WILL WIN IF
They get to the seventh inning with a lead. The Royals are a staggering 65-4 if they’re leading at the top of the seventh inning. They owe that to their stellar bullpen trio of closer Greg Holland, setup man Wade Davis and seventh-inning clincher Kelvin Herrera. They have a combined ERA of 1.28 this season.

THE A’S WILL WIN IF
They score early. The A’s pitching has been good the past two months, it’s the offense that’s been sputtering. The A’s lost an absurd 10 games by one run in September, including three out of their last five games to end the season. When the A’s score early and give their pitchers some breathing room, they do well.

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS
• .433 — The Athletics winning percentage in the second half, the lowest of any playoff team since 1933. Ouch! 

• 95 — Homers hit this season by the Royals, the lowest total in the league. So they obviously don’t win by the long ball.

• 4.98 — Shields’ career ERA in the postseason, proving his “Big Game James” nickname hasn’t been vetted against his playoff performance. It’s a small sample size — only six starts — but still proves he’s not exactly as “Big Game” as some believe.

• .480 — Oakland outfielder Josh Reddick’s batting average over the past week. He’s had an up-and-down season, but he’s been hot recently, driving in seven runs in the past seven days. The rest of the A’s offense has driven in 17 during that time. 

• 153 — Stolen bases by the Royals, a league high. So while they don’t trot around the bases too often for homers, the Royals move around the bases at their own speed.

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Mike Oz is an editor for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz